crypticvalentine, to random
@crypticvalentine@mastodon.social avatar

Michael Heseltine has warned that the 2024 general election campaign “will be the most dishonest in modern times” because of the refusal of the main parties to debate the consequences of Brexit....... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-heseltine-brexit-eu-general-election-b2551718.html

paul_denton, to random French
@paul_denton@mastodon.social avatar

Edouard Philippe s'attire la foudre de Jupiter en critiquant ses appels au débat avec Marine Le Pen: "C’est… surprenant", a lâché l'ex-Premier ministre sur LCI. "Macron peut bien se fâcher, Edouard a raison de prendre du champ de ce désastre", le défend un soutien. Il faut dire que le niveau de haine du président envers le maire du Havre est connu, lui qui le traite régulièrement de "connard"

sreedevkkumar, to india
@sreedevkkumar@journa.host avatar

The BJP and BJD, who were allies once, are now locked in a bitter contest for the 21 Parliamentary constituencies and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha. What are the factors driving the Odisha contest? Can the BJP edge past the BJD in the state? Today's Number Theory answer these questions in detail.

Link to read on HT app: https://www.hindustantimes.com/editors-pick/number-theory-can-bjp-edge-past-bjd-in-bitter-odisha-contest-101716783051542.html

@mastodonindians

What led to the BJP’s rise in Odisha? The intuitive answer is that it has usurped the Congress’s support base. The Congress and BJP vote shares were 32.7% and 16.9% in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Odisha. These numbers changed to 13.8% and 38.4% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, a careful analysis suggests that the actual dynamics in the state could be more complicated. Out of the 6 PCs that the Congress won in 2009, 5 were won by the BJD in 2014 and only 1 by the BJP. Similarly, out of the 27 ACs won by the Congress in 2009, 18 went to the BJD and just two to the BJP in 2014. The BJP won eight PCs in 2019, and out of this, seven were won by the BJD in 2014. The Congress did not win any PCs in 2014. Out of the 23 ACs that the BJP won in 2019, as many as 18 were previously won by the BJD. This suggests that the BJD has taken away the traditional support of the Congress before 2019 and now the BJP is wresting back some of it from the BJP. A region-wise analysis supports this theory. 4 out of the 6 PCs won by the Congress in 2009 came from Western Odisha. The Congress first lost ground to the BJD in this region in 2014. But by 2019, the BJD ceded a lot of space to the BJP in this part of the state. Although, the BJD was able to become the single largest party in the state assembly from Western Odisha in 2019, it had to field the party supremo Naveen Patnaik from an AC in the region for the first time in his political journey to ensure popular support.
Has the BJD regained some of its lost ground after 2019? While the BJP saw a significant increase in its seat share and vote share in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Odisha in 2019, the BJD might have, at least to some extent, been able to rein in the BJP's rising popularity in the state since. The biggest evidence for this comes from the rural local body polls held in the state in 2022. Out of the 853 Zilla Parishad seats (ZP) in the state, the BJD won 767 in 2022, bringing its ZP seat share to 89.92%. In the previous rural local body election in 2017, the BJD's ZP seat share stood at 56.07%. In comparison, the BJP's ZP seat share fell from 35% in 2017 to 4.9% in 2022. Even within Western Odisha, the BJD's seat share rose from 25.5% to 86.5%, while that of the BJP fell from 61.5% to 9.3%. whether or not the BJP can buck this local level trend in a national and state election will be known on June 4.

sreedevkkumar,
@sreedevkkumar@journa.host avatar

@mastodonindians
If you are not on phone or would rather read this story through your browser, you may use the e-paper version: https://epaper.hindustantimes.com/Home/ShareArticle?OrgId=275e4663c47&imageview=0

br00t4c, to random
@br00t4c@mastodon.social avatar
br00t4c, to random
@br00t4c@mastodon.social avatar
alexf24, to random
@alexf24@mstdn.social avatar

Atlas, Thugged
Trump Versus The Libertarians.

RICK WILSON
MAY 26, 2024

Someone is getting fired over this one.

Last night, Donald Trump had one of the most hilariously terrible speeches in front or one of the most hostile audiences I’ve ever seen....

https://substack.com/inbox/post/144992080

remixtures, to uk Portuguese
@remixtures@tldr.nettime.org avatar

The odds of the UK recovering the position it had before Brexit are extremely low, I think. Even Brazil is better positioned to recover what it lost in the last 10 years...

: "The British prime minister called a general election for July 4, and like Biden he is weighed down by deep public pessimism over the economy. But unlike Biden, Sunak can’t claim that pessimism is disconnected from hard data.

Britain has had one of the worst performances of major economies since the pandemic broke out in 2020, with lower growth, higher inflation and weaker investment than its peers.

Blame bad luck, and bad choices. Some of those choices fall at the feet of the Tories, in particular the decision to leave the European Union. But that doesn’t mean Labour, which might form the next government, will do better. And in that lie lessons for the rest of the world: whatever the flaws of globalization, turning your back on it can be costly, and difficult to undo.
(...)
Between early 2016 and the end of 2023, British investment fell 17% relative to other developed economies, according to J.P. Morgan. Half of that can be plausibly tied to the administrative barriers and uncertainty brought on by Brexit. A study co-written by Jonathan Haskel, a policymaker at the Bank of England, put investment in the U.K. 10% lower in 2022 than if the pre-2016 trend had persisted."

https://www.wsj.com/economy/britain-to-world-dont-let-what-happened-to-us-happen-to-you-09d24e5c

br00t4c, to random
@br00t4c@mastodon.social avatar
paul_denton, to random French
@paul_denton@mastodon.social avatar

Marine Le Pen répond à Macron: "Je ne viens pas quand on me siffle" et pose comme condition à un débat la "démission ou la dissolution de l’Assemblée en cas d’échec" aux Européennes, répond la cheffe des députés RN au Parisien. Des scénarios qui ne sont plus si fous, rappelez-vous je les ai déjà évoqué. Pas de majorité, un désaveu massif, une absence de collaborateurs (essorés ou partis à l'opposition...).

parigotmanchot,
@parigotmanchot@mastodon.social avatar

@paul_denton Quitte à l'avoir comme présidente en 2027, autant commencer maintenant 😆.

paul_denton, to random French
@paul_denton@mastodon.social avatar

Macron se dit « prêt à débattre maintenant avec Marine Le Pen » avant les élections Européennes le 9 juin dans un entretien avec Le Parisien. Le président veut rejouer 2017. Mais les Français sont-ils prêts à l’écouter après 7 ans de pouvoir?

jpp45,
@jpp45@piaille.fr avatar

@paul_denton
les Français? C'est qui les Français?

parigotmanchot,
@parigotmanchot@mastodon.social avatar

@LeoElRojo @paul_denton Pour faire quoi ? On connaît le résultat et honnêtement, intellectuellement parlant, je ne vois pas l'intérêt.
Macron est trop inculte et politiquement parlant... no comment.

SteveThompson, to politics
@SteveThompson@mastodon.social avatar

"Here Come the Russians, Again"

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/05/here-come-the-russians-again/

"The director of national intelligence recently warned that Russia remains 'the most active foreign threat to our elections.'”

_ohcoco_, to oregon
@_ohcoco_@mastodon.social avatar
argv_minus_one,
@argv_minus_one@mstdn.party avatar

@_ohcoco_

Evidently they didn't give these criminals a long enough prison sentence.

_ohcoco_,
@_ohcoco_@mastodon.social avatar

@argv_minus_one And Ammon is doing his own thing in Idaho now. They're very active in the PNW 😐

VCDeV, to Bulgaria German
@VCDeV@mstdn.social avatar

Die CDU startet eine Kampagne gegen das Verbrenner-Aus auf EU-Ebene. Übrigens nur wenige Tage nach dem Start einer ähnlichen Kampagne von Le Pens Rassemblement National. Auf der folgenden Seite können wir der CDU mitteilen, dass der Verbrenner verschwinden muss: https://aktion.cdu.de/ja-zum-auto

Denn: Wenn schon Auto, dann muss es elektrisch mit erneuerbaren Energien angetrieben werden!

sreedevkkumar, to india
@sreedevkkumar@journa.host avatar
grivettcarnac, to Canada
@grivettcarnac@mstdn.social avatar

Dropping a random prediction: Trudeau will resign as Liberal leader this summer. Do I have any specific reasons for this? No. I’m a politically connected nobody. But he can stay on and lose to Pierre, even though he wants a no-gloves campaign against him, but why be another Harper, who knew he had no chance in 2015? I think walking away would be a clutch move for him and take all the wind out of “vote for us because Trudeau is the reason for X, Y, Z” #cdnpoli #canada #elections

Auxonic,
@Auxonic@mastodon.social avatar

@human3500 @grivettcarnac from what I hear everyone sane is getting out and political staffers are reduced to ideologue teenagers who don’t care if they lose. Party seems intent on running into the ground and hoping for a quick rebound from PP.. I don’t think they understand what four years of fascist majority will do to even Liberals

dan613,
@dan613@ottawa.place avatar

@grivettcarnac I don't see who would do better. Remember that most Canadians aren't politically active, and Trudeau has done very little campaigning. He does very well at town halls, even though conservatives are allowed to ask questions. Many thought he beat Harper in the debates, and Poilievre is no Harper.

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