@carnage4life@mas.to
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carnage4life

@carnage4life@mas.to

Opinions about product management, technology news and inclusivity in tech. Diversity is about demographics, inclusion is about creating a sense of belonging.

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carnage4life, to random
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This is nuts to me. I’d never have predicted this outcome if asked on any day of the past twenty years.

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carnage4life, to random
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A thing I find interesting is how company cultures affect their success over time. An example is how Google famously has a bias for inaction.

The combination of lack of pressure on individuals to generate business results (OKRs) and being consensus driven which broke down at scale means doing nothing is the path of least resistance.

The search monopoly is also so entrenched that making product changes are more likely to be neutral to negative (see AI overviews) than be helpful. So why bother?

carnage4life, to random
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There is now an official date and time for my talk at Figma Config. 12:40PM - 1:00PM on June 27th.

I should be done with the final draft this weekend. My only concern is my slides seem too bland and text heavy for an audience of designers. 😭

https://config.figma.com/agenda/session?session_id=b0f537636365&lang=en

carnage4life, to random
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I’ve lost hundreds of followers on Twitter this week writing about the potential and impact of LLMs on people and businesses.

No idea if people are bored with the topic or my takes were just that bad.😁

Either way I think LLMs are disruptive and the question is just how disruptive not if.

carnage4life, to random
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OpenAI doing a content deal with News Corp is expected at this point as every major news site has erected a paywall.

That said it’s amusing to see OpenAI talk about “supporting the highest journalistic standards” when describing their deal to getting access to The New York Post and Thd Sun for use in ChatGPT.

https://openai.com/index/news-corp-and-openai-sign-landmark-multi-year-global-partnership/

carnage4life, to random
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I sometimes wonder if LLMs are this generation’s self driving cars? A decade ago self driving cars were so promising it was assumed they were 90% of the way to being ubiquitous. But now it looks like the last 10% of the work is taking 90% of the time.

LLMs work well 90% of the time. The question is how hard will it be to address that last 10%?

carnage4life, to random
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Despite believing Google had no choice but to go all in on AI overviews in Search, I have to admit these answers are really kicking their butt.

carnage4life, to random
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How it started vs. How it’s going

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carnage4life, to random
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$60 million well spent licensing that Reddit data for AI use.

carnage4life, to random
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The order of events here is supposedly that they hired a voice actor to create “Sky” in the style of Her. Later the CEO thinks why not go with the OG instead of a knock off.

Scarlett Johansson says no, so they ship their original plan but now look bad.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/05/22/openai-scarlett-johansson-chatgpt-ai-voice/

carnage4life, to random
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The huge potential of AI is being able to feed it all the documents about your business and ask it questions. It is truly a game changer to be able to ask questions about prior decisions or product specs as trivially as if it were a SQL query.

The problem is hallucinations.

Without addressing hallucinations, generative AI can help where accuracy is not a requirement like content generation from art to entertainment but it will fail to meet expectations of businesses spending billions on it.

carnage4life,
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Getting the wrong answer for “what were our sales numbers last year?” is an unforgivable sin in this scenario.

carnage4life, to random
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How it started versus How it's going

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carnage4life, to random
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"It's not Scarlett Johansson's voice. IT'S A VOICE ACTRESS THEY CAN'T NAME FOR PRIVACY REASONS"

carnage4life, to random
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Amazon plans to charge a fee for future versions of Alexa to offset the cost of LLM features. The pressure from ChatGPT is immense.

But how long this business model can last when Google is going to provide LLM features for free as part of search and Google Assistant?

carnage4life, to random
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I think crypto broke people’s brains. There was a clearly useless technology being hyped by pundits, VCs and tech companies which turned out as worthless as we all thought.

So there’s now a gut reaction to treating any hyped technology as a scam. The trend is similar to how after the dotcom crash, pundits proclaimed every year that we were in a bubble for almost two decades while big tech started generating hundreds of billions in revenue.

AI is the same. It’s hyped but there’s also substance.

carnage4life, to random
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The background hum of layoffs in both tech and tech adjacent fields continues unabated.

14% of Pixar losing their jobs is rough especially as this will be blamed on Disney’s overhiring to chase after Netflix. TikTok is a continuation of big tech’s inability to cut once & deep.

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carnage4life, to random
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Humane trying to find a buyer for its business after the disastrous AI pin launch is unsurprising.

Expecting $750M to $1 billion for it is downright hilarious.

carnage4life, to random
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One of the most important mental prisons for people to free themselves from is the prison of other people’s opinions.

carnage4life, to random
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I can’t help but notice the parallels between my generation of techies thinking copyright was bad when it came to music, movies and apps which should all be free and today’s techies who feel that way about IP used to train LLMs.

What changed is that streaming and ad supported apps became more convenient than piracy.

I wonder if there’s a similar analog to say cloning an actor’s voice being more convenient to do while respecting copyright versus illicitly.

carnage4life, to random
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It’s interesting to see different cultural norms evolving around AI and deepfakes. In the US, we are constantly reading about how deepfakes are a threat to democracy while in India politicians use them for everything from making candidates multilingual to composing campaign songs

The use of AI in elections reminds me of social media and elections. There are positive stories that counter the negative ones and vice versa. Social media gave us AOC but it also gave us Trump

https://www.wired.com/story/indian-elections-ai-deepfakes/

carnage4life, to random
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There’s long been a notion of two internets when it comes to China and the rest of the world where super apps like WeChat reign while Google is non-existent.

It’s now the inverse where products like EVs and smartphones are barred from the US which are competitive with US ones. And these products are giving the American ones a run for their money.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-slashes-iphone-prices-china-amid-fierce-huawei-competition-2024-05-20/

carnage4life, to random
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Google has preemptively paid an antitrust fine in its case with the DOJ in an attempt to avoid a trial. If this works, it changes everything.

Next time the DOJ or FTC comes knocking just ask, "how much do I owe you?" https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/google-cuts-mystery-check-us-bid-sidestep-jury-trial-2024-05-20/

carnage4life, to random
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Hey, does that ChatGPT 4o voice sound familiar?

OpenAI:

carnage4life, to random
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One of the reasons I don’t believe in fears of catastrophic mass unemployment due to AI is that it ever seemed likely, governments would just ban it.

We live in a world where Biden effectively banned Chinese EVs to protect Ford/GM/Tesla jobs. No government would let AI do worse.

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