@markmetz@sfba.social
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markmetz

@markmetz@sfba.social

Tooting my horn here in the Fedi since 2022!

Hot Take Maker - Breaking News Breaker
Occasional Jumper of Sharks

In favor of saving the world and stopping the bullshit. Known to punch nazis.

Chochenyo turf walker. Flâneur de Sarthe

Please join me when I play records and stream live audio on Mixlr.

My book "Vinyl Vitality"
coming soon here:
https://mark-metz.com/music

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markmetz, to random
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4/

Threatening Russia’s control of Crimea—and inflicting grave damage to its economy and society—will, of course, be difficult. But it is a more realistic strategy than the proposed alternative: a negotiated settlement while Putin is in office.

Putin has never agreed to respect Ukrainian sovereignty—and never will. If anything, Russia’s rhetoric about the war has become more annihilationist, invoking the Russian Orthodox Church and suggesting that the conflict is something like a holy war, with existential consequences.

Any negotiation in the current circumstances would at best leave Ukraine crippled, partitioned, and at the mercy of a second Russian invasion. At worst, it would eliminate the country altogether.

No sustainable, long-term peace can emerge from negotiations with an aggressor that has genocidal intent.

Ukraine and the West must either win or face devastating consequences.
(EXACTLY!)

markmetz,
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5/

As Americans and Europeans ponder whether to help Kyiv avoid this horrible fate, U.S. officials should remember that if the West falters, it will invite further Russian invasions.

Senior military leaders and intelligence officials in European countries are sounding the alarm on this prospect. Russia is already menacing its other neighbors, including NATO states, and it may make a move if it can subjugate Ukraine first.

A Russian victory would also fuel China’s territorial ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, as it would reveal the limits of the West’s commitment to safeguarding its partners’ sovereignty. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not taking place in a vacuum. An adverse outcome would be felt around the globe.

markmetz,
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6/

ENDGAME FIRST

The fact that Ukraine and its partners lack a strategy for victory, three years into the war, is a serious problem.

Without an end in mind, leaders in Kyiv, Washington, and Brussels are making key decisions on an incremental and ultimately incoherent basis. Ukraine may achieve local successes, but not a comprehensive defeat of the enemy; for their part, Kyiv’s Western partners tend to think only about the next tranche of supplies.

And without a strategic picture, it will be difficult to sustain morale and the will to fight in Ukraine and beyond.



markmetz,
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7/

Coming up with a theory of victory will be much harder today than it would have been in 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

Since then, Russia has militarized its economy, prepared for a long war, managed to recruit hordes of soldiers, and produced large stockpiles of equipment.

But despite these successes, Moscow’s land-war doctrine is still unsophisticated. It centers on using small infantry groups with the support of a few armored vehicles to attack various spots on a frontline that stretches for over 1,000 miles.

These tactics have allowed Moscow to make limited territorial gains—but only after losing enormous amounts of troops and weapons.

Russia’s losses, including as many as a thousand or more casualties a day, roughly match its intake of new troops, which are of a much lower quality than those of 2022.

markmetz,
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8/

Despite its massive investments, Moscow’s capabilities are not infinite.

Each month, for instance, Russia is losing as many vehicles as its manufacturers produce, and it is burning through its stockpiles of older armored vehicles at an unsustainable rate.

And, importantly, Russia is facing both a labor shortage and resources shortage, the latter partially thanks to a combination of Western sanctions, export control measures, and a Ukrainian bombardment campaign that is limiting Russia’s capacity to refine and then sell oil.

markmetz,
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9/

Moscow is no invincible juggernaut. Russia’s small gains were made possible only by its overwhelming advantage in firepower—which occurred only as a result of the disruption of Western aid.

The country’s artillery systems are based on old models and lack precision and long-range capabilities, and its multiple-launch rocket systems, tanks, and aviation equipment are no match for Western models.

If Ukraine can increase precision strikes by long-range artillery, it can turn the war’s arithmetic against Russia and impose an unacceptable rate of attrition on Moscow.

Eventually, Russia will be unable to replace its manpower and materiel fast enough.

The country’s economy simply will not be able to sustain this war in the face of constant losses.

markmetz,
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10/

If Ukraine has enough supplies, it will be able to keep Russian artillery at bay. Enhanced air defenses, including F-16 fighter jets equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles, would reduce Russian attacks on critical infrastructure inside Ukraine as well as on units stationed near the front.

With Russia’s forces increasingly paralyzed, Ukraine would soon be able to use its Western long-range systems—such as its Army Tactical Missile Systems (better known as ATACMS)—to take down Russian command-and-control centers and air-defense assets.

markmetz,
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11/

Kyiv must also use drones in much larger numbers to fulfill all these tasks. Ukraine has already demonstrated that it can wield unmanned vehicles with devastating effects; it is thanks to drone attacks, for instance, that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been disabled.

Drones have also helped prevent large-scale Russian maneuvers on the ground. And they are making it possible for Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, hitting Russian oil facilities, military bases, and weapons factories.

To counter that threat, Moscow may need to station most of its air defense systems at home. Russia is simply too large for its defenses to simultaneously shield the homeland and the battlefront.

It will become even more vulnerable if the United States allows Ukraine to strike legitimate targets within Russia using U.S.-donated weapons.

markmetz, to random
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bUt rUzzia feElz THREATENED! tHey hAz nO cHoiCe!

markmetz, to random
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"...the weakest candidate can be strong if the systems and structures around him whitewash his liabilities and support him.

Fact is, Trump has that support – from the press corps, the rightwing media apparatus, the US Supreme Court, the Republican Party, the Electoral College and the billionaire class, in addition to the country’s general orientation toward white people’s preferences.

On consideration, Trump is the affirmative-action candidate, to borrow from the right’s dishonest and mean interpretation of that policy. He’s bad at politics. He’ll never not be bad. But he can be bad and still be viable, as long as the systems and structures around him support him.

https://www.editorialboard.com/why-the-dow-closing-over-40000-was-a-one-day-story/

markmetz, to random
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It’s obvious they are fascists, but I did nazi that coming!

Election 2024: Trump campaign video includes references to a 'unified Reich' | AP News

https://apnews.com/article/trump-election-2024-rhetoric-germany-antisemitism-31002afb91b642c0314223d19e51f427

markmetz, to random
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a “microcosm of what authoritarians do on a larger scale.”

“AFTER the Republican Chair and GOP members broke official House protocol to allow MTG’s horrific opening silo of rhetoric, they THEN made another change to dispense with the legislative process,” Ocasio-Cortez said on X (formerly Twitter). “THAT part is not getting enough attention.”

In a move she described as “highly unusual and still unclear to me how legitimate it was,” the GOP-led committee vacated both the typical amendment process and legislative debate that follows, moving directly to vote on their own text without allowing for amendments or objections to be heard.

“That’s why this stuff isn’t just all-sides chaos, or mere distraction, or a pox on everyone’s house,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote. “They WANT you to think this was some random devolution of conduct instead of a structured GOP outcome. We must understand who and what actions created the situation. It matters.”

https://newrepublic.com/post/181718/aoc-darker-intentions-mtg-hearing-chaos

markmetz,
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I’ve been a wee bit critical of AOC in the past, but she’s nailing it here and shining a light on some inside baseball MAGA fuckery. Looking like she both wants to be in the right side of history and also is learning how the sausage is made in DC.

markmetz, to Ukraine
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Just a few examples.





markmetz, to Ukraine
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So. Fico is a vatnik. Got it.

Slovakia at pivotal moment after Robert Fico shooting.





https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c89z7ll532xo

markmetz,
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@xs4me2
Was? Not sure how he’s doing

markmetz, to random
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Ah, nostalgia….

markmetz, to Ukraine
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Let them bonk!

Ukraine presses Biden to lift ban on using US weapons to strike Russia - POLITICO





https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970

markmetz, to random
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🤨

markmetz, to random
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RE: NYT Polling BS.

“Even with all that math and science, the entire notion that Trump is gaining ground among 1.2 million young Black voters is essentially based on phone conversations with six Black people.

“Six.”

https://www.editorialboard.com/trumps-strength-is-illusory/

markmetz, to random
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Sigh..

markmetz, to Ukraine
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"Make no mistake. No matter how this ends in Ukraine, Russia will not stop with Ukraine unless they're stopped in Ukraine."

General Says West's Defense Industrial Base Will Outpace Russia's > U.S. Department of Defense > Defense Department News





https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3772621/general-says-wests-defense-industrial-base-will-outpace-russias/

markmetz, to random
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Current 🍊💩campaign strategy.

markmetz, to random
@markmetz@sfba.social avatar

What could go wrong?

Chinese Police Officers Will Soon Be on Patrol in Hungary

https://hungarytoday.hu/chinese-police-officers-soon-on-patrol-in-hungary/

markmetz, to random
@markmetz@sfba.social avatar

🤬

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