beadsland,

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent data mid-Sept—next update due Oct 11.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer and fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111128280958966349

beadsland,

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared two summers ago—as fewer and fewer professionals have been available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been further elevated for months now—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

beadsland,

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, near one in six pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing. (There's been a very slight recovery in recent weeks.)

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 69%.

Weekly average ~110 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

beadsland,

Some 236 (+3) counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥ 90%).

Of 265 (-4) counties reporting any PICU capacity, near one in five are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒉ Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK ≥133⅓%
⒊ Dawson, NE ≥133⅓%

Idaho—117%

⒋ Fairfax, VA—116%
⒌ Florence, SC—116%

⒍ Collin, TX—100%
⒎ Somerset, NJ—100%
⒏ Bonneville, ID—100%
⒐ Anoka, MN—100%
⒑ Onslow, NC—100%

❖

beadsland,

Counties by pediatric ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above—counties with four or fewer PICU patients omitted):

⒈ Garland, AR ≥150%

⒉ Monroe, NY—104%

⒊ Jefferson, TX—100%
⒋ Brazos, TX—100%
⒌ Florence, SC—100%

⒍ Nueces, TX—99%
⒎ Norfolk city, VA—95%
⒏ Miami-Dade, FL—95%
⒐ Dane, WI—94%
⒑ Monongalia, WV—94%

❖

beadsland,

Some 41 (-1) counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 193 (+1)—near 8% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—near one in six are full or near full.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by adult hospital capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Berkeley, SC ≥150%
⒉ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒊ Scott, TN ≥150%
⒋ Charleston, SC ≥150%

⒌ Marshall, KY—120%
⒍ Buchanan, MO—117%
⒎ Smyth, VA—114%

⒏ Yuma, AZ—105%
⒐ Wise, VA—104%
⒑ Kenton, KY—103%

❖

beadsland,

Counties by adult ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above):

⒈ Madison, MS ≥110%
⒉ Campbell, KY—104%

⒊ Houston, AL—100%
⒋ Fayette, GA—100%
⒌ Brazos, TX—100%

⒍ Jackson, MS—100%
⒎ Anoka, MN—100%
⒏ Muskegon, MI—100%
⒐ Clearfield, PA—100%
⒑ Columbia, FL—100%

❖

beadsland,

Twenty-second week of post-Kraken soup, Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2/EG approaches four tenths of three-week GISAID sequences; Hyperion 1.9.1/FL down below one in seven.

Arcturus XBB.1.16 family down to below one in four; Kraken XBB.1.5 fam holds below one in ten; Acrux 2.3 fam now below one in thirteen.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖

CDC's Variant Nowcast showing weighted estimated distribution of variants over fortnights ending 6/24/23 thru 9/2/23, with model-projected estimates for following two fortnights. Proportional stacked bar chart, where each color represents a different variant, inclusive of those descendants not otherwise broken out. Kraken XBB.1.5 (indigo) was dominant through May. Now crowded out by EG.5 (peach, incl. Eris EG.5.1), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss), Eris-scion HV.1 (ash), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover) Meanwhile newly broken out variants Arcturus dot15 XBB.1.16.15 (mauve) and dot13 child HF.1 (faded pink) are gaining share steadily; with dot11 (muted pink) having grown into a seeming plateau. XBB.1.5 estimated at 5.8%, 2.4% and 1.1% vs. 8.4% fortnight of 8/19, for average -48% biweekly drop in estimated share. FL.1.5.1 at 8.3%, 11.9% & 13.7% vs. 7.1%, for avg +25% gain in est. share. EG.5 at 22.2%, 26.1% & 29.4% vs. 17.9%, for avg +18% gain in est. share. HV.1 at 4.0%, 8.1% & 12.9% vs. 3.1%, for avg. +64% gain in share. XBB.1.16.6 at 10.4% & 10.1% vs. 10.1%, for avg +9% gain in share. XBB.1.16.11 at 10.1%, 10.4%, 10.1% vs. 7.9%, for avg. +9% gain in share. HF.1 at 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.8% vs. 1.1%, for avg. +19% gain in share. XBB.1.16.15 at 1.2%, 1.6%, 2.0% vs. 0.8%, for avg. +36% gain in share. ALT-text by beadsland on Ko-fi.

beadsland,

After 8 weeks, CDC resumed estimates for all but the New Eng. and NW.

EG.5 btw ⅖ & ¼ share in tracked regions except SW.

FL.1.5.1 over ¼ share in NY/NJ; near ⅒ most other regions.

HV.1 btw ⅕ & ⅑ all but Mtn/Dakotas, Middle South & SW.

XBB.1.16.6 near ⅙ in SW; over ⅛ in Mid Sou.

[See toot above for variants CDC map color key & links to sources for charts.]

❖

Map: Nowcast Estimates for 9/17/2023 - 9/30/2023 by HHS Region Source: Centers for Disease Control Map shows pie charts for each of 10 regions, reflecting regional estimated proportions for specimens collected two weeks ending 9/30/2023. Bold annotation overwrites map, reading "Nowcast estimates are only available for regions 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9." Regions 1 (New England) and 10 (Pacific Northwest) are empty grey. Dominant strains by region: NY/NJ: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 28.0%) and FL.1.5.1 (moss 25.9%). Mid-Atlantic: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 29.2%), Eris scion HV.1 (ash 15.4%), and FL.1.5.1 (moss 14.3%). Southwest: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 22.2%), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 15.7%), and Eris scion HV.1 (ash 15.5%). Great Lakes: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 32.3%), Eris scion HV.1 (ash 12.1%), and FL.1.5.1 (moss 10.5%). Middle South: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 25.6%), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 12.2%), FL.1.5.1 (moss 10.5%), Acrux 2.3 (cotton candy 9.8%). Lower Midwest: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 25.2%), Eris scion HV.1 (ash 17.0%), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 9.3%). Mtn/Dakotas: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 38.0%), FL.1.5.1 (moss 11.3%), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 10.7%). Southwest: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 36.5%), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 8.8%), and Eris scion HV.1 (ash 8.3%). ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.

beadsland,

This week, added two hundred lines to library: refactoring, documenting and building preliminary version of new decorated legends artist. This will later be backported into the covid variants orchard-chart .

Despite some thousand lines of python this far, further work on variants dataviz (reskin of CDC data) now on hold, pending further necessary refactoring & new planned features for capacity area-chart & levels choropleth.

Chart: Experimental: Skinning CDC's Variant Nowcast Subtitle: Adding common names and grouping by common-name families. Five rectangular tree-charts, side by side, for fortnights ending June 24 through August 19. A legend to the right is organized by subheadings, with the items under each subheading being different intensities of a shared color. Percentages overlay each color key. [These are for the last of the five tree charts.] Comparing the charts, it is evident that Kraken family (blue) has moved from first position to third, outpaced by Arcturus family (red) in week 3, and Hyperion-2 family (purple) in week 4. Legend: Hyperion-2 [red] 28% - EG.5, HV.1 & EG.6.1 2% - other Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2 / EG Arcturus [purple] 21% - XBB.1.16.6 / JF, XBB.1.16.1 / FU, XBB.1.16.11, HF.1 & XBB.1.16.15 / JM 8% - other Arcturus XBB.1.16 Hippogryph [orange] 12% - Fornax FL.1.5.1 / HN & other Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 / FL 1% - XBB.1.42.2 / HL & FE.1.1 Kraken [blue] 3% - XBB.1.5.72, XBB.1.5.68 / HZ, XBB.1.5.10, XBB.1.5.59, XBB.1.5.1 / HJ, EU.1.1 3% - GK.2 & other XBB.1.5.70/GK ¼% - FD.1.1 & FD.2 6% - other Kraken XBB.1.5 Acrux [green] 3% - GE.1 & XBB.2.3.8 / HG 9% - other Acrux XBB.2.3 Other [grey] ⅜% - Orthus CH.1.1 & Hydra BN.1 ¼% - BA.2.12.1 / BG & other Omicron-2 BA.2 0% - Cerbrus BQ.1.1 & other Typhon BQ.1 4% - other Grypon GBB ⅙% - B.1.617.2 / AY & Other (not specified)

beadsland,

Folk are dying at record numbers, of comorbidities of severe acute covid that are also implicated as post-acute sequelae of covid infection. ↺

Of course, ongoing hospital staffing attrition also contributes to elevated death tolls. Said attrition continues. ↺

[CDC ended excess death reporting Sep 27.]

❖

Chart: Elevated Non-Circulatory Causes of Death: Annualized Dev. from 2015-2019 Avg Data: CDC, Census. Reflects death certs that do not identify covid as underlying cause. [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines 2015–20; solid dots for annualized Jan 2021–June 2023. [Six weeks incomplete data omitted.] Dotted lines for trends from Jan 2020 forward, for each disease category. Dash-dot line for sepsis trend had concerted effort at reduction in 2019 not occurred. Legend: • Diabetes (+10K more annualized deaths vs. 2019) • Alzheimers and dementia (+18K) • Renal failure (+5K) • Sepsis (+4K) • Malignant neoplasms (+14K) • Projected U.S. 65+ population Caption: After spiking in first year of the pandemic, annualized Alzheimer disease and dementia mortality dropped just as swiftly, thereafter remaining near or below historical trend. Diabetes mortality has not been so quick to recover from first year spike, only beginning to decline in the second half of last year, though still well above pre-pandemic trend. Deaths by sepsis were markedly down in 2019, following a coordinated national effort by hospitals. Despite this, sepsis mortality has been climbing at a rate well above even pre-2019’s relatively flat trendline, for over three years now. Renal failure deaths didn’t see an appreciable climb until the latter part of 2021, peaking only months ago. Meanwhile, malignant neoplasm (cancer) deaths, slower to manifest, have been suggestively creeping above trend for well over a year.

beadsland,

Given evidence linking covid infection to sudden onset liver damage, recent increased liver disease mortality is hardly surprising.

Final mortality data for 2020—released on Friday—reveals spike in accidental deaths driven by poisonings & exposure to noxious substances.

[CDC data for 2021 due this year.]

❖

Chart: Causes of Accidental Deaths: Reported Annual Data Data: National Center for Health Statistics [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines for annual data for years 2015 through 2020. Chart is blank 2021 to 2022. Legend: • Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances (up 32.9% btw. 2019 & 2020) [~87K total in 2020] • Motor vehicle accidents (up 8.4%) [42K] • Falls (up 6.8%) [42K] • Accidental hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (down -4.1%) [7K] • Accidental drowning and submersion (up 13.1%) [4K] • Accidental exposure to smoke, fire, and flames (up 9.6%) [3K] • Accidental discharge of firearms (up 10.1%) [½K] • All other unintentional injuries (down -1.2%) [15K] [A table below the legend ranks these items by rate of change.] Captions: Historically, U.S. health authorities have published “Final Data”—detailed tables and demographic analysis of causes of mortality—about eighteen months, give or take, from the close of each calendar year. It took nearly thirty-three months to release final data for 2020. Data for 2021 remains significantly overdue. ---- Despite popular conjecture, the observed sharp increase in accidental deaths between 2019 and 2020 was not due to motor vehicle accidents. Rather, accidental poisonings—up by a third over the prior year—account for nearly all the increase in elevated deaths by accidental causes.

beadsland,

Per WHO, every 12 minutes four people die of acute covid. Three of those deaths are in the United States.

Entering April, for every three covid deaths, U.S. saw another excess death not attributed to covid.

The emergency is over—covid is not done with us.

[Share of deaths viz gains 3 weeks with new data.]

❖

Chart: U.S. Share of 28-Day Covid Deaths Data: WHO (via Our World in Data), NCHS (via CDC), official srcs (via Wikipedia) [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Shows covid 28-day mortality as reported for the U.S. as share of G8, G20, and global 28-day mortality, for 3 years through Sept. 24, 2023, this being the most recent date on which at least 50% of world population was represented in weekly reporting (see note regarding ◇ data points, below). Share of population for each comparison is provided for reference. With the end of PHE aggregate tracking, U.S. ceased reporting covid deaths to WHO. After 5/14/23, chart uses provisional covid deaths from NCHS. ◇ data points represent sum population (via Wikipedia) of those countries that reported at least one death in prior week, as percentage of world pop. [Down to near 60% as of July. Was 90% last August.] 7-day avg of U.S. share of G8 covid deaths at 85.4%, on an upward trajectory, well exceeding share of pop. (~38%). Same date last year, share of G8 covid deaths was 43.1%, jaggedly climbing toward winter. Avg. U.S. share of G20 covid deaths now 64.7% (vs. ~7% of G20 population). Same date last year: 25.4%. U.S. share of global parallels: now 62.4% (vs. ~4% of pop.). This date last year, U.S. share of global covid deaths was 23.6%. All three metrics were near or below respective populations roughly May–Aug 2021; thereafter have been profoundly higher than population but for a troughs due to data dump by China in May 2023.

beadsland,

Here's hoping—as 100+ dolphins die in 102℉ Amazon river, MS & Google up water usage by 34% & 20% respectively, Baltimore's Wen tours the Obama drinking glass circuit, unmasked Kaiser Permanente nurses struck & unfunded adjunct masks up to accept Nobel for vaccine that many insurance companies won't pay for even assuming pharmacies have any doses—that all those reading this are having a week wherein they & theirs are putting health & welfare of those they love—and share air with—first & foremost.

  • All
  • Subscribed
  • Moderated
  • Favorites
  • •
  • random
  • thenastyranch
  • DreamBathrooms
  • tacticalgear
  • magazineikmin
  • khanakhh
  • everett
  • Youngstown
  • mdbf
  • slotface
  • rosin
  • ethstaker
  • InstantRegret
  • kavyap
  • ngwrru68w68
  • megavids
  • cisconetworking
  • cubers
  • osvaldo12
  • modclub
  • GTA5RPClips
  • tester
  • Durango
  • provamag3
  • anitta
  • Leos
  • normalnudes
  • JUstTest
  • lostlight
  • All magazines
    •