@peterdutoit@mastodon.green
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peterdutoit

@peterdutoit@mastodon.green

𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿: FutureWork IQ | I speak about mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis | b. 316 ppm | 🇿🇦

𝗠𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆: Posts are set to auto delete after 30 days in an endeavour to assist with keeping server storage at a minimum. Important archives on listed blogs!

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peterdutoit, to climate
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Tomorrow South Africa’s 27 million registered voters head to the polls.

How we vote will determine the countries direction on climate.

Results of the 2019 national election in South Africa
Final pre election poll showing ruling ANC government below its usual majority

peterdutoit, to Mexico
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Swallowed by the rising sea

“According to Greenpeace, El Bosque [Population 700] is the first community in Mexico to be officially recognised as displaced by climate change.

“In February, the Tabasco state congress approved the relocation of El Bosque.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/5/28/submerged-homes-and-heatwaves-fuel-mexico-climate-angst

Graph showing sea level rise acceleration trend

peterdutoit, to climate
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14 September 2023: “It is now almost certain that the 12-month running mean temperature will exceed 1.5°C by May 2024 or earlier.” —Hansen et al

April 2024: 12-month running mean temperature +1.63°C (Berkeley Earth & ERA5 datasets)

Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/FlyingBlind.14September2023.pdf

Berkeley Earth: https://berkeleyearth.org/april-2024-temperature-update/

ERA5: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2024Heatwave

peterdutoit,
@peterdutoit@mastodon.green avatar

@hansbot and collapse will look something like this

https://bsky.app/profile/peterdutoit.com/post/3ktcfqrjtsk2v

peterdutoit,
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@justafrog we are currently heating at 0.36ºC per decade.

At this rate 2º will be upon us in the next 16 years

peterdutoit, to climate
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Basically anywhere south of San Antonio, Texas is facing extreme heat today, matching what is happening in Mexico

#ClimateCrisis #Texas #Heatwave

peterdutoit, to climate
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Reminder: People who need to urgently begin adaptation conversations are those who:

  1. Live in places that are already close to thermal limits
  2. Live near seasonal rivers and ice
  3. Live along coastlines.

These places are the frontlines of the expanding

peterdutoit, to climate
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While we watch extreme weather events trash our only home let us never forget what is driving this.

This is the root cause and fossil CO2 plays the biggest role. We have to, by every means possible, fight to keep fossil fuels in the ground!

2024 projected total emissions growth: +0.5%

peterdutoit, to climate
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2024 is not just an election year. It is THE election year.

64 countries—representing a combined global population of about 49%—are holding national elections, the results of which will prove massively consequential as we head deeper into the

to keep fossil fuels in the ground!

peterdutoit,
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@immibis maybe this will help

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/

peterdutoit, to random
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May update:

SST's and Surface Temp anomalies are all trending down.

"Global temperature is likely to continue to rise a bit for at least a month, peak this summer, and then decline as the El Nino fades toward La Nina."

"Present extreme planetary energy imbalance will limit La Nina-driven temperature decline. Thus, El Nino/La Nina average global temperature likely is about 1.5°C, suggesting that, for all practical purposes, global temperature has already reached that milestone." — Hansen et al

Sea Surface Temperature anomaly as of May 23rd 2024
Surface air temperature anomaly as of May 23, 2024

peterdutoit,
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Hansen et al quotes:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/MayEmail.2024.05.16.pdf

peterdutoit, to climate
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“What can I do about the the ?” is an often asked question!

It begins with improving your Climate Literacy.

I would strongly recommend starting the journey by absorbing Chapter 5 of the IPCC WGIII report — at least the Executive Summary if your are time constrained. 😉

Then share what you learn!

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf

peterdutoit,
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Teaser 1:

peterdutoit,
@peterdutoit@mastodon.green avatar

Teaser 2:

Of course this still refers to limiting heating to 1.5°C which we now know to be impossible because there is now way we will be able to reduce emissions by 8.7% in 2024 and every year thereafter.

If we hit the brakes very hard in 2024 (ie 5.3% reduction) we have a shot at 2°C

peterdutoit,
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@elhult absolutely - no one gets a free ride here.

Every government
Every local municipality
Every city
Every town
Every business
Every community
Every family
Every individual

Has a role to play - no exception.

peterdutoit, to random
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MUST WATCH:

"The dream in the USA of 'electric SUVs for all' rests on the back of extraction from the mines of Congo and from the bodies of Congolese workers who are supposed to bear the brunt of that Dream. This is not a viable future."— @jasonhickel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reDNhbSy5mo

peterdutoit,
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Of course we must transition away from fossil fuels. But this cannot happen at the expense of fellow humans.

Perhaps it is time that we faced the fact that we are consuming WAY more energy than is required for a decent living standard as can be seen here:

(Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf)

peterdutoit,
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@Niall absolutely. Also everybody does not need an electric vehicle.

We can have less demand on everything needed to move humans around by becoming more energy efficient - by that I mean more active mobility and more clean public transport.

peterdutoit,
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@btschumy there are several things about US consumption eg home sizes etc. but the majority of this comes from transportation (both road and air)

https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-04/us-ghg-inventory-2024-main-text_04-18-2024.pdf

peterdutoit, (edited ) to random
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The children are not going to be ok.

Adults have failed at keeping heating to 1.5ºC and now have to prepare for a world between 2-2.7ºC

Here is what children of today will face.

How will we prepare them for this? As you can see heat stress towers above the other risks.

Report: https://resourcecentre.savethechildren.net/pdf/born-into-the-climate-crisis.pdf/

Paper: http://science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi7339

peterdutoit, to random
@peterdutoit@mastodon.green avatar

This all in the face of this reality:

“The lack of stringent emission reductions means that the required emission cuts from now to 2030 have increased significantly. To reach emission levels consistent with a below 2°C pathway in 2030, the cuts required/yr are now 5.3% from 2024, reaching 8.7%/yr on average for the 1.5°C pathway. To compare, the fall in total global GHG emissions from 2019 to 2020 due to the COVID pandemic was 4.7%”

From: @junglegeorge
https://mastodon.africa/@junglegeorge/112500342788331213

peterdutoit, to Mexico
@peterdutoit@mastodon.green avatar

faces unprecedented heat danger:

“It is unprecedented, because communities will experience temperatures that they have not faced. It is the task of the Institute to make it known to the citizens so that they can take appropriate measures.”—Jorge Zavala Hidalgo, Director, ICAyCC

“Most of [Mexico City’s] metropolitan area's 21 million residents — accustomed to more temperate weather — lack air conditioning.”

https://www.dgcs.unam.mx/boletin/bdboletin/2024_388.html

peterdutoit,
@peterdutoit@mastodon.green avatar

We are firmly on track for a 2°C world and as a result there are many places that will face the same dangers Mexico is facing - year after year.

On our current heating trajectory of 0.33°C/decade we will reach the 2° threshold in 16 years.

We need urgent adaptation for billions of people!

peterdutoit, to climate
@peterdutoit@mastodon.green avatar

I don’t think any of us really understand how quickly collapse can happen:

> About 85% of the country expected to see highs of at least 40°C
> Almost 40% of the country’s dams below 20%
> 40% are between 20 and 50%.
> Mexico City (Population 22.51 million) forced to reduce water supply as reservoirs that feed city dry up.
> Stores running out of mineral water.

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-heatwave-drought-protests-monkey-deaths-6310778f139ef786a8c70301fb340bd5

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