randahl,
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

Is it a good idea for Ukraine to bomb Russian oil refineries?

@anderspuck has a new analysis, with excellent pionts including this one:

“The Americans have to learn, that if you are not actually providing weapons to help another country win a war, you also do not get a say in how they fight the war.”

Spot on!

https://youtu.be/jWMUHKrm7xY?si=zeI2rEPvzOzmaa-2

lin11c,
@lin11c@toad.social avatar

@randahl @anderspuck
I just found out today that the USA has not supplied one patriot battery although they have 50. This is nonsensical to me. I am going to do what I can to demand action, although I have zero power. 😥

codebyjeff,
@codebyjeff@hachyderm.io avatar

@randahl @anderspuck

It is obvious to everyone that there is the administration, trying to be as helpful as possible & steer things down one road

and a different set of "Americans" trying to derail those efforts

It is perfectly reasonable to say, "Please don't mess our long-term efforts while we are trying to deal with this other group"

Another excellent explanation by Anders, but that particular statement is very short-sighted (and not the main point he was actually arguing)

anderspuck,
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

@codebyjeff @randahl Thanks. I don’t think it’s a reasonable thing to ask, though. The Biden administration also has to acknowledge that they can’t promise to win the election and take back Congress, and that in the meantime Ukraine has to pursue some strategy that can plausibly lead to victory. It’s not fair to ask them to wait another year and see what happens.

codebyjeff,
@codebyjeff@hachyderm.io avatar

@anderspuck @randahl Yes, I agree with you. I don't think it's even a good ask or strategy (worrying about gas prices)

I took issue more with the idea that, despite everything the US has done up until now, the moment it can't send missiles because of political issues, it no longer gets to ask for anything

The US has been a critical friend & will continue to be for the future

Democrats are spending a lot of political capital to try to get the aid flowing they could be putting elsewhere

anderspuck,
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

@codebyjeff @randahl I think the Biden administration has generally overestimated the ability of the US to control what happens in foreign wars. First in the way they delivered weapons to Ukraine, where escalation management seemed to be the goal rather than equipping Ukraine to win. And now in this discussion about oil refineries.
I found Phillips o'Brien and Mykola Byleskov's discussion about it interesting in this podcast.

https://pca.st/episode/6b7ad295-3f6d-4d6d-926a-340bc178d24d

xs4me2,
@xs4me2@mastodon.social avatar

@randahl @anderspuck

Exactly this…

CivilityFan,
@CivilityFan@sfba.social avatar

@randahl
It’s not like we Americans get much say in the use of weapons we are providing either. Just look at Netanyahu thumbing his nose at us.

@anderspuck

anderspuck,
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

@CivilityFan @randahl I think U.S. could persuade Ukraine to stop this in exchange for 60 billion dollars worth of weapons.

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