peterdutoit

peterdutoit, 5 days ago to climate

I don’t think any of us really understand how quickly collapse can happen:

> About 85% of the country expected to see highs of at least 40°C
> Almost 40% of the country’s dams below 20%
> 40% are between 20 and 50%.
> Mexico City (Population 22.51 million) forced to reduce water supply as reservoirs that feed city dry up.
> Stores running out of mineral water.

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-heatwave-drought-protests-monkey-deaths-6310778f139ef786a8c70301fb340bd5

#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #Mexico

peterdutoit, 17 days ago (edited 17 days ago) to brazil

"I don't say this lightly - but the floods in #PortoAlegre, #Brazil, are looking comparable to what Katrina did to New Orleans in 2005 -- massive evacuations, water & power outages, key infrastructure damaged, parts of city, possible long-term consequences."—Brian Winter

Background heating +1.3ºC

#ClimateCrisis

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peterdutoit, 1 year ago to random

What have we done.

“Every year about 134 million atomic bombs of heat is being trapped by the ocean. It has kept global temperatures down and kept the land livable but we have to realise that energy hasn’t gone.”

The ocean time bomb fuse has been lit.

#ClimateCrisis #OceanHeating

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/15/oceans-have-been-absorbing-the-worlds-extra-heat-but-theres-a-huge-payback

peterdutoit, 6 days ago (edited 6 days ago) to random

The children are not going to be ok.

Adults have failed at keeping heating to 1.5ºC and now have to prepare for a world between 2-2.7ºC

Here is what children of today will face.

How will we prepare them for this? As you can see heat stress towers above the other risks.

Report: https://resourcecentre.savethechildren.net/pdf/born-into-the-climate-crisis.pdf/

Paper: http://science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi7339

peterdutoit, 2 days ago to climate

2024 is not just an election year. It is THE election year.

64 countries—representing a combined global population of about 49%—are holding national elections, the results of which will prove massively consequential as we head deeper into the #ClimateCrisis

#Vote to keep fossil fuels in the ground!

peterdutoit, 24 days ago (edited 23 days ago) to climate

We are ready to move into Zone 1 on this map.

Between 1.7-2.3°C some places will be contending with 200+ days where the combined temperature and humidity conditions will pose a risk of mortality to many individuals.

Urgent conversations need to get underway of how to keep people safe.

Data: Pg. 16, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf

#ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 7 days ago to climate

As the Singapore Airlines incident is in the news cycle, a reminder from research published in June 2023:

“Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is hazardous to aircraft and is projected to intensify in response to future climate change.

“Severe-or-greater CAT increased the most, becoming 55% more frequent in 2020 than in 1979.”

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103814

#ClimateCrisis #SingaporeAirlines

peterdutoit, 11 months ago to random

Early Warnings

There has been a dramatic shift in the earths water system!

• Reference glaciers (for which we have long-term observations) experienced an average thickness change of −1.3 metres between October 2021 and October 2022. This loss is much larger than the average of the last decade. The cumulative thickness loss since 1970 amounts to almost 30m

#ClimateCrisis #Water

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peterdutoit, 29 days ago to india

Situation in #India:

"According to IMD, many parts of the east coast and the peninsular south will record heat index of 40-50 degrees C, with some places even going up to 60°C, as per heat index forecasts provided by IMD."

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/heatwave-grips-country-as-polls-enter-key-stage-101714329327537.html

#Heatwave #ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 15 hours ago to climate

Tomorrow South Africa’s 27 million registered voters head to the polls.

How we vote will determine the countries direction on climate.

#SAElection24 #ClimateCrisis #SouthAfrica

Results of the 2019 national election in South Africa
Final pre election poll showing ruling ANC government below its usual majority

peterdutoit, 11 months ago to random

Every day starts like this in #SouthAfrica — by checking the power outage schedule for the day.

You have to consider this when planning your day, even if you have an electricity self-generation system installed. Many places don’t. Traffic lights go down. In some malls shops close for these periods. There is a massive impact on water distribution systems, and on and on.

This situation is leading to a forced #degrowth and a resultant drop in emissions

peterdutoit, 1 year ago to random

Early Warnings

In this peer-reviewed paper scientists looked at 12 locations around the Mediterranean and Middle East to determine when these locations would cross the regular occurrences of 45° and then 50°C days given our current trajectory. They look at the situation at present, mid century (27 years away) and late century (77 years away)

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00377-4

They observe:

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#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #Mitigation #Adaptation

peterdutoit, 21 days ago (edited 21 days ago) to brazil

As we bear witness to the devastation in #Brazil:

“Reminder: global warming brings a lot more extreme rain. It’s basic physics, the data prove it, and climate scientists have warned you for 30 years about this.

“Peer-reviewed study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-021-00202-w

“It will get worse until we stop emitting.

“Your home [town or city] could be next.”— @rahmstorf

#ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 19 days ago to climate

These instrument readings serve as a stark reminder of our current trajectory.

They not only reflect our past and present actions but also foreshadow a future dictated by them - ie a world that has heats to between 2.1-3.5ºC

It is only when these figures begin to reverse that we can confidently say our efforts to change course are effective.

Pay attention to the instruments!

Graphic source: https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/112340885914056186

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 22 days ago to brazil

We absolutely cannot ignore what is happening in #Canoas #Brazil.

The stories and images are heartbreaking.

https://youtu.be/URmRPBo48ao

This is all taking place with background heating of +1.3ºC (latest 5-year average) above preindustrial.

Our cities, our infrastructure cannot cope at this level of heating.

What happens when we reach 1.5º or 2ºC?

#ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 5 days ago to climate

India's deal with the devil.

Heatwave drives Delhi’s power demand to historic 8000 MW peak https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/heatwave-drives-delhis-power-demand-to-historic-8000-mw-peak/110347501

Where does most of the electricity come from in an attempt to stay cool?

285 coal power plants.

Resulting CO2 emissions👇🏻

#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #India

peterdutoit, 3 days ago to random

MUST WATCH:

"The dream in the USA of 'electric SUVs for all' rests on the back of extraction from the mines of Congo and from the bodies of Congolese workers who are supposed to bear the brunt of that Dream. This is not a viable future."— @jasonhickel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reDNhbSy5mo

#CllimateCrisis #EnergyTransition

peterdutoit, 4 days ago to Mexico

#Mexico faces unprecedented heat danger:

“It is unprecedented, because communities will experience temperatures that they have not faced. It is the task of the Institute to make it known to the citizens so that they can take appropriate measures.”—Jorge Zavala Hidalgo, Director, ICAyCC

“Most of [Mexico City’s] metropolitan area's 21 million residents — accustomed to more temperate weather — lack air conditioning.”

#Heatwave #ClimateCrisis

https://www.dgcs.unam.mx/boletin/bdboletin/2024_388.html

peterdutoit, 3 days ago to climate

“What can I do about the the #ClimateCrisis?” is an often asked question!

It begins with improving your Climate Literacy.

I would strongly recommend starting the journey by absorbing Chapter 5 of the IPCC WGIII report — at least the Executive Summary if your are time constrained. 😉

Then share what you learn!

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf

#ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 27 days ago to random

Reminder: "natural" gas is not a "transition fuel" it is a fossil fuel.

"Natural" gas composition:

> Methane 97% (CH4)
> Ethane 0.919% (C2H6)
> Propane 0.363% (C3H8)
> Butane 0.162% (C4H10)
> Carbon dioxide 0.527% (CO2)
> Oxygen 0-0.08% (O2)
> Nitrogen 0.936% (N2)
> Other noble gases (e.g., He, Ne, Ar, Xe)

Lets call it what it is - methane gas - with a much greater global warming potential than CO2 in the short-term.

#ClimateLiteracy #Methane

peterdutoit, 1 day ago to climate

Basically anywhere south of San Antonio, Texas is facing extreme heat today, matching what is happening in Mexico

#ClimateCrisis #Texas #Heatwave

peterdutoit, 1 day ago to climate

Reminder: People who need to urgently begin adaptation conversations are those who:

1. Live in places that are already close to thermal limits
2. Live near seasonal rivers and ice
3. Live along coastlines.

These places are the frontlines of the expanding #ClimateCrisis

#ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 9 days ago to Mexico

#Mexico, #Guatemala, #Belize all experiencing extreme record breaking heatwaves accompanied by widespread wildfires and smoke danger. (Image 1 showing increased risk of heat-humidity stress days as we continue to heat)

Instrument readings:

+1.63ºC 12-month running mean above preindustrial (Berkeley Earth/ERA5 datasets)
+1.3ºC latest 5-year average above preindustrial

+1.5ºC imminent

#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #Wildfire #Smoke

FIRMS map showing fires burning in Central America May 19, 2024
Map showing smoke detection across Central America May 19, 2024

peterdutoit, 15 days ago to climate

Who are on the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis

• those living in places that are close to human and animal thermal limits
• those living near rivers and ice
• those living near coastlines.

As we continue to heat the risks are going to rise exponentially on the front lines, and it’s happening already at +1.3° of heating.

We can’t avoid 1.5° which is now imminent. Climate chaos awaits.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/persistent-brazil-floods-raise-specter-climate-migration-2024-05-13/

#Floods #Brazil #ClimateMigration

peterdutoit, 10 days ago (edited 10 days ago) to random

IRI Temperature Probability Forecast for June-July-August:

"Regarding temperature, 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙮 𝙚𝙣𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 for above-normal temperature are forecasted across most land areas throughout the forecast period." (Emphasis mine)

Where are you on the map?

Full forecast: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

What is a probability forecast? https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/08/probability-forecast/

#ClimateLiteracy