By deepening economic relations with both #China and #Russia, #Orbán hopes to give #Hungary an oversized say in global decision-making. And his “friendship” with #Putin is feeding the ever-growing clientelism within his government and funding his cronies.
For example, while other European countries have been downgrading the size of their staff at Russian embassies and consulates, staff numbers at the Russian Embassy in Budapest are on the rise.
After a sobering trip to #Kyiv, Secy of State Antony J. #Blinken is urging #POTUS#Biden to lift some restrictions on how Ukraine can use American arms.
Since the 1st US shipments of sophisticated weapons to #Ukraine, #POTUS#Biden has never wavered on 1 prohibition: President #Zelensky had to agree to never fire them into Russian territory, insisting that would violate Biden’s mandate to “avoid World War III.”
But consensus around that policy is fraying. Propelled by the State Dept, there is now a vigorous debate inside the admin over relaxing the ban to allow Ukrainians to hit missile & artillery launch sites just over the border in #Russia….
Threatening Russia’s control of Crimea—and inflicting grave damage to its economy and society—will, of course, be difficult. But it is a more realistic strategy than the proposed alternative: a negotiated settlement while Putin is in office.
Putin has never agreed to respect Ukrainian sovereignty—and never will. If anything, Russia’s rhetoric about the war has become more annihilationist, invoking the Russian Orthodox Church and suggesting that the conflict is something like a holy war, with existential consequences.
Any negotiation in the current circumstances would at best leave Ukraine crippled, partitioned, and at the mercy of a second Russian invasion. At worst, it would eliminate the country altogether.
No sustainable, long-term peace can emerge from negotiations with an aggressor that has genocidal intent.
Ukraine and the West must either win or face devastating consequences.
(EXACTLY!)
The fact that Ukraine and its partners lack a strategy for victory, three years into the war, is a serious problem.
Without an end in mind, leaders in Kyiv, Washington, and Brussels are making key decisions on an incremental and ultimately incoherent basis. Ukraine may achieve local successes, but not a comprehensive defeat of the enemy; for their part, Kyiv’s Western partners tend to think only about the next tranche of supplies.
And without a strategic picture, it will be difficult to sustain morale and the will to fight in Ukraine and beyond.
#UK defence minister says British intelligence have evidence that #China is providing or preparing to provide lethal aid for Russia to deploy against #Ukraine.