GhostOnTheHalfShell

ChrisMayLA6, 2 days ago to random

How do you know you've been gaslighted?

when a Bank of England director tells you its 'possible' interest rates will be reduced over the summer....

Of course its possible they'll be reduced, but my guess is they'll just want to keep them high a little longer... just to make sure those pesky workers & their demands for a return to pst standards of living have been firmly dampened down.

Perhaps, by some strange co-incidence they'll fall the month before an Autumn election?

#cynicscorner

burritojustice, 10 hours ago to random

ok this seems bad https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/

GhostOnTheHalfShell, 21 hours ago to Economics

@economics@a.gup.pe

#inflation #Economics #mmt

An inflationary spiral based on expectations. It is a very different one from a deflationary one.

In the case of supply chain disruption (think floods and drought) it's a supply shock and at best businesses have to scramble to adapt (invest etc) to get around the problem. But hammering COL demand is perverse.

In all cases, messing around with interest rates is largely an exercise in futility.

🧵

https://youtu.be/eX4Sh1sq6HU?si=8NUW_83dz4sfUDtE

gerrymcgovern, 18 hours ago to random

"Generative AI is getting more advanced by the day. During the course of my reporting, I was shown deepfake videos, purportedly portraying global leaders like U.S. President Joe Biden and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, that were indistinguishable from the real thing. They included politicians allegedly speaking in multiple languages and saying things that, if true, would have ended their careers."

https://www.politico.eu/article/artificial-intelligence-elections-ballots-vote-chinsinau-seattle-policymakers-technology/

Never has there been a technology that can lie so well.

intransitivelie, 1 day ago to random

Lots of people use the Tragedy of the Commons to illustrate issues with humanity, but not only is the a Tragedy of the Commons actually just an excuse to privatize everything, but it's not as illustrative of human nature as people think. It turns out that most people don't take advantage of others (for a definition of "most" that's more or less inclusive depending on how pessimistic about human nature you feel). Plus, one bad actor doesn't automatically fuck the Commons up (not that it doesn't, just that it's not automatic). The Commons can go along just fine and rebound from selfishness with very little active effort to do so.

A better illustration, I feel, is the zipper merge. It illustrates how human nature doesn't work at scale in the modern world. Let me explain what it is if you're not familiar.

A zipper merge is when two lanes of a road go down to one lane and cars have to merge together. A true zipper happens when you're supposed to alternate merging from the left and right, but even if it's, "Lane ending, merge left," you wind up in a similar situation. And nine times out of ten, it causes a traffic jam that didn't need to happen. But in the ideal, a zipper merge alternates left and right, like teeth on a zipper, and ideally doesn't cause any slowdown.

So why is it an illustration? Well, first, the most efficient and effective way of merging two lanes of traffic is a zipper. You don't need signals of any kind, you use the entire area of road you're given, and ideally it works. We can communicate this to everyone involved and it won't make a damn bit of difference. Knowledge of the ideal's benefit won't matter.

Second, as long as density of cars remains below a critical mass, zipper merge works even when everyone doesn't do it the right way. Humans manage to muddle along just fine when we're not being expected to deal with too many others. Society works ok in small numbers. It just doesn't scale well. Like the zipper, we break at scale.

Third, one bad actor will fuck everything up in a zipper merge at scale. It's not a guarantee, but it's certainly more likely than in the Commons. One driver who refuses to let their neighbor merge will slow that lane, and may slow their own as well. At scale, the zipper merge has no defense against selfishness. You can't actively work against it as a non-selfish actor, not without making things worse.

Fourth, well-meaning drivers fuck things up too. You can be totally altruistic and slow down to allow multiple people from the other lane to merge, which in turn causes a backup in your lane. You can think ahead and get over into the lane that's not ending, or the one which seems to have the most cars, pushing that lane over the critical threshold, and also not efficiently utilizing the entire available road area. You can just have a moment of indecision which slows things down enough to raise the density. The ideal is actually somewhat lazy and selfish in a zipper merge, just not lazy or selfish enough to ruin things for everyone in the opposite direction.

Fifth, communication is key but is basically impossible. If perfect communication existed between humans, it wouldn't do away with our issues at scale, but it certainly would make us more resilient. But it isn't, just as it's impossible to talk to the person next to you in the other lane.

Lastly, no one blames the complex situation arising from the interaction of fairly simple rules for the issues that arise. Traffic is usually blamed on some identifiable thing, but traffic jams usually happen because of a confluence of a simple situation, a density of traffic, and minor actions, ones which we don't realize are causal. At a sufficient density and speed, I can create a traffic jam by touching my brake pedal. Not even slowing my car. Just signaling my intent to do something reasonable. And I will likely never know I did anything.

There's also the fact that traffic is something that only arose within the last century or so, and our monkey brains aren't capable of dealing with it. Before that, traffic was the result of too much density in an observable way, with an observable cause, at a speed which was probably slower than we can walk. We didn't need a zipper merge before cars existed. Roads weren't complex enough, traffic wasn't fast enough, and humans could correct more easily for situations that arose.

In summary, society is like traffic. At a small scale, it works. It can work even at scales which make our monkey brains, which really can't deal with more than a few dozen people at a time, shudder. But at a certain point, when the density gets too dense, or the situation too complex, or the speeds too high, we break down. Bad actors can ruin everything easily. Merely being a passive participant makes us causal to the problem. And we're just not capable of seeing that because we've had no preparation for it.

mattotcha, 1 hour ago to random

Fact Check
Warren Buffett Said 'Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share, You Won't Have to Pay Taxes Again'?
Rating: Misattributed - but read the whole article . . .
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/billionaires-taxes-warren-buffett/ #WarrenBuffett #taxes #billionares #companies

ChrisMayLA6, 17 hours ago to random

While the Bank of England's sado-monetarists keep on talking about wage inflation, its clear that there has only been wage inflation in nominal terms... real average wages (which is to say inflation adjusted) are little higher (and have been a lot lower at times) than they were when the Tories came into power in 2010.

So lets be clear: for workers this has been for the most part a lost decade & a half in wage terms.... its more than trust Rishi Sunak should have been trying to earn.

#workers

dlakelan, 15 hours ago to random

I give you civilian labor force with a disability (16yo or older)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01074597

GhostOnTheHalfShell, 12 hours ago to random

@economics@a.gup.pe

@ineteconomics

catching up a bit on INET stuff. They aren’t currently active here, but their YT channel is an absolute delight.

https://youtu.be/FQ5dLjq9SHY

GhostOnTheHalfShell, 1 hour ago to random

I wonder if Bing went down because AI is scraping it. Or if platforms are now at war with each other.

GhostOnTheHalfShell, 56 minutes ago to random

@economics@a.gup.pe
@ineteconomics

#INET

3 min

Baby bond. Not quite the same as #ubi, but much like it. Like having a wealthy uncle who writes you into his will.

https://youtu.be/06zw4ik8e34

GhostOnTheHalfShell, 53 minutes ago to climate

#climatechange #permafrost

5 min

https://youtu.be/sBFhsGAFIaw

GhostOnTheHalfShell, 12 hours ago to Economics

@economics@a.gup.pe

#economics

Let’s try to lure @ineteconomics back into active posting! They do great work!

https://youtu.be/-E--1xRydV0