How should numeric probabilities be translated into words? Maybe they shouldn't be.
"Words of estimative probability" wreak havoc in high-stakes communication like #intelligenceCommunity assessments and briefings, in part because intelligence and defense institutions map numbers to different words (!) — see Amelia Kahn's forthcoming work at ameliakahn.wordpress.com.
Teaching medical students a pro-con—missing-and-rank reflection protocol and then having them teach it to an imaginary stranger (on video) helped students better remember alternative diagnoses (besides their initial diagnosis).
Bonus: just telling people that a task was difficult also helped among participants who didn’t learn and teach the reflection exercise.
Catarina Dutiful Novaes' 2023 Aristotelean Society paper asks whether John Stuart Mill is right that arguments change minds for the better.
Novaes proposes a “three-tiered model” of conditions that partially determine whether this happens.
So Mill is partially vindicated by the model: “engaging with dissenters may allow for the correction of errors” under certain necessary (but not sufficient) conditions.
Although correct reflection test answers predicted lower "endorsement" of a "planned disease" #conspiracyTheory, not all of the interventions that involved reflecting on the theory's #logic reduced people's endorsement of it.
People who were told that the conspiracy would not be detrimental even if it were true reported less agreement with it.
People who were shown the theory's logical fallacies did not!