I don't know why it took me this long to articulate this thought, but Tesla's charging model is ultimately a trap for themselves:
They rely on other folks to provide services near their charging sites. That's clever, BUT it means they do not make any money from those services.
And that's precisely what keeps gas stations in business. They compete with one another to such an extent that the fuel is sold barely above cost, and the store/car wash/cafe is where they /actually/ make money.
As soon as a big player like Pilot, Loves, whatever rolls out charging en masse they're gonna be able to do the same with electricity.
Tesla, unless they want to learn the ins-and-outs of running convenience stores, won't be able to do that, so the cost of their charging will stay high. They aren't set up to subsidize it with other things.
@TechConnectify I'm sure you're aware of the GM/EVgo & Pilot/Flying J project that happens to basically be what you're talking about (although I haven't seen anything of that at the Loves/Flying J here in Cheyenne yet) and there isn't really much public news about where the rollout is at. (There's some internal stock stuff like EVgo saying they've dropped off all of the parts to Pilot)
@TechConnectify although for another sense of scale of how long things are taking, we've had a "nearly ready to open" ElectrifyAmerica station at our target for over a year, and they actually took it completely apart to redo it, and cut a new trench for a line or something since then. I'm completely baffled as to why.
And to further agree with your point, the Tesla charger at the mall has been there for years and I'm not sure if it's ever had a problem (other than dickwads parking big trucks)
@TechConnectify The Flying J (owned by Pilot) has just built a 3- or 4-bay charging depot for electric vehicles, so they're already being rolled out. I can't say for certain if it's en masse, but Tesla already has competition in the area.
@TechConnectify Probably right, but I wonder if fast-charging most EVs is actually too cheap for this to matter — at least for people on long trips who usually charge at home.
For those customers, the experience of the charger and its location — how nice/convenient it is to spend 30 minutes there — is probably more important than whether the electricity costs $15 or $12.
Of course, the bigger the battery, or the more you use DC fast-charging, the more a price difference starts to matter.
@marcoarment@TechConnectify If charging costs are subsidized enough at the station vs. at home, people will absolutely visit the station even if they could charge at home.
@marcoarment My gut says once signs that actually advertise charging cost are normalized (which, perhaps won't happen but time will tell) people will still view it more of a commodity than anything else and will look for the cheapest charge.
But, I agree with you that niceties of the site will be a large factor. And personally, I don't think Tesla has a winning formula there (though others disagree with me).
@TechConnectify@marcoarment this would make for a great video topic: pricing fuel by energy. The average ICE consumer has no concept of the available energy in a gallon of Gasoline: (92, 90, 88, 87, E85, E15, etc.), Diesel (No. 1, No. 2, B10, etc.), or Summer/Winter blends of each. Just like many EV consumers are unaware of the differences and impacts of the kWh vs charge time pricing models.
@graemek@marcoarment I personally really do not want us using the car's infotainment screen like that. Not just because it's my personal preference not to, but because there are loads of... steering opportunities there that give me the heebie jeebies.
We don't actually need to reinvent the wheel, here.
@graemek Also, as was said elsewhere in this thread, is it really a great idea to hide away EV chargers?
Imagine how much more confident the average person would be in the adoption of electric vehicles if they could actually see where they can be charged.
I didn't notice the EVgo station that popped up near me. Despite driving by it all the time, I saw no sign of it being installed or anything. It was just... suddenly there in the Plugshare app.
@TechConnectify@marcoarment We don’t need to, no, but I’m not sure that battle isn’t already lost. I’m not sure about Google Maps, but Apple Maps already communicates with my car and automatically adds waypoints for chargers for me on navigation. Convenience wins over all for most consumers.
That feature was a surprise to me, for sure. I’ve DC charged my car exactly one time in the year I’ve owned it. I had no idea it could do that already.
@graemek Fair, but I'll reiterate my broadest point:
I don't see the band-aids of today as the way we should move forward.
Maybe you can make the case that built-in route-planning will minimize the number of charging locations we'll need out there. But honestly, I don't agree with that.
Right now, charging isn't ubiquitous so it needs special considerations. Just as gas-powered cars did at the turn of the century. I'll be very surprised (and disappointed) if this is still the case in 10 years
@TechConnectify@graemek I fully expect car companies to leave the market fairly rapidly once they realize they’re really in the business of selling chips and cleaning bathrooms.
@TechConnectify@marcoarment I don't think existing gas stations really have a winning formula either; they're ill suited to have people waiting around extended periods of time.
Seems like this is better suited for a fast food chain or possibly a grocery chain. Though in my neighborhood the biggest charging station is in a Target parking lot, complete with an in-store coffebux.
Thinking about it, I'm a little surprised this isn't something Walmart has gone after.
@TechConnectify Oh I was thinking community, since there was discussion of price advertising. I don't think most consumers gassing up at truck stops are price sensitive the way neighborhood folks are, since they're choosing convenience over taking an exit and hunting.
@TechConnectify I always assumed that was to appeal to truckers who are more price conscious, given their volume of usage. But as Click and Clack used to say, I come to that position unencumbered by knowlege or facts.
@TechConnectify I've gone to a lot of NY-region Superchargers over the years, and some EA chargers recently. Tesla has a significant leg up around here, but they still vary a lot.
What I always want is a travel plaza with multiple options on how I spend my time and what/whether I eat, and a bathroom I can use without feeling obligated to stay or spend money.
What we often get is a mall/Target/Walmart parking lot, or a sit-down restaurant's parking lot with nothing else in walking distance.
@TechConnectify Obviously, I don't represent everyone, but I'd MUCH rather stop at a nice travel plaza on the side of the highway than drive 3 miles out of the way to a Wal-Mart, even if the charge at the travel plaza costs an extra $5 or whatever.
I've found that most of the conversations regarding this have misaligned frameworks - I'm thinking of the way I suspect things will be 10 years down the road.
Tesla's situation is the best EV solution /right now/ but I think this reality makes a lot of people think "well, just copy what they're doing" without looking more broadly at what other industries are doing. Some of that, I think, is outright aversion to engaging with ideas born in the past.
@TechConnectify@marcoarment in terms of public charger density, e.g. the Netherlands or Norway is probably a decade+ ahead of the US. So you could just come visit and spend a few days driving around to see how it worked out here 😉
@marcoarment Somewhat tangentially related, I had a convo at Open Sauce with two Tesla employees.
Neither one knew about the charging speeds Hyundai/Kia E-GMP has attained, and it was also humorous when I brought up the touchscreen control for the glovebox.
"It reduces BOM!" I was told excitedly, and when I said
"but you still need an actuator. Why not just use a manual latch?" the response was a completely surprised
"oh"
It, uh, very strongly reinforced some of my opinions, gotta tell ya.
@thomasfuchs If I remember correctly, the 1st gen Audi Q7 also had a button on the dash that opened the glove, rather than a traditional latch. So unneedlessly complicated and one more piece prone to fail.
@TechConnectify@marcoarment for me, the advantage of the touchscreen controlled glovebox is the ability to use a passcode before opening it. We use it as some kind of safe (not a real secure safe obviously) where we store our ID when on the road.
@TechConnectify@marcoarment I'm surprised how little investment gas station companies have made in public EV charging. Assuming that EVs become the predominant vehicle type within a few decades, the days of selling gas are numbered.
Technically they could wait until absolutely necessary, but it seems like a terrible business idea to let other companies gain such a head start.
I'm not necessarily in favor or against this happening, just surprised that it isn't.
@marcoarment@TechConnectify have you seen (for instance) the implementation at WaWa stations? I really like that! Not too far out - and bathrooms & good food available. Safe-feeling as well - for the most part.
I don't know whether Tesla charges people differently when their charging stations are partnered with different businesses (say, WaWa vs Wal-Mart) but I wonder if that would make a difference to people. It wouldn't to me.
@jann@marcoarment@TechConnectify yeah, I’m stopped at those several tiimes; now they are building one near my house in a suburban area - they’re branching out from their old major highways strategy.
@marcoarment@TechConnectify I’ve noticed some of the not so good ones are being, effectively, upgraded. For instance there is a new one at a travel plaza on I-30 in Hope, Arkansas just 30 miles east of an old one in Texarkana at an Olive Garden.
@TechConnectify@marcoarment signs advertising price has recently been mandated in Europe, where I guess also there's a higher percentage of people without access to home parking. And having streets in the city with chargers built next to parking makes the experience different too.
@TechConnectify Exactly. I don't think the long term outlook for Tesla is great given how they're run. High end EVs in the same $ bracket are really good now.
@TechConnectify And in the case of charging, even with performance improvements, it takes time. Convenience store model works even better for electric charging, since nobody's going to be pulling up and leaving in two minutes.
@TechConnectify Plus, the stations that have already partnered with fast food chains are looking like a prime place for chargers. Spend your 30 mins charging with a Subway sub!
@TechConnectify can you imagine how fucking terrible a Tesla convenience store would be? You could probably only order from a screen, the selection would be weird, and everything will be slightly damaged
Most charging should be done where you park overnight. I am not sure of the economics but i think a lot of people are charging "in the wild" where it is free or discounted if home charging isn't available.
I think the Gas station Charging is going to be a white elephant, while it will take off at Grocery stores, malls or event parking to attract customers.
In the Midwest Gas Stations are in business as Grocery stores for rural areas
@thesteelrat Oh, to be clear, I think this only needs to (or should, anyway) be a thing along major highways. I /hope/ we are installing cheap Level 2 AC charging infrastructure all over the place because yes, charging at home or work is so, so much better.
But for long-distance charging, I'll bet it looks just like today's truck stops and travel centers.
Having a network of level 3 chargers along the interstate would ease a lot of EV range anxiety. Also if lowes/pilot/RoadRanger put in charging stations they would be ready for when Semi-trucks convert to EV
@thesteelrat@TechConnectify we're already seeing charging stations deployed at grocery stores; I'd expect to see it deployed in rest stops and to see more rest stops become like the Oases in Canada, where you have fuel, coffee/donuts (Tim Hortons), and usually some other food options. Take a bit and have a coffee while you charge.
@ben_zen@thesteelrat Grocery stores are on of the few places I think medium-speed (~50 kW) charging makes sense. You might be able to take care of your needs that way if you can't charge at home.
Still, though, charging at home is infinitely better. IMHO, we should be fixing that problem rather than forcing folks into spending more than they need to propping up another company.
@TechConnectify@thesteelrat absolutely agreed. I wasn't thinking of this as an "instead", but I can see where it'd be taken as such.
My apartment complex has some chargers in the garage, but it's still limited spaces that require people to re-park regularly; hopefully that changes with time.
@ben_zen@thesteelrat I'm hoping people start seeing the wisdom of power-sharing. You can easily put 10 chargers in 10 spots with only ~10 kW behind them because, on average, only a few will be charging at once.
It's much more important to make charging more accessible than it is to make it fast, especially when it alleviates the need to shuffle cars around.
@TechConnectify@ben_zen@thesteelrat it'd be cool if 10 spots had 10 chargers, and the chargers prioritized the car with the least charge until they were all close to full and all charging evenly amd slowly.
@TechConnectify Won't it ultimately be people like Walmart that provide most of the charging? They don't make money from the parking at their stores, it is there to provide a way for customers to get to them. The expectation will be in future that every parking space will have a charger, otherwise that space would only be useful for obsolete dinosour juice cars.
@TechConnectify Germany has some big EnBW superchargers where they placed vending machines and toilets.
Their largest one has 52 chargers with up to 300kW.
@TechConnectify They (Pilot/whoever) will need to adjust their strategy somewhat too.
5 minutes to gas up means you have time to grab a bag of chips and a drink.
15+ minutes means you might want to sit inside, get fresh food, use Wi-Fi, etc. also you need 3x the charging spots compared to gas stations.
Your general sentiment is right. In 10 years nobody should expect Tesla to be running any charging stations. Even if their car business is still around.
@TechConnectify I'm sure they can put motor-cleaning additives into the electricity at their stations to justify the premium, just like some gas stations claim in their marketing.
Or maybe they can offer higher octane electricity?
(For now, it seems like they can compete entirely on "Our chargers work!")
@TechConnectify I saw a larger than normal Gas Station the other day with Solar panels up on the awning as well.
I suppose if the Truck Stops can mitigate the risk of installing similar, they have a bunch of square footage ready to go solar.
@TechConnectify I've already stopped at a Loves, with Electrify America charging, and it was a pretty good experience. Plugged in, went inside, ate a burger, came back to enough charge to get to my next stop.
@TechConnectify I'd love to see chargers run alongside or in direct replacement to gas pumps over time. The question is, how do we encourage these companies to do it?
@TechConnectify you’re preaching the gospel! And as a part time RVer, I welcome any of the aforementioned to do it big time so we can finally have EV coaches at some point.
@TechConnectify I see the future of highway charging to be a site with multiple fast food restaurants and one convenience store. The bathroom facilities and a small sit-down eating area will be shared (reduces costs). Half of the parking spots will have chargers. All parking will have overhead solar panels for the shade. Customers will park, go to buy food, and optionally buy a prepaid amount of electricity for their EV. Plus discount to eat in car (less customers lingering after charging).
@TechConnectify Let's apply Doctorow Enshittification(tm) to Tesla charging:
Stage 1) free charging co-located at existing convenience locations
Stage 2) paid charging co-located at convenience stores, but profits split between Tesla and the storefront
Stage 3) paid charging at Tesla-branded franchised storefronts
Seems to me that the widespread industry adoption of Tesla-style charging cables will stop enshittification between stages 2 and 3 by preventing Tesla from entering the existing convenience stores / truck stop chains.
@TechConnectify Do you have motorway service stations in the US? Like dedicated services that are only accessible by coming of the main road. Those prices are always sky high for fuel and fast charging (though we have a real problem with most fast chargers at those places either being lots of unused Tesla ones, or two unnamed brand ones with several cars waiting). They always have sky high prices that make you wish you'd gone elsewhere
@TechConnectify The thing is, gas stations need attendants to hit the switch in case of an accident. Those folks might as well do other things as well while on-site. Charging stations don't need that kind of babysitting. So a zero employee model will likely work just fine.
@TechConnectify Hum, I'm happy to avoid the gas station. Back when I did go I used to wish someone would just drop by my place at night to top off the tank. The gas station experience is pretty overrated I think.
@ccdudley85 And by normal, I mean staffed, well-lit, with bathrooms, food, and windshield squeegees.
We really didn't have to reinvent the wheel. Tesla did because it's easier for them in a lot of ways - but I don't view today's band-aids as good. Far from it.
I am eagerly looking forward to the days recharging at facilities like truck stops is normal.
@TechConnectify With quicker and quicker quickcharging and more efficient cars that will be a shrinking market. People in a Taycan will spend ~21 minutes on a quickcharger, compared to the 38 minutes a Tesla S will take for the same charge.
However, I have been driving EV's for five years and I once used a quickcharger. All the other times slow charging (AC, 11-22kW) was enough to get me going.
@TechConnectify Tesla will likely continue to vertically integrate charging infra tech into their supply chain to run stations with lower margins than competitors will.
@jazaval Sure, but in theory (and actually in-practice in many gas stations) you could run recharging at /negative/ margin if your other business makes sufficient money.
@TechConnectify are companies like Love’s really going to manage the upfront cost of DC charging infrastructure? I guess I have no idea what the relative cost of a new diesel station is though.
@jazaval Given that most gas stations have a big cost Tesla doesn't - land acquisition - I suspect handling the cost of chargers isn't actually that problematic for them.
And (amazingly) new gas stations are still getting built. I, too, am unsure of the startup costs there but selling liquid fuel still involves a heckuva lot of specialty equipment which I'm sure ain't cheap.
@jazaval Put more plainly, most gas stations exist as a ploy to get people into the convenience store to by some food, lotto, booze, whatever - where the real money is made.
Tesla cannot do this. They can, at best, offer charging purely at cost. Their best hope is that their vertical integration reduces the cost of each charger to the point they can hang on, but the moment there's a competitor that undercuts them sufficiently because they can /also/ sell them whatever else... it's bad for Tesla
@TechConnectify Superchargers also exist as a ploy - to get people to buy more Teslas.
I do agree that attendants and general conveniences like wiper fluid are critical for mass adoption of DCFC, though. I just don’t think it’s harder to launch Tesla convience stores than it is to establish a consistent DCFC infra supply chain.
@TechConnectify here in Europe there is one company who just started to offer a subscription, you pay monthly and get cheaper electricity... I don't think that's the way to go either.
@TechConnectify my feeling w/o evidence is that the convenience store group will have a bit of learning to do here, as charge times aren't the same as gas-up times... And no one wants to walk around a 7-11 for 20 minutes.
But the truck stops of the world are mostly there already. Truck stops already have to deal with long-stops.
@TechConnectify Onve charging becomes that ubiquitous does Tesla even need to be in the charger game anymore? It was a solution to the check and egg problem.
As you pointed out it’s not a profitable business. So what advantage is there to maintaining it then? Maybe sell it off?
@TechConnectify I’m surprised Tesla doesn’t have some sort of in-car integration with local services. Instead of having to wait in line at a McDrive, show an icon for a MCDonalds web app that knows your location when you’re getting close, and let the customer do everything, payment included, on the car screen.
@TechConnectify the types of amenities/distractions at gas stations are loosely coupled in how long they take to complete with how long it takes a pump to fill a car.
Electric cars, with their 6x as long charging stops, will be better suited with other types of attractions surrounding the chargers.
Obviously car washes don't factor into this calculus, but things like a convenience store - no one spends half an hour in a convenience store.
Maybe a sit down restaurant? Or a theater that only shows single episodes of TV shows? Idk, I'm just spitballing bad ideas here.
@TechConnectify ah, so looking out 5-10 years into a future build out. Yes, you're correct, should be building with faster charging in mind.
But I can already picture a decades old EV rocking up to a charger and sitting for 45 minutes while societal conventions already expect cars to be in and out in 5-10 minutes. Haha!
@TechConnectify cars live a surprisingly long time. Just this summer I upgraded from my 2000 civic to a 2010 Prius. The civic still runs, maybe not great anymore, but with a little elbow grease it's still a very easy car to keep running.
@TechConnectify Another part of why gas stations also run convenience stores is that they're typically not allowed to sell their gas at much of a markup. The gas station barely makes any margins on the sale of fuel, and so most of their revenue comes from the convenience store, car wash, or repair shop, depending on what services they offer.
In much the same way that movie theatres barely make any margins on the sale of movie tickets, because the prices are fixed by the film distributors.
@TechConnectify To some degree, this reminds me of Apple & services. Because services are/were supporting hardware sales, they don't/didn’t need to compete on the same metrics as competitors. Of course, as Apple increasingly sees services as a legit revenue source you see them engaging in the same anti-user behaviors to juice profits. And I guess that is the future of Tesla superchargers, too. To the degree that they need ever increasing revenues, they will have to compete on amenities.
@TechConnectify Many year ago I work at a gas station.
Typical sale of $20 gas, news paper, packet of cigarettes, bottle of coke.
More profit on the bottle of coke than off all the other items combined.
@TechConnectify Ironically, the thing that will enable that to happen in the US is the NACS standard. Things are going to be very different in 10 years.
@TechConnectify Above cost enough that the oil companies make hundreds of billions – At least in the UK, forecourts are often run by the oil companies. But your point stands, Tesla doesn’t generate any of the energy it sells.
@TechConnectify@mdonkin No, most of them are owned by either owned by EG Group, who own Asda, a supermarket chain formerly owned by Walmart, or MFG, who own Morrisons, another supermarket chain.
EG Group is also the 4th largest owner of convenience stores in the USA, mostly gas station stores.
@TechConnectify do you know anything of the partnerships with Wawa and Royal Farms? Seen them push out Tesla chargers at their locations. This is literally on their property, not just nearby.
@TechConnectify I just saw (inside a 7-11/Speedway gas station yesterday) a "Buy 2 items from our cooler and get 10 cents/gal off at our pumps!
It's this kind of thing they could use to reduce charging costs as well. Sell over-priced drinks to boost people's interest in charging at that location.
(PS: I'm a retiree & #rideshare driver here in Walt Disney World, btw. I just watched your "Some Thoughts about Disney Parks" so I thought I'd mention it...)
Add comment