@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy
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BM_Visser

@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy

Professor Energy Transition & Networks Hanze University Groningen, The Netherlands.
Manager Strategy Gasunie
Fellow Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP).
Blogs (in Dutch) on www.Energiepodium.nl.
Facts matter!

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BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Germany is the top counttry for the European wind industry.
Would you have guessed right the numbers 2 and 3?

BM_Visser,
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@jpnp

Ai, I forgot!

UK is with 29.622 MW (source: WindEurope) just behind Spain.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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In the last 7 years, electricity production from solar PV and wind has been doubled.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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In February 2024, EU natural gas demand was 23% (!) less than its 'pre-crisis' average in February 2017-2021.

Main causes are:
the relative warm weather;
lower industrial production due to high prices for natural gas, CO2 and power; and
the growth of wind and solar power.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Which EU country had the highest share of solarPV in its electricity mix in 2023?

Note: my guess was Greece, but I was wrong.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Power demand & generation in 2023 from India, China, USA and EU27. Preliminary data.

Note the significant differences in power demand per inhabitant.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Yesterday, the Dutch offshore wind parks generated 90.000 MWh of wind energy; equal to about 25% of Dutch power demand that day.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Preliminary data show that the Netherlands has surpassed 'World Champion" Australia with respect to solarPV capacity per inhabitant.

Since Australia is much more sunny than the Netherlands, its solar production per inhabitant exceeds the Dutch one significantly.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Between 2017 and 2023, the percentage of renewable electricity in EU27 has increased from 29% to 44%.

Including nuclear, the percentage CO2-free electricity has increased from 55% to 67%. Two-thirds!

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Last year, power demand in almost all EU countries decreased. On average, by 6%.

This had major consequences for the utilisation of coal and gas-fired generation, since these are the most expensive ones with regard to marginal costs. And so, less CO2-credits (ETS) were needed for th EU power sector.

Moreover, the decrease in the EU power demand boosted the percentage renewables, since hydro, wind and solar production is hardly affected by lower demand.

Sustainable2050, to solar
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Solar PV capacity still chugging along at +4 GW/year in the Netherlands, reaching 24 GW by end-2023. That's 1.35 kW per inhabitant, and way above the national peak demand (~18 GW)
Fed by generous government support, including continued net metering for residential systems.

Graph by @BM_Visser on the birdsite.

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@gabrielesvelto @Sustainable2050
Correct. see the correlation between Dutch solar production and (net) Dutch exports.From the graph, it can be concluded that the Dutch export about 40% of their total solar production.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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My new blog on Energiepodium: (in Dutch). "Save the European chemical and pharmaceutical industry!"

https://energiepodium.nl/artikel/red-onze-chemische-en-farmaceutische-industrie

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Development of Dutch renewable energy, varioussources, per Month.
Since 2017, the fraction of rewables in Dutch final energy consumption has increased from 6% to 18%.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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The total length of separate cycle paths in the Netherlands exceeds the total length of all Dutch men and women.
Is this unique in the world ?

The 'cycling province' Drenthe has more than 4 meters of separate cycle path per inhabitant.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Natural gas demand in Dutch gas-fired power stations 2010-2023 varies significantly.

Affected by the rise and fall of coal in 2010-2020 and since then, the rapid growth of Dutch solar and wind.

Be aware that the significant Dutch power generation in gas-fired cogeneration units is not incuded in this figure.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Last week, 60% of the Dutch electricity consumption came from renewable sources.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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EU strives for 42,5% renewables in 2030. However, not all member states have policies in place even to come close to their 'fair contribution'.
Examples are the Netherlands, Belgium and France.
Since 2030 is only a few years away, it will be a 'challenge' for the EU to get to 42,5%, I presume. Agree?

image/png
image/png

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Yesterday evening, in the Netherlands a record amount of 9,65 GW of (onshore + offshore) wind power was harvested. This was equal to about 65% of the Dutch power demand that moment.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Despite 50% lower prices for natural gas y-o-y, EU gas demand continues to be about 15% lower than the average demand over 2017-2021.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Since 2014, the normalized volatility of the (Dutch) day ahead electricity prices is rather flat.
Any explenation?

Note that, in 2014, about 5% of Dutch electricity was generated by solar and wind, while currently, this is about 50%.
Moreover, electricity prices in 2022-2023 were a multiple of the prices in the years 2014-202..

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Development of the Dutch power mix.
Since 2014, renewable energy (solar, wind and biomass) has increased from 10% to 50%.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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This type of variations in the frequency of electricity arise because market participants act on price variations per hour (or per 15 minutes).
Would the addition of many GW of batteries to the system result in an increase or decrease of these variations?

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Last week, 43% of the Dutch electricity demand came from renewable sources.

For the full year 2024, I expect an average percentage of renewable electricity of 57%.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Although natural gas and CO2 prices have almost halved y-o-y, European companies still pay about for times more for energy* than its North American peers.

*note that on both sides of the ocean, electricity prices are closely linked to natural gas prices and, in Europe, natural gas + CO2 prices.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

The significant effect of wind (and a bit of solar) power generation on the usage of Dutch gas- and coal-fired power stations
(January 2024).

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