A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule.
A remarkable new study by a director at one of the largest accounting firms in the world has found that a famous, decades-old warning from MIT about the risk of industrial civilization collapsing appears to be accurate based on new empirical data
For the first time in 2 years, there’s no major American metro where home prices are falling, per Redfin.
Nationwide, the median sale price rose to a near-record $383,188, up 4.8% year over year. Median monthly housing payment is at a record $2,890, up 15% year over year.
63% of new audits as of Summer 2023 targeted taxpayers with income of less than $200,000, according to figures compiled by The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board
Next was an engaging session on industrial policy for innovation at the Harvard Center for International Development with Chiara Criscuolo, Munseob Lee, Barry Naughton, and Ernesto Stein. The examination of Korea's industrial policy was particularly fascinating, especially Hitachi's critical role in making Samsung the behemoth it is today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtvKfONe0bs (5/8) #economics
Next was a thought-provoking session on industrial policy for SMEs at the Harvard CID with Jie Bai, Michela Giorcelli, and Andrés Zahler. This is an often overlooked area of industrial policy, but as it's arguably the most important it was refreshing to hear it examined in detail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLaQTC7k4tw (7/8) #economics
The (centrist) Social Market Foundation asked a group of economists to look at the Labour Party's economic policies & see what theorising lies behind them (if anything).
They concluded that pragmatism & small scale/focussed policy interventions seemed to be the driving logic(s) rather than any more general economic theory or position (in this sense they lack the coherence of Biden's policy approach).
It's fitting that on a day when I was on campus I spotted a wild beaver, and while I was enjoying the wildlife I also enjoyed listening to some talks for my #AcademicRunPlaylist! (1/10)
Next was a wide-ranging talk by Marianne Bertrand on the roots of gender disparities at work at the LSE. Bertrand systematically reviews the literature in this area, consistently pointing to the role of childcare and gender norms around unpaid labor as the source of most of the remaining gap here. FYI Bertrand gave a talk at the Toulouse School of Economics on a similar topic a few years later that is also great. Highly recommend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWpBM0ASLRQ (4/10) #economics#gender
Millennials are buying homes with friends by Tom Jones 5/17/24
"...A larger share of millennial homeowners have teamed up with friends...to purchase homes — a trend that housing experts predict will continue amid affordability issues in the housing market and the growing number of single Americans. Ten percent of millennial homeowners have purchased a home with a friend, and 7 percent have bought one with a relative other than their domestic partner or spouse.
...“Affordability is probably the key reason to do that, as well as the types of homes that are available for sale,” Dr. Lautz says. “We traditionally have seen that the most popular type of home purchased is a detached single-family home because that’s the type of inventory that we have in the country. That allows enough space for two people to live independently within that property.”
A new and silent land grab is underway – we must stop it - By Ian Scoones, Angela Serrano, originally published by Open Democracy May 20, 2024
“For us peasants, land is not just an investment or something we own, but is part of our lives and our existence”, said...the Network of Farmers’ Organisations & Agricultural Producers of West Africa at a meeting co-convened by the Land Deal Politics Initiative...and activists concerned about the rise of land, water and green grabs.
...Participants of the meeting agreed that policy debates on land have...been stuck in the hallowed halls of the UN or government bureaucracies, where they are captured by market demands, such as offsetting. The subsequent ‘solutions’ then end up incompatible with local livelihoods, failing to consider food-provisioning, as well as people’s cultures, histories and intimate connections with nature..."
An inflationary spiral based on expectations. It is a very different one from a deflationary one.
In the case of supply chain disruption (think floods and drought) it's a supply shock and at best businesses have to scramble to adapt (invest etc) to get around the problem. But hammering COL demand is perverse.
In all cases, messing around with interest rates is largely an exercise in futility.
Elsewhere the arrival of the Taylor Swift tour has prompted discussion (expectations) of how the tour ticket sales & other expenditure will prompt a focussed economic boomlet....
In the UK, predictions are focussed on the likely expansion of ticketing fraud.
As Rachel Reeves stresses the link between international relations & economics... for those of us who've been (in my case) or still are International Political Economists, this is all very much what we've been talking about for decades.
So, for those of you wondering how that might work, one great book that brings a lot of the things Reeves is talking about together is: