mettaben,

I should add that Republicans/conservatives play right into this when they conflate Democrats with leftists, falsely implying that leftist (that are actually Democrat/corporatist) policies are to blame. Democrats and Republicans are really on the same team when it comes to waging information warfare against genuine social and economic justice. This is a key reason why a strong Green Party alternative is crucial.

"The democrat party is the graveyard of political movements"

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben the US political system has no place for 3rd parties, so any 3rd party can in the best case kill one of the two or more likely make the worse of 2 win elections.

The way to pull the political system towards a goal is to primary out the bad politicians from within a party. E.g AOC

mettaben,

@EyalL personally I support a two pronged approach. People who try to reform the dem party from the inside are very important, yes. But I also think the dem party needs pressure to reform from the outside. It's interesting that you mention AOC because she is a good example of somebody who originally seemed like someone who would try to reform the dem party from within. But it looks like the dem party has actually reformed her.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/07/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-is-just-a-regular-old-democrat-now.html

And it's not just AOC but all of the squad, and even Bernie Sanders himself have been reformed so much by the dem party that they are barely recognizable now for who they once were or what they once stood for. The dem party is a meat grinder. Progressive politicians go in. Neoliberal fascist sausage comes out.

The dem party will NEVER let a truly progressive candidate win. The party leadership open admits they put their finger on the scale. The DNC does not conduct free and fair primary elections but rather acts as a campaign arm for the candidate who will serve the interests of the rich most faithfully. The primary elections, if they happen at all, are simply designed to ordain the already chosen candidate.

https://observer.com/2017/08/court-admits-dnc-and-debbie-wasserman-schulz-rigged-primaries-against-sanders/

So, I will continue to support the best dem candidates in the primary. In this election, I like Marianne Williamson the best. But I have no illusions that she has any ghost of a prayer of winning or that supporting her will move the political needle even a single millimeter forward.

Cornel West on the other hand. He will indeed make the dems sweat and squirm the way no insider can. Cornel West means the dem party can no longer ignore its left flank and move farther and farther to the right. To the point where dems and GOP are now essentially exactly the same party on most economic issues, but only differ on a few key red meat issues like abortion and guns.

A vote for Biden or Trump is a wasted vote. Everyone knows one of them or the other will win. A vote for Biden is a vote for status quo. Endless war quagmire in Ukraine. Cluster bombs. Rich getting richer. Climate catastrophe continuing unabated.

I'm not really sure what the democrats stand for any more. Not the little guy, that's for sure. They are openly the party of the elite now. They make fun of red states for being less educated, less wealthy, and collecting more welfare than blue states.

Is this dem party a party worth supporting? For me, it's clear. Hell no. On every issue, Green Party is better. Cornel West is a scholar and activist. He is inspiring. He's not just another politician pretending to care about social and economic justice issues in order to get votes. His lifetime of activism proves he lives and breathes it.

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben tldr, but the part about Biden and Trump being equivalent is extremely naive, at best

If Trump is elected, any semblance of democracy ends. Full on fascism begins.

The nymag article is paywalled but AOC has been great, and if the Dem party could all become similar it'd do great

mettaben,

@EyalL seems a little hyperbolic, doesn't? Obviously Trump and Biden are different in some ways and equivalent in other ways. But let me ask you this: would Trump have sent cluster bombs to Ukraine? I don't particularly like either politician, but it seems like Biden takes us closer to the razors edge of nuclear war and thus the end of society as we know it. How would you recommend someone who opposes cluster bombs on moral principles and thinks they are a war crime vote?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-denounces-bidens-decision-send-ukraine-cluster-munitions-rcna93704

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben cluster bombs are totally the right thing to send to Ukraine

Give them everything they need to stop the Russian genocide

And no, there's no hyperbole there

Trump and the GOP have gone full fascist. Violent coup, attempt to attack and threaten poll workers, refusing to certify elections, controlling women's bodies, banning books, closing libraries, the list is endless

Trump vs Biden is fascism vs (imperfect) democracy

mettaben,

@EyalL serious question: do you think prolonging the war in Ukraine serves US interests by weakening Russia? Similar to how the Cold War precipitated the fall of the Soviet Union?

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben giving weapons to Ukraine shortens the war

The USA ought to give much more so they can give Russia the final knockout faster

mettaben,

@EyalL I honestly don't understand this perspective. The part of Ukraine that's occupied by Russia is surrounded by Russia on 3 sides. This is directly Russia's sphere of influence. What makes you so sure Russia is so weak when the frontlines have barely moved, even with cluster munitions now being deployed.

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben nobody believed they'd repel the invasion. Nobody believed their previous counterattacks could be so successful

Now they're fighting a difficult battle but they can definitely succeed. They've crushed Russian military capability, which is now a fraction of what it was.

They're still making progress, and if you dived a little deeper, you'd know that's to be expected: the Russian fortifications are difficult to break.

Once broken, progress can speed up significantly

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben whether or not they will succeed very much depends on whether enough weaponry is provided to them.

The cluster munitions have already been put to good use, destroying whole Russian units and constraining Russian formations further.

mettaben,

@EyalL you say that and yet the front hasn't significantly changed. You speak with such confidence, but how can you really know? Isn't it at least possible you are parroting back propaganda? Don't you think it is at least possible that the West is over-exagerating Russian weakness? Can't you see the motivation of why western propaganda would try to convince us of this, that the war is winnable, when in fact the motivation is more of long, drawn out bleed-the-beast kind of strategy?

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben I've been closely following the conflict, watching lots of videos and expert analysis of the current stage from many sources

Again, victory is not guaranteed, but if they fail it's definitely because of not enough long range weapons and F16s.

They've proven they're much more formidable than the Russian military, repeatedly, given the superior western armament.

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben Russia has less than half the tanks they had in the beginning of this conflict. Ukraine now has more armour than Russia(!)

Russian elite units had lost 50%+ of their men, and experts explain that this leaves them combat ineffective.

Their logistics are hampered and they're lacking ammunition, and have been outgunned by Ukrainian artillery in many cases (Russia always had more artillery, but now they have to ration ammunition)

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben Russian soldiers cannot rotate due to lack of manpower, suffer from severe combat fatigue. Videos from Russian soldiers show many of the above issues

All in all, of course the USA should send weapons. It's morally the right choice, even if it made little military sense. They're defending themselves from genocide.

It's also practically the right choice, for just billions of dollars, the 70 year nemesis is reduced to a fraction of its former threat.

And it's good deterrence for China

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben if Russia had succeeded in Ukraine, that would have only been the beginning. Good thing we have Biden providing them weapons!

mettaben,

@EyalL do you support sending long range missiles (ATACMS) to Ukraine? If so, are you at all concerned about the war escalating beyond Ukraine's borders?

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben Ukraine promised to only use those weapons inside its borders so that's moot

But of course Ukraine should be able to fire at the sources of fire inside Russia. Russia can't be firing from within their borders with impunity.

The threat of escalation is empty.

mettaben,

@EyalL so that puts you one notch more militant than Joe Biden (so far, anyway). One of the things I really appreciate about Biden is that he has shown restraint at least with ATACMS and other long-range weapons. I think the Biden administration is wisely very concerned about the war escalating beyond Ukraine's borders. And for good reason. We don't want Russia thinking Ukraine war is an existential threat that it must win no matter what. Same thing goes for the West. The goal, in my opinion, should be to calm things down, and get both sides to the negotiating table. That's the only way this war ends.

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben the only way this war ends is when Russia leaves Ukraine, entirely. Then negotiations about reparations can begin.

And this must also happen if we are to have any hope of deterring aggression in the future.

This is achievable, and the only escalation left for Russia is nuclear, which they wouldn't use because it would be suicide.

mettaben,

@EyalL

Do you agree?

"First, a protracted war hurts Russia more than it hurts the United States. The whole point of a proxy war is to weaken a rival without the cost and risk that would come as a result of direct confrontation. It’s especially valuable against Russia because it’s the weaker of the United States’ two big rivals and because it’s a large continental power constantly tempted to expand at the expense of its neighbors. This combination of weakness and temptation is the Kremlin’s Achilles’s heel: As a large land empire with vulnerable frontiers, Russia is continually pulled into conflicts beyond its ability to manage. Britain exploited this problem in an earlier era—for example, by supporting Japan in its 1904 war against Russia, an example of a successful proxy war that effectively evicted Russia from the Far East. Similarly, the United States exploited the Kremlin’s quandary by supporting Afghanistan’s mujahedeen against a decaying Soviet empire in the 1980s."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/14/ukraine-war-russia-china-geopolitics-us-strategy-pacific-asia/

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben I think it's beside the point.

The point in aid to Ukraine is not weakening Russia. That's a side benefit.

The point is helping prevent genocide, torture chambers, kidnapping of children, execution of teenagers in the streets.

The point is also making sure that aggression does not pay off. Allowing Russia to gain land where it will stage the next attack is encouraging the next aggression. China is watching

mettaben,

@EyalL I will take you as sincere, but I will say many who speak similar to you in fact consider weakening Russia as the primary agenda, and sometimes even say the quiet part out loud. Massacres are a product of war. Policies of West ensure the war will continue in a steady state so long as Russia has more convicts to recruit, and it seems like they always do. West thinks this is "winning" (and gets to trade out its old stock of weaponry for sale to the world) but Russia gets to profit too in terms of war time price increases of natural resources and commodities. Plus Russia gets the West to execute all of its convicts, so it's a win-win for everybody.

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben you are plainly wrong about the facts here.

And no, the war crimes of Russia are not part of every war. Torture chambers and civilian mass graves found in every invaded city are not the normal of war.

Russia is losing this war, quite decisively, already

Their grip on the south and Crimea, dependent on either the kerch bridge or shipments, is failing. Both the above methods are no longer tenable due to successful attacks on the bridge and the threat of sinking any logistical ferries

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben once the southern front fails, Crimea will choke until it may as well surrender. The Russians will have no fresh water and no way to supply there.

The north is the only strong Russian position but by the time Ukraine fights there, the Russian military will be even weaker than it is now

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben Crimea, even without invading it directly, will be entirely under the firing range of Ukraine's artillery.

It will fall.

Russia will lose.

The incorrect facts about the direction of this war plus a lack of care about genocide or morals seem to lead you to accept crimes in the name of realpolitik.

Wrong on both accounts

mettaben,
EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben only text

EyalL,
@EyalL@mastodon.social avatar

@mettaben and clearly the answer to the question is: Russia

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