Both sides are trying to throw the election this year.
It’s unfortunate to think one of these sides will win because everyone was scared that one of these parties will win and voted for the other. The idea we have a two party system is essentially a self fulfilling prophecy that we fulfill at the society level (if that even makes sense).
I agree that Trump isn’t as popular as he used to be. He ran on the “it’s like we’re the minorities now” bandwagon and that isn’t a phrase I hear out here in urban or suburban Midwest anymore.
It doesn’t help that they took rights from their constituents. I think it surprised them how much backlash they got for the anti-choice stuff.
This election is iterally the last election but worse because both of these candidates have lost so much popularity.
There are weaknesses in both major party candidates but I really err to the side of Biden because 51% of America has voted for him in the past. That is just always going to be an easier sell. Trump has never even hit 47% and he had two attempts.
And that is entirely consistent with current polls that show Trump “up” but not above 47%.
But of course it’s also not inconsistent with winning and you’d always rather be ahead than behind. Just an important bit of info that gnaws at me when I’m trying to estimate where I think the race is.
Trump’s performance in the primaries shows that he’s a weak candidate. The kind of Hailey voter that Trump needs in November are not voting for her, they’re voting against him.
When he won SC, Trump bragged that he got “twice” the votes that he was supposed to get. But that’s a lie. Hailey got something like 15-20 points higher than the polls predicted. (538 said he was 27 points up, but he ended up winning by 11). If this trend holds for super Tuesday, there is good reason to be optimistic about November.
I remember a ton of people saying the exact same thing during the 2016 primary. When he wins the primary they’ll all fall in line. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they prove me wrong, but I’m not holding my breath.
It’s easier to get people to vote against “the other guy” when “the other guy” is in office.
That works against Biden this time. Especially since his own party is saying he didn’t do enough, and Trump’s voters were happy with trump in 2020
Pretty much the only vocal Biden supporters, are supporters of Israel’s genocide. Because they know Biden is a self confessed Zionist. Like, he actually says it publicly and proudly.
Yeah I don’t meet many Biden supporters, literally all he had was that he was a change from Trump. Especially since he seems to manage to upset everyone, another perfect example is immigration. Older voters are accusing him of allowing a “Venezuelan Mariel boatlift” (The emptying of Castro’s jails) to occur at the southern border. Voters my age are wondering why DACA is still temporary and backlogs for legal pathways are crazier than ever (May have been Covid but many areas went from less than 24 month processing times(ludicrous enough) to years in some cases a decade for processing since Biden took over). Younger Voters are asking why if keeping kids in converted offices under Trump was wrong why did Biden have people living under bridges at the border then start busing them across the country to be homeless. And now even the establishment backing him is like well he went too far in negotiating, but only because he had to while still having nothing to show but loss of good will. Yeah this is the guy to get people excited about. And whats his biggest competition? Oh the guy who actually managed to close the border, and whose attempts at cementing DACA required the same concession Biden so willingly offers now. Like please run anybody else, you can’t polish Biden into a jewel.
The margins in some swing states, in 2016 and 2020, were less than 1%. If even 5% of republican voters have since become never trumpers that could have a big impact.
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