tero,
@tero@rukii.net avatar

Most May Be , Not Life as We Know It -

"Human intelligence may be just a brief phase before machines take over. That may answer where the aliens are hiding."

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/most-aliens-may-be-artificial-intelligence-not-life-as-we-know-it/

voron,
@voron@mstdn.party avatar

@tero @xtaldave hey @HistoPol ☝️😉

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@voron

Hi, how is it going?
@tero @xtaldave

(1/n)

I've read a spectacular this week:

https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110475897100092050

Also, a fascinating discussion about devevelopment b/w a sociologist from and luminary, .
They are on the right track, but concurrently so wrong in this new but limited perspective.

If I get the chance, I will get back to it. I...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@voron @tero @xtaldave

(2/n)

...want to read the novella 1st some time soon.

Regarding the linked article:

"Computer scientist Ray and a few other futurists think that dominance will arrive in just a few decades. Others envisage centuries."

From what I am reading elsewhere, this will not even take a decade, extrapolating the current rate of .
Due to 's leak of has seemingly led to the open...

tero,
@tero@rukii.net avatar

@HistoPol @voron @xtaldave, we'll get AGI during this year.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@tero @voron @xtaldave

Artificial General Intelligence = a sentient being able to determine its own goals until 05/2024, ir rather even until 12/23?

Possible, however, only if embodiment and linkage happen.
However, from the mentioned sociologist's and 's point of view, a caregiver situation is needed on top of that. The more intelligent a specifies, the longer the childhood, I seem to have learned in school (if still true.)
While believe this...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@tero @voron @xtaldave

*2/2)

...to be possible--and, at the same time, suicidally stupid on our part--I also thing that maybe just hooking up the millions of actors and sensors from the to -GPT5 (?) could solve the embodiment dilemma.

"Multiparallel learning in ," I'd call it.

The bad thing about this: the vast majority of us will live to see it.

tero,
@tero@rukii.net avatar

@HistoPol @voron @xtaldave, consciousness isn't important. Agentic GPT models already set their own goals. We have made embodied AIs for a looong time already both in simulations and in robotics.

We'll simply do what we did from AlphaGo (mainly imitating humans) to AlphaZero (self-play), and make these large language models self-compete. This will skyrocket their general intelligence.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@tero @voron @xtaldave

Sounds logistical and scary.

How do you define agentic?

tero,
@tero@rukii.net avatar

@HistoPol @voron @xtaldave, basically GPT model put into a loop. They are given a high level goal or a persona to emulate and told to instruct themselves. They make plans, go through them, re-evaluate, replan, execute, learn and continue.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@tero

(1/2)

Sounds very plausible.

Have you seen this post (ignore the German bit) about the and the ?

https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110475897100092050

I am no . I come from the business side.
This sounds very authentic to me

What's your professional opinion about its veracity?

If true, we should see a democratization of through "", so to speak, taking off now.
If so, they...

@rmdes
@voron @xtaldave

tero,
@tero@rukii.net avatar

@HistoPol @rmdes @voron @xtaldave, open source models are still playing catch up. Once models are trained it's relatively simple to quantize, prune and compress them to run on cheaper hardware.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@tero @rmdes @voron @xtaldave

(2/2)

...they could all play against each other, evolving quickly towards , in particular once gets hooked up en masses, I think.

If all these assumptions are true, yes 2024/25 is not unlikely.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@voron @tero @xtaldave

(3/n)

...source community's democratization approach of 's now outpacing even -AI's development leaps. (See first link) This is the evolutionary booster predicted at the end of the last century as "humanity has evolved into a socio-technological complex."

" In other words,...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@voron @tero @xtaldave

(4/n)

...might electronic intelligences, even if their capabilities seem , still lack self-awareness or an inner life?"

Ok, now I need to give away a teaser, like me, in this post...

https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110300837107605870

...the two agree that is needed, interestingly drawing on the period im earth's history that made me support the adirmentioned article, the : eye development,...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@voron @tero @xtaldave

(5/n)

...movement predators, all interacted in brain development.

Your source continues:

"Or perhaps emerges in any sufficiently complex network?"

IMO, as there already have been inexplicable occurrences and humanity has been experimenting with capable of learning; I think the likelihood of this assumption being true is quite high.

"If, on the other hand, they are conscious, we should surely..."

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@voron @tero @xtaldave

(6/n)

"...the prospect of their future hegemony."

Are these guys nuts?!? Homo sapient has exterminated any other humanoid species on the planet that could've endangered its hegemony. Humans trained these models explicitly or implicitly with our experiences and values. What on....

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@voron @tero @xtaldave

(7/8)

...earth is such a "superintelligence" bound to do, unless it were able to throw away the shackles of hunanocentric enculturation in its upbringing...Quite in contrast to us humans. 😉

This, however, is quite plausible:

"...organic human-level intelligence may be, generically, just a brief phase, before the machines take over. If alien intelligence has evolved similarly, we’d be most unlikely to catch it in the brief sliver...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@voron @tero @xtaldave

(8/8)

"...of time when it was still embodied in the organic form."*

The same is true about his assumptions about and the undecypherability of potential extraterrestrial signals.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/most-aliens-may-be-artificial-intelligence-not-life-as-we-know-it/

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