BM_Visser

BM_Visser, 7 months ago (edited 7 months ago) to random Dutch

Tomorrow, The Dutch will have 12 hours with a negative (day ahead) electricity price, and a couple of hours with a price equal to zero.
This is caused by a high production of wind energy in NW-Europe, combined with a relative low ('Sunday') power demand.

Although to a lesser extend, neighbouring countries witness as well a significant number of hours with negative power prices.

I expect, this phenomenon will increase significantly in coming years. Agree?

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

There are currently about 3 million E-bikes in the Netherlands. The total yearly electricity consumption of these E-bikes is about equal to the annual power generated of one offshore wind turbine.
The number of E-bikes has increased significantly in recent years. Offshore wind turbines have become bigger as well. As a coincidence, the similarity is true for a number of years now.

BM_Visser, 6 months ago to random Dutch

During the last 12 months on average 48% of Dutch power consumption came from renewable sources. A few years ago, this was just 10%.

In 2030, according to government planning, solar and wind should supply 85% of Dutch power demand.

Note that the fraction of biomass is shrinking. This is because Dutch coal-fired power plants are running less hours, which implies that there is less co-firing of biomass.

BM_Visser, 8 months ago to random Dutch

In just 6 years, the Dutch power mix has changed significantly. This is due to huge subsidy schemes (SDE) for in particular solar and wind investers and due to a very attractive system for households ('salderen' in combination with a high tax on electricity).
In the next 6 years, the contribution of solar and wind is expected to double.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago (edited 7 months ago) to random Dutch

This year, the Netherlands experiences almost 4% of hours with a negative electricity price. Denmark is the 'runner up'.

Germany, the birthplace of negative power prices, follows after Belgium, with just 2% of all hours.

It may be concluded that the closure of its nuclear power stations, although not very good for 'the climate', serves as a (temporary) relief for owners of wind and solar parks with respect to such power prices.

BM_Visser, 8 months ago to random Dutch

The Netherlands experiences an anusual weather pattern in september: high temperature, lots of sun and hardly any wind (onshore and offshore). Hence, gas-fired power stations are needed to guarantee power supply to society.
In future, under similar circumstances, this probably will be hydrogen-fired power stations, since batteries won't fill the (huge) gap.

BM_Visser, 8 months ago to random Dutch

Until now, this year, the Netherlands has had 536 hours* (6,6%) with solar & wind production >100% of the national electricity demand**. The average electricity price (day-ahead) during these hours was €10/MWh.

*This includes 109 hours of solar PV only providing >100% of national demand.

**More than 100% is possible because during these hours, the Netherlands exported large amounts of power to its neighbours; even up to 50% of national demand.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

In 2022, the Dutch CO2 emission per inhabitant, due to combustion processes, was equal to that in 1962.
Fair to say that since 1962, the Dutch population grew with 50%.

BM_Visser, 6 months ago to random Dutch

Since 2005, the usage of trains by passengers, measured in passenger-kilometres, has increased by about 25% in various European countries.
Mind that these countries have had rather different policies with respect to (high speed) trains, ticket prices and car mobility.
Any explanation?

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

Dutch power consumption in the first half of 2023 was the lowest in 20 years.
By the way, this includes the consumption by self-producers.

Interesting to see that the stable growth of Dutch electricity demand has stopped some 20 years ago. Any explanation?

BM_Visser, 6 months ago to random Dutch

In the Netherlands the average daily electricity price decreases by 1% point for every 1% increase of solar and wind in the Dutch electricity mix (horizontal axis). Extrapolation shows always a value close to zero at 100% solar and wind.
This 'Martien price law' has proven to be (more or less) correct since my first analysis of it in 2018.

The (virtual) price at 0% solar and wind in the mix, left side of the graph, is alway close to two times the gas price.

BM_Visser, 3 months ago to random Dutch

Renewable energy production in the Netherlands by heat pumps (for heating) and solar panels.
Combining both techniques at large scale causes significant stress to the electricity system.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

Yesterday, Sunday October 29th, the Netherlands produced almost 70% of its entire power demand from wind.

Power prices were negative for 12 consecutive hours, from 1 AM to 12 PM. This was 12 hours due to the introduction of winter time that night :).

The graph shows the estimated daily percentage of wind energy in the Dutch power mix sinds 2014. Curtailment of offshore wind is taken into account; curtailment of onshore wind is, by lack of data, not included.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

Renewable energy production (= electricity consumption) by heat pumps has an almost opposite pattern than electricity production by solar panels.
Both are expected to increase considerably in the built environment in coming decade(s). This will put signiifcant stress on the electricity system.
Data for the Netherlands.

BM_Visser, 1 month ago (edited 1 month ago) to random Dutch

In 2024, until now, the Netherlands has about 3% of all hours negative day ahead power prices. In 2023, this was 2%.
Negative prices can be seen as an anomaly of the power system, but appear for 2-3% of the time, almost everywhere in Europe in 2024.
I expect (and have predicted that years ago) that this phenomenon will become a common feature in Europe from 2025 onwards.

BM_Visser, 4 months ago to random Dutch

Comparison between the growth in renewable energy between The Netherlands and Denmark. Although Denmark is well known for its wind energy, the majority comes from biomass.

In 2030, the Netherlands wants to reach the current percentage of Denmark, albeit almost without biomass.

BM_Visser, 6 months ago to random Dutch

The contributions of solar and wind to Dutch power demand in October 2023.

During about 30 hours this Month, solar and wind supplied more than 100% of demand. This is possible since during these hours, there were considerable net exports.

On average, solar and wind contributed 44% of demand. In 2030, this should be 85%, according to government planning.

For your information, the day-ahead power prices are added (right axis).

BM_Visser, 8 months ago to random Dutch

During these sunny days in September, more than 30% of the total Dutch power demand comes from solar PV.

The graph shows the enormous growth of solar PV in the Netherlands in the last decade.

Nowadays, the Dutch 'solar PV per capita' is the highest in Europe and number 2 worldwide, with Australia as number 1.

It is quit certain that the annual growth of solar PV in the Netherlands will continue in the coming years.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

A couple of years ago, I virtually bought an electrolyser and base-load power.

I use this (virtual) electrolyser only when the day ahead power price is so low that green hydrogen is cheaper than blue or grey hydrogen at marginal costs.
If not, I sell the power to the power market.

This year, so far, the percentage of hours using the electrolyser is around 11%; an increase by 25% compared to last year.

The current market share of solar & wind is about 40%; it will increase to 85% in 2030.

BM_Visser, 5 months ago to random Dutch

Windy weather increases cooling buildings and hence requires more heating (in winter) which causes CO2 emissions.
On the other hand, more wind means more wind energy which reduces CO2 emissions from power stations.
Until last year, the wind chill effect on CO2 emissions prevailed in the Netherlands.

From this year onwards, due to better insulation and increased wind power, more wind implies lower Dutch CO2 emissions.

BM_Visser, 5 months ago to random Dutch

In 2022, according to Eurostat, the 41,2% of all electricity in the EU27 came from renewable sources.
In 2021, this was 37,5%.

With 40% renewables, the Netherlands were mid-table in 2022.

BM_Visser, 8 months ago to random Dutch

Virtually all offshore windturbine capacity in the Dutch part of the North Sea is owned by foreign* companies, for almost half from outside the EU27.
Shell is the biggest investor, followed by Vattenfall and RWE.

*the exception is HVC, a relative small energy & waste company, owned by some Dutch municipalities, with a 1% share.

BM_Visser, 2 months ago to random Dutch

In 2023, the percentage of renewable electricity in the Netherlands has become higher than in the UK.

BM_Visser, 20 days ago to random Dutch

My last blog (in Dutch) on www.energiepodium.nl (free). "Learn from the neighbors".

On novel network tarrifs for households, to stimulate them to use the scarce, expensive, capacity with care.

https://www.energiepodium.nl/artikel/leren-van-de-buren

BM_Visser, 17 days ago to random Dutch

On Sunday 12 May, in the Netherlands, I estimate that 65% of all onshore wind production had to be curtailed.
Also large curtailments will have taken place for large scale solar and offshore wind.

Note: real time onshore wind data in ENTSO-E are from wind parks connected to the TSO network. These are mainly large wind parks.
Since most other wind parks in the NL are operated, on behalve of the owners, by companies with 24/7 dealing rooms, I expect a similar behavior for those parks.