This time about the rationale behind the russian human wave attacks.
This video highlights to me one core problem of war studies and IR: we (and e.g. russia) only have imperfect assessments on the thought process and values of our opposition.
What makes sense to us doesn't need to make sense to them. And the larger this discrepancy the larger the room for misunderstandings and errors.
I just finished the last two YT videos with @anderspuck
Really great analysis by him and Perun.
What I might add to the "Kofman" debate about Bakhmut is that the degradation of PMC Wagner really played nicely (though probably not directly intended) into the Ukrainian strategy of destabilising russia.
Without PMC Wagner's degradation the mutiny probably wouldn't have happened.
Did you already read Mearsheimer's new piece? What is your take on it?
IMO he underestimates russia's internal struggles (mutiny, purging of Generals, economic decline). And overestimates russian military capability (basically assumes that russia will get also Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Odessa at some point in the near future...).
It seems Mearsheimer has an agenda for one or another reason. He smooths over details, leaves out important parts of the war and bends things to fit his narrative.
I'm just halfway through the article, but maybe he proves me wrong in the latter half of his rambling.
@t_mkdf@anderspuck@NAFO_69th_Sniffing_Brigade
It’s junk.
It presumes Russia is a rational actor. It isn’t. Secondly it states Russia will win the war. It won’t. My argument isn’t a fanboy one, it is rational.
The war is the Ukraine + West vs Russia.
The economic comparison between these two sides is down right hysterical. The West can out produce Russia 100x over and that’s probably an understatement.
NATO won’t let Ukraine loose, therefore Ukraine can only win, it’s just a matter of when.
#Ukraine won’t stop. It’s total Western lifestyle and freedom or death. Again, not an exaggeration. It’s like the choice Eddie Izzard once offered. Cake 🎂 or death ☠️ ? Um, cake please. It has NATO at its back and is motivated.
Russian equipment is Soviet quality. Based on loss ratio it’s about a 5th as good as NATO equipment. So Russia would need to produce at a 5:1 ratio vs the West for military parity.
Observations.
I have a friend who still operates in the Twitterverse and he says the feeling there is that Russia will win. So this guy has his head stuck in that echo chamber.
The US is actually focused on Taiwan. It won’t go to war if that risks creating an opening for China. There are a lot of really bad scenarios if the West gets actively involved.
If Russia could win, they would be winning. They are loosing ground in defence and they are not doing to grind down their enemy like Ukraine did. Very roughly, Russia on attack was loosing about 5:1 versus Ukraine. Now Ukraine are on the counterattack and they are loosing 1:5 versus Russia.
Does anyone have more information about the rumour that the #G7 are planning a "#NATO" lite for Ukraine (funding, intel sharing, logistics, economic help...)?
If true this would be great news and signal to #russia that they cannot simply hope that Western resolve and support for #Ukraine will collapse.
@RedCore@t_mkdf "they are showing restrai[n]t cause they do want [p]eace" this propaganda pretense dropped when they first annexed Crimea using unmarked troops, then fully invaded Ukraine. If you still believe this 1 year into a war that Russia started with a fabricated casus belli and claimed it would win in 3 days, you're a mark.
German foreign minister AL Baerbock in The Guardian:
"Russia’s war of aggression has marked a rupture in the world. For my country, it has opened a new chapter, redefining how we seek to promote peace, freedom and sustainability in this world: as a partner that embraces its leadership."
My impression is that Germany is moving into this direction. Albeit with the dynamic of a big tanker.
Germany is late to the party again and is discussing different zones for energy prices (Denmark has 2, Norway 6, and Italy 7...).
The interesting thing is that with reliable on and off shore wind power energy prices in northern Germany could be really cheap compared to southern Germany (especially Bavaria which relied on nuclear... And gas. And where wind turbines are frowned upon).
That was the point for smart grid, if I remember correctly - unfortunately, if I remember correctly over the decade of Energiewende they managed to only modernize ~900 km out of 8000 km necessary :) Which sounds like “Merkel sabotage” again until you realize high-voltage cabling able to instantly supply the power from north to the south may be just as challenging technologically and environmentally as building new power plants down there…
@kravietz@chowderman yeah. And even more complicated in view of local objections against the project. Which let to undergrounding cables instead of cheaper overhead cables.