The #ONS will now not have revised labour force (#employment) figures available until the Autumn...
so, on one level we might say the #BoE is 'flying blind' given that they continue to insist the wage- #inflation link is the major factor they need to consider...
or... perhaps the folk in Threadneedle St. might actually look at some other data - imports, profits etc. - to decide on where the drivers on inflation lie....
and perhaps realise high #interestrates are punishing the wrong group(s)!
A #BoE deputy Governor is now saying that due to the problems with #ONS data on #wages growth, #interestrates cannot be lowered as the Bank is still unsure about the level of wages rises...
So, despite occasionally admitting that #profits & imports might be contributing to #inflation we're back to the tired old narrative that its #workers are to blame.
Given profits have 'recovered' but real wages remain below pre-2010 levels, I think its fair to say this is about cementing low-wage Britain!
As #retail#inflation continues to fall (but of course prices keep going up, just more slowly), will the #BoE think its #interestrate policy is working or carry on taking the Catherine Mann position that more pain is needed to get down to the target of 2% even if this means a #recession...
It'll be more 'if its not hurting its not working' rhetoric from Threadneedle St. I suspect, claiming its all a 'price worth paying' when its not them that are paying... but hey, I've said all this before!
The most important political economic Q. for the UK right now is how deep a #recession is the #BoE (& by extension the #Tories) prepared to engineer to 'tame inflation'?
As usual, those paying the price to reduce inflation, through the #Costoflivingcrisis & a descent into #poverty, are not the same people saying the 'price is worth paying'.
Using only #interestrates to deal with inflation is a political choice taken by those who have a clear notion of how to protect the interests of the rich!
If you've a #mortgage or other (variable rate repayment) #debt, if you thought this week was bad, investors & other #financialservices market participants are already betting the #BoE will need to raise rates further, possible to 6.5%;
of course this may not come to pass, but if you're already at the limit of what is possible, then there's a distinct likelihood its going to get worse...
And even if you switch to an interest only repayment regime for a while, the capital debt will be growing!
Talking about the #BoE. I remember being in a meeting with some people from the Bank of England in 2016, a few months after the #Brexit referendum (related to a software project).
At some point I made a joke and said "You are probably busy with mitigating Brexit now.."
The answer was: "We will need 1000 people for 10 years to even calculate the downside of Brexit. And then we still have no idea how to mitigate it."