BM_Visser

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

There are currently about 3 million E-bikes in the Netherlands. The total yearly electricity consumption of these E-bikes is about equal to the annual power generated of one offshore wind turbine.
The number of E-bikes has increased significantly in recent years. Offshore wind turbines have become bigger as well. As a coincidence, the similarity is true for a number of years now.

BM_Visser, 6 months ago to random Dutch

Since 2005, the usage of trains by passengers, measured in passenger-kilometres, has increased by about 25% in various European countries.
Mind that these countries have had rather different policies with respect to (high speed) trains, ticket prices and car mobility.
Any explanation?

BM_Visser, 8 months ago to random Dutch

During these sunny days in September, more than 30% of the total Dutch power demand comes from solar PV.

The graph shows the enormous growth of solar PV in the Netherlands in the last decade.

Nowadays, the Dutch 'solar PV per capita' is the highest in Europe and number 2 worldwide, with Australia as number 1.

It is quit certain that the annual growth of solar PV in the Netherlands will continue in the coming years.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

Yesterday, Sunday October 29th, the Netherlands produced almost 70% of its entire power demand from wind.

Power prices were negative for 12 consecutive hours, from 1 AM to 12 PM. This was 12 hours due to the introduction of winter time that night :).

The graph shows the estimated daily percentage of wind energy in the Dutch power mix sinds 2014. Curtailment of offshore wind is taken into account; curtailment of onshore wind is, by lack of data, not included.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago (edited 7 months ago) to random Dutch

Tomorrow, The Dutch will have 12 hours with a negative (day ahead) electricity price, and a couple of hours with a price equal to zero.
This is caused by a high production of wind energy in NW-Europe, combined with a relative low ('Sunday') power demand.

Although to a lesser extend, neighbouring countries witness as well a significant number of hours with negative power prices.

I expect, this phenomenon will increase significantly in coming years. Agree?

BM_Visser, 6 months ago to random Dutch

In the Netherlands the average daily electricity price decreases by 1% point for every 1% increase of solar and wind in the Dutch electricity mix (horizontal axis). Extrapolation shows always a value close to zero at 100% solar and wind.
This 'Martien price law' has proven to be (more or less) correct since my first analysis of it in 2018.

The (virtual) price at 0% solar and wind in the mix, left side of the graph, is alway close to two times the gas price.

BM_Visser, 6 months ago to random Dutch

During the last 12 months on average 48% of Dutch power consumption came from renewable sources. A few years ago, this was just 10%.

In 2030, according to government planning, solar and wind should supply 85% of Dutch power demand.

Note that the fraction of biomass is shrinking. This is because Dutch coal-fired power plants are running less hours, which implies that there is less co-firing of biomass.

BM_Visser, 6 months ago to random Dutch

The 'explosive' increase of solar PV in The Netherlands continued in 2022. At the end of 2022, the installed solar capacity was more than 50% higher than the average Dutch power demand.
In 2023, another increase by about 4000 MW is expected.

The Netherlands is currently second in the world regarding the production of solar power per capita globally. Australia is no 1.

BM_Visser, 5 months ago to random Dutch

In 2023, NW-Europe had a record number of hours with negative power prices (day ahead). Such prices occur due to oversupply of electricity from sources with zero marginal costs (mainly solar and wind).
I expect that the number of hours with negative prices in NW-Europa will increase considerably in the coming years, because the growth of solar and wind (10-20% annually*) will be much larger than the growth of electricity consumption (about 1-2% annually*)
*source: FitFor55 scenario's).

BM_Visser, 3 months ago to random Dutch

The total length of separate cycle paths in the Netherlands exceeds the total length of all Dutch men and women.
Is this unique in the world ?

The 'cycling province' Drenthe has more than 4 meters of separate cycle path per inhabitant.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

Contributions of solar and wind to the Dutch power consumption, plus the hourly day-ahead power prices. You may observe a clear pricing pattern.
Solar + Wind can be above 100% of Dutch demand due to net exports from the Netherlands to neighbouring countries.

BM_Visser, 2 months ago to random Dutch

Last year, power demand in almost all EU countries decreased. On average, by 6%.

This had major consequences for the utilisation of coal and gas-fired generation, since these are the most expensive ones with regard to marginal costs. And so, less CO2-credits (ETS) were needed for th EU power sector.

Moreover, the decrease in the EU power demand boosted the percentage renewables, since hydro, wind and solar production is hardly affected by lower demand.

BM_Visser, 1 month ago to random Dutch

The rapid growth of Dutch solar: from dwarf to world champion in just 10 years.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago (edited 7 months ago) to random Dutch

This year, the Netherlands experiences almost 4% of hours with a negative electricity price. Denmark is the 'runner up'.

Germany, the birthplace of negative power prices, follows after Belgium, with just 2% of all hours.

It may be concluded that the closure of its nuclear power stations, although not very good for 'the climate', serves as a (temporary) relief for owners of wind and solar parks with respect to such power prices.

BM_Visser, 5 months ago to random Dutch

In Europe, the Netherlands does not only have the largest solar PV capacity per inhabitant, it also has the largest share of solar PV in its entire electricity mix.
Sunny countries like Spain and Greece follow.

BM_Visser, 5 months ago to random Dutch

At #COP28, many participants have promised to 'triple renewable generation before 2030'.

Let's asume the reference year for this promise is 2021 and that generation is about power generation only. Anyone more detailed info?

Than this promise is equivalent with the current EU27 objectives for 2030 to reach 42,5% renewables.

It would, by the way, include a doubling of the annual growth rate of solar and wind in EU27.

BM_Visser, 7 months ago to random Dutch

In 2022, the Dutch CO2 emission per inhabitant, due to combustion processes, was equal to that in 1962.
Fair to say that since 1962, the Dutch population grew with 50%.

BM_Visser, 1 month ago to random Dutch

So far the Netherlands has experienced 92 hours with a negative (day ahead) power price this year.
At the end of April in 2023, it were just 52 hours.
In the Netherlands, solar and wind increase by about 20% per year, while power demand is about stable.

BM_Visser, 8 months ago to random Dutch

In just 6 years, the Dutch power mix has changed significantly. This is due to huge subsidy schemes (SDE) for in particular solar and wind investers and due to a very attractive system for households ('salderen' in combination with a high tax on electricity).
In the next 6 years, the contribution of solar and wind is expected to double.

BM_Visser, 5 months ago to random Dutch

In 2022, the Netherlands produced more than 300 MWh of wind energy per square kilometer of land (& lakes).
This was almost 50% more than Denmark and Belgium, and 10% more than Germany.

BM_Visser, 27 days ago to random Dutch

In April 2024, the Netherlands, experienced on almost all days for some hours a more than 100% contribution of solar and wind to the national power demand.

Overproduction of solar and wind electricity was either exported, up to 50% of national demand, or had to be curtailed for technical or commercial reasons.

BM_Visser, 22 days ago to random Dutch

In 2024, so far, there have been 85 hours with wholesale power prices in the whole ARRRA region (DE/BE/NL) below 1 €/MWh, indicating that solar and wind in these hours outpace electricity demand.

Since in the coming years, solar and wind will grow much faster than electricity demand years, an increase of such hours may be expected.

BM_Visser, 24 days ago (edited 24 days ago) to random Dutch

While some EU-countries treat 'energy' as a 'basic need' and apply the low VAT rate, others treat energy as a 'luxury good' and apply the high VAT rate.

BM_Visser, 20 days ago to random Dutch

Tomorrow afternoon, May 11th, electricity is for free at the wholesale level in a region from Spain to Finland.

Exceptions are UK and Poland. But since these countries invest in a significant expansion of solar and wind as well, they will follow soon.

BM_Visser, 17 days ago to random Dutch

On Sunday 12 May, in the Netherlands, I estimate that 65% of all onshore wind production had to be curtailed.
Also large curtailments will have taken place for large scale solar and offshore wind.

Note: real time onshore wind data in ENTSO-E are from wind parks connected to the TSO network. These are mainly large wind parks.
Since most other wind parks in the NL are operated, on behalve of the owners, by companies with 24/7 dealing rooms, I expect a similar behavior for those parks.