I don't think people understand how extremely unusual the huge rise in global surface and ocean temperatures were in 2023 (and now in 2024), how #climate scientists are struggling to understand it, and the growing worry in the science community about what it means.
Here's a new article from one of the world's top climate scientists. Are we in "uncharted territory?"
"We need answers for why 2023 turned out to be the warmest year in possibly the past 100,000 years."
@petergleick There's a lot more knowledge out there in addition to climate models that all point to the climate is changing quickly -- and not for the better. Animal migration and sicknesses, fewer fish (the losses not caused by over fishing, like salmon), glaciers melting more quickly, more extreme weather, more huge forest fires, the movement of parasites and vector borne diseases, more extreme heat waves that keep breaking temperature records. When the climate changes, everything that lives within it is affected and reacts. And it's all happening quite quickly -- it's all uncharted territory
@petergleick is it heating from underneath? It's an uneducated question, but do we look at ocean floors and deep sea contact with hot lava coming up in crevasses or do we just look at atmosphere and incoming solar heat?
@redshiftdrift Actually, the models are remarkably accurate. But the single year anomalous warming and the unusually widespread regional and oceanic warming are not readily explained by them.
@petergleick Climate models are evaluated for accuracy by hindcasting, or replicating the climate of the past century.
As with the stock market, past performance is a poor indicator of future performance.
I am not convinced of the accuracy of climate models, and this new unpredicted heat anomaly doesn't help to mitigate my doubts.
@redshiftdrift I'm sorry Louis, but the models are remarkably accurate. Even last year's sharp increase is in line with long-term projections. What's unusual is some of the regional anomalies that are affected by short-term or transient phenomena that are poorly understood or working in unusual combinations.
@redshiftdrift Here's a graphic showing climate model projections and actual observed data. As you can see the last year showed a staggering temperature increase, but it's still within the envelope of projected warning.
What it also shows is, that 2023 will be within the mein trend in the 2030s. And this is wild. I was a kid in the 1980s, when it was ~1,2 degres cooler and a teen in the 1990s when it was ~1 degree cooler. I really remember: climate was way different back then. And I really begin to think, we are past the point to stop it. But what we can at least control: how bad will it get...
@RomanVilgut@petergleick@jknodlseder What we can control is in the hands of consumers who prefer to buy cheap throw-away products that don't last and pollute the atmosphere. This is very expensive in the long term, but humanity thrives on short term solutions 🙄
Earth has long term mechanisms to regulate its climate, we are not completely doomed. (E.g. we have to stop making kids or else, the climate will take care of population control.)
@redshiftdrift@RomanVilgut@petergleick@jknodlseder Your point about population is on the mark. As an example, half the people mean half the resources extracted and consumed, half the pollution, half the emissions, half the waste and all the rest. It's an aspect people don't want to talk about -- there's no good way to slow or even reverse numbers. The planet will do it for us.
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