beadsland,

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent data last Wed—next update due Novem. 8.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer & fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111207900053730309

beadsland,

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared two summers ago—as fewer and fewer professionals have been available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been further elevated for months now—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

beadsland,

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, near one in five pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing.

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 69%.

Weekly average ~170 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

beadsland,

[HHS didn't update data this week.]

Some 238 counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥90%).

Of 268 counties reporting any PICU capacity, over one in five are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

beadsland,

[HHS failed to update facilities data this week.]

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒉ Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK ≥133⅓%
⒊ San Juan, UT ≥133⅓%

⒋ Fairfax, VA—114%

Idaho—114%

⒌ Shelby, TN—102%

⒍ Collin, TX—100%
⒎ Bonneville, ID—100%
⒏ Anoka, MN—100%
⒐ Onslow, NC—100%
⒑ Salem city, VA—100%

❖

beadsland,

[HHS didn't update data this week.]

Some 51 counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 204—near 8½% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—over one in six are full or near full.

❖

beadsland,

[HHS failed to update facilities data this week.]

Counties by adult hospital capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Berkeley, SC ≥150%
⒉ Chatham, GA ≥150%
⒊ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒋ Charleston, SC ≥150%
⒌ Marshall, KY ≥150%

⒍ Scott, TN—144%
⒎ Smyth, VA—131%

⒏ Buchanan, MO—115%

⒐ Yuma, AZ—105%
⒑ Harlan, KY—105%

❖

beadsland, (edited )

After some five months of post-Kraken soup, we essentially entered an XBB.1.9 wave late September.

Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2/EG wave kicked off this week.

For 3-week GISAID sequences, Hyperion-2 now over ⅖ share; Hyperion 1.9.1/FL holds at ⅛.

Arcturus XBB.1.16 family still over ⅕. Kraken under ¹⁄₁₁.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖

beadsland,

After 10 weeks, CDC still had no estimates for New Eng and NW, droped Middle South again.

EG.5 near ³⁄₁₀ of samples in Mtn/Dakotas & SW; near ¼ in Gr Lks & Mid-Atlantic; around ⅕ in Lower Midwest, NY/NJ & Southeast.

HV.1 over ¼ in Mid-Atl; near ¼ L Midw. FL.1.5.1 near ¼ in NY/NJ.

[See toot above for variants CDC map color key & links to sources for charts.]

❖

Map: Nowcast Estimates for 10/1/2023 - 10/14/2023 by HHS Region Source: Centers for Disease Control Map shows pie charts for each of 10 regions, reflecting regional estimated proportions for specimens collected two weeks ending 10/14/2023. Bold annotation overwrites map, reading "Nowcast estimates are only available for regions 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 and 9." Regions 1 (New England), 6 (Middle South) and 10 (Pacific Northwest) are empty grey. Dominant strains by region: NY/NJ: Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 23.7%), Eris scion HV.1 (limed ash 20.8%), and Eris fam EG.5 (peach 20.4%). Mid-Atlantic: Eris scion HV.1 (limed ash 25.7%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 22.9%), and Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 13.7%). Southwest: Eris scion HV.1 (limed ash 21.5%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 19.9%), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 16.1%). Great Lakes: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 24.6%), Eris scion HV.1 (limed ash 19.4%), and Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 10.0%). Lower Midwest: Eris scion HV.1 (limed ash 24.3%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 22.3%), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 9.4%). Mtn/Dakotas: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 28.9%), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 13.9%), and Eris scion HV.1 (limed ash 13.5%). Southwest: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 31.4%), Eris scion HV.1 (limed ash 13.6%), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 9.1%), ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.

beadsland,

Spent some time this week refining the tile bundling and family grouping logic of experimental variant proportions , before finishing refactoring decorated pie charts and beginning same for decorated legends. Both of the latter will be incorporated into variant proportions .

Work on area-chart capacity & levels choropleth dataviz still planned for the coming weeks, along with scripts for working with CDC Wonder mortality data.

Chart: Experimental: Skinning CDC's Variant Nowcast Subtitle: Adding common names and grouping by common-name families. Five rectangular tree-charts, side by side, for fortnights ending July 22 through September 16. A legend to the right is organized by subheadings, with the items under each subheading being different intensities of a shared color. Percentages overlay each color key. [These are for the last of the five tree charts.] Comparing the charts, it is evident that Arcturus XBB.1.16 family (purple) has moved from first position to second, outpaced by Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2 / EG family (red), inclusive of Eris EG.5.1 family (green). Legend: Hyperion-2 [red] 25% - EG.5 & EG.6.1 9% - HV.1 & HK.3 1% - other Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2 / EG Arcturus [purple] 21% - XBB.1.16.6 / JF, XBB.1.16.1 / FU, XBB.1.16.11, HF.1 & XBB.1.16.15 / JM 6% - other Arcturus XBB.1.16 Hyperion [blue] 11% - Fornax FL.1.5.1 / HN 2% - other Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 / FL Kraken [green] 3% - XBB.1.5.68 / HZ, XBB.1.5.72, XBB.1.5.10, XBB.1.5.1 / HJ, XBB.1.5.59 & EU.1.1 2% - GK.1.1 & GK.2 ¼% - FD.1.1 & FD.2 1% - other XBB.1.5.70 / GK 4% - other Kraken XBB.1.5 Hippogryph XBB.1 [orange] ¾% - XBB.1.42.2 / HL & FE.1.1 Other [grey] 2% - GE.1 & XBB.2.3.8 / HG ⅖% - Orthus CH.1.1 & Hydra BN.1 0% - Cerebrus BQ.1.1 & other Typhon BQ.1 ⅙% - BA.2.12.1 / BG & other Omicron-2 BA.2 6% - other Acrux XBB.2.3 4% - other Grypon GBB ⅑% - B.1.617.2 / AY, other Omicron B.1.1.529 & Other (not specified)

beadsland,

Folk are dying at record numbers, of comorbidities of severe acute covid that are also implicated as post-acute sequelae of covid infection. ↺

Of course, ongoing hospital staffing attrition also contributes to elevated death tolls. Said attrition continues. ↺

[CDC ended excess death reporting Sep 27.]

❖

Chart: Elevated Non-Circulatory Causes of Death: Annualized Dev. from 2015-2019 Avg Data: CDC, Census. Reflects death certs that do not identify covid as underlying cause. [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines 2015–20; solid dots for annualized Jan 2021–June 2023. [Six weeks incomplete data omitted.] Dotted lines for trends from Jan 2020 forward, for each disease category. Dash-dot line for sepsis trend had concerted effort at reduction in 2019 not occurred. Legend: • Diabetes (+10K more annualized deaths vs. 2019) • Alzheimers and dementia (+18K) • Renal failure (+5K) • Sepsis (+4K) • Malignant neoplasms (+14K) • Projected U.S. 65+ population Caption: After spiking in first year of the pandemic, annualized Alzheimer disease and dementia mortality dropped just as swiftly, thereafter remaining near or below historical trend. Diabetes mortality has not been so quick to recover from first year spike, only beginning to decline in the second half of last year, though still well above pre-pandemic trend. Deaths by sepsis were markedly down in 2019, following a coordinated national effort by hospitals. Despite this, sepsis mortality has been climbing at a rate well above even pre-2019’s relatively flat trendline, for over three years now. Renal failure deaths didn’t see an appreciable climb until the latter part of 2021, peaking only months ago. Meanwhile, malignant neoplasm (cancer) deaths, slower to manifest, have been suggestively creeping above trend for well over a year.

beadsland,

Given evidence linking covid infection to sudden onset liver damage, recent increased liver disease mortality is hardly surprising.

Final mortality data for 2020—released on Friday—reveals spike in accidental deaths driven by poisonings & exposure to noxious substances.

[CDC data for 2021 due this year.]

❖

Chart: Causes of Accidental Deaths: Reported Annual Data Data: National Center for Health Statistics [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines for annual data for years 2015 through 2020. Chart is blank 2021 to 2022. Legend: • Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances (up 32.9% btw. 2019 & 2020) [~87K total in 2020] • Motor vehicle accidents (up 8.4%) [42K] • Falls (up 6.8%) [42K] • Accidental hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (down -4.1%) [7K] • Accidental drowning and submersion (up 13.1%) [4K] • Accidental exposure to smoke, fire, and flames (up 9.6%) [3K] • Accidental discharge of firearms (up 10.1%) [½K] • All other unintentional injuries (down -1.2%) [15K] [A table below the legend ranks these items by rate of change.] Captions: Historically, U.S. health authorities have published “Final Data”—detailed tables and demographic analysis of causes of mortality—about eighteen months, give or take, from the close of each calendar year. It took nearly thirty-three months to release final data for 2020. Data for 2021 remains significantly overdue. ---- Despite popular conjecture, the observed sharp increase in accidental deaths between 2019 and 2020 was not due to motor vehicle accidents. Rather, accidental poisonings—up by a third over the prior year—account for nearly all the increase in elevated deaths by accidental causes.

beadsland,

Per WHO, every 12 minutes four people die of acute covid. Three of those deaths are in the United States.

Entering April, for every three covid deaths, U.S. saw another excess death not attributed to covid.

The emergency is over—covid is not done with us.

[Shares of death down as countries trickle data.]

❖

Chart: U.S. Share of 28-Day Covid Deaths Data: WHO (via Our World in Data), NCHS (via CDC), official srcs (via Wikipedia) [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Shows covid 28-day mortality as reported for the U.S. as share of G8, G20, and global 28-day mortality, for 3 years through Sept. 24, 2023, this being the most recent date on which at least 50% of world population was represented in weekly reporting (see note regarding ◇ data points, below). Share of population for each comparison is provided for reference. With the end of PHE aggregate tracking, U.S. ceased reporting covid deaths to WHO. After 5/14/23, chart uses provisional covid deaths from NCHS. ◇ data points represent sum population (via Wikipedia) of those countries that reported at least one death in prior week, as percentage of world pop. [Down to near 60% as of July. Was 90% last August.] 7-day avg of U.S. share of G8 covid deaths at 77.7%, on an upward trajectory, well exceeding share of pop. (~38%). Same date last year, share of G8 covid deaths was 43.1%, jaggedly climbing toward winter. Avg. U.S. share of G20 covid deaths now 59.8% (vs. ~7% of G20 population). Same date last year: 25.4%. U.S. share of global parallels: now 59.8% (vs. ~4% of pop.). This date last year, U.S. share of global covid deaths was 23.6%. All three metrics were near or below respective populations roughly May–Aug 2021; thereafter have been profoundly higher than population but for few troughs, including a data dump by China in May 2023.

beadsland,

Here's hoping—as Amazon rivers fall to record lows, Gaza desalination plants remain offline, U.S. wastewater surveillance all but ends, Economist estimates death toll ~4× official tally, Fortune estimates $14 trillion lost in 4 years, Colbert realizes he can't work through covid, and 400+ Congressional staffers anonymously call for cease-fire—that all those reading this are having a week wherein they & theirs are putting health and welfare of those they love—and share air with—first & foremost.

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