...balance of power was not in their favor. 👉The Arab states were too weak to
confront #Israel when it inevitably attacked them👈, rather than the #Palestinian insurgents, in response to Palestinian attacks. So it was, and remains, 👉smarter to keep the insurgency within the borders of Mandatory Palestine. That requires keeping the Palestinians where they are."👈
...in which #Arab leaders have accepted their weakness in material and military affairs and sought to normalize with a much more powerful, Western-backed #Israel.
By contrast, the #Iranians, #Hamas, #Hezbollah, the #Houthis and others chose a more religiously-sound approach. They accepted that the #US could overwhelm them with high-tech “shock and awe” aerial attacks. 👉They chose to focus instead on delivering...
...decisive blows that show that some key aspect of the enemy’s power, some Goliath, such as the air force, is in fact impotent."👈
"👉#Iran and its allies, by contrast, regularly show that they can keep fighting and landing decisive blows.👈 They, like the #Arab peoples led by #America’s allies, 👉are religiously committed to destroying #Israel.👈
As such, 👉helping the Israelis win by taking in #Palestinian refugees, whom the ...
...#Arabs know #Israel would never allow back, is not in the interests of #Arab leaders.👈
Rather, their best bet is to stay on #America’s good side rhetorically and commercially, but 👉to quietly improve their ties with Iran and other #US enemies, and prepare to end their normalization with Israel.👈
The balance of power, which previously forced the #Arab states to avoid fighting Israel and antagonizing the U.S., has shifted. 👉Now the balance of power dictates that the #Arabs prevent #Israel from winning and avoid antagonizing #Iran and their own publics.👈
But the balance of power has not shifted enough for #Arab leaders to disengage from the U.S.,...
Continuing this train of thought, however, this leaves only dire outcomes for the #Israelis and the #Palestinians:
If no #Muslim country will grant them refuge for political reasons, a lot of the #Gazan#refugees will die on that border wall...
...There will never be peace in #Palestine, not even if there were a #TwoStateSolution, placating the #Palastinian population, neither the #Sunni, nor rhe #Shia neighboring countries will stop their hostilities until the whole of the #Israeli state is eradicated from the map.
If #Trump should at last really get his second term as president, the global balance of power will further shift even further towards #America's antagonists...
...👉A further weakening of #US influence in the Middle East will become inevitable. #Israel, which even now cries out for #US military aid, fighting a non-state, will not have the #US backing anymore.
It is a cruel irony of fate that right now, the strategic interests of the #Palestinian and #Israeli people converge:
The #Palestinians are literally standing with their backs against the wall and do need a solution NOW.
The #Israeli...
...are in a position of probably maximum historic strength.
So, right now would be the time for both to negotiate.
Alas, the leaders of the two peoples are arguably the worst combination in decades: their chief (only?) aim is to remain in power.
So, we have two peoples, and two groups of leaders, whose aims are or should be aligned, but whose, likewise aligned, leaders make a solution impossible.
A cataclysmic irony of fate.
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