peterdutoit, (edited )
@peterdutoit@mastodon.green avatar

~ The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway that we seem to be on is SSP2-4.5

What does this mean?

Near-term - ie in the next 16 years - temperatures will reach between 1.2° to 1.8°C permanently. (IPCC, very likely)

In 2024, we are already at a permanent 1.3°C and 1.5°C is imminent (projected 2030-2033)

2ºC is almost certain.

We need to figure out rather quickly what the world will look like at this threshold and prepare as best we can.

carbonwoman,
@carbonwoman@norden.social avatar

@peterdutoit

This will be difficult to do - since these calculations do not take tipping points into account.
By now we now that the risk of reaching tipping points is very high when we reach heating more than 2 degrees. We cannot say for sure, how warm it is going to get, just that it is not anymore in our hands.
We have to do everything we can to stay below 2 degree heating.

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