We do understand the #globalwarming caused by fossil fuels - for four decades it’s been going as predicted.
But we don’t understand the surprise upward leap that is happening now.
And that worries me.
On some weather channel I heard that recent underwater volcano added water vapor not sulfur to stratosphere (leading to warming as opposed to usual volcano cooling) and Hansen also suspects reductions in aerosols (China, shipping) to be a factor in addition to not even very strong El Nino. Are there papers which support this? I am looking for factual reasons to be calmer regarding feedbacks (early permafrost melting, or even methane hydrates, etc) http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/ElNinoFizzles.13October2023.pdf
@rahmstorf if you disregard the last 6 years or so, the last point looks totally in line with the rest (assuming exponential growth). What happened the last 6 years?
Using R's decompose() function (just exploring it the first time), the certain september 2023 data does look less spectacular. This might calm down from panic mode.
Nevertheless the trend part looks bad enough...
...that's enough to be concerned anyway.
@rahmstorf Lots of variables at play, but I think the biggest cause of this rate increase is the failure of the ocean to continue its absorption and filtering of the effects. Pumping carbon into the air at insane amounts would have had this dramatic rise visible earlier had we not had the oceans to buffer the jump for decades or centuries.
No its easy. The earth had million Times before kind of Code initialise to make the system more hot. Its needed to speed up evolution and deconstruction if something was a mistake, like a reset. So we see everything works fine. Just not for Humas after we pushed the restart button. The 4 decates... the ocean backup tipping point run out of memory to store carbon and many other tipping points will fail in future if we do not enough. Hate to say but cubes are set.
There is a terrible lack of science and clarity and public understanding. Also the Pope himself declared the efforts of the world are too little and too slow.
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