@t_mkdf@ruhr.social
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

t_mkdf

@t_mkdf@ruhr.social

Parenting and Pedaling
Rugby and Radicchio
Washing and Warmachines
Climate change and unclear exchange
Cold war kid
Giggling Cardbox
Master of pillow forts
Calculated mediocrity

Somewhere on the fringes of the lowlands and industrial wastes of western germany

IP law in automotive

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. Browse more on the original instance.

mike, to random
@mike@flipboard.com avatar

The big problem with Tesla that this article misses completely is that many of Tesla's most enthusiastic customers (like I once was) no longer want to support a person who is actively promoting hateful conspiracy theories and providing nazis and Russians with a platform to disrupt the upcoming U.S. election.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/05/chaos-at-tesla-what-analysts-think-about-elon-musks-cuts-and-layoffs/?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub

Posted into AC/DC AI @ac

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@mike @ac I would say it's priced in with the decline in market share... Which will only accelerate outside the US with the emergence of BYD and other Chinese EV manufacturers.

The European commission might establish tariffs for these Chinese manufacturers (akin to the US). But in order to be effective these might need to be as high as 55%. Which a) is unrealistic and b) shows how cheap EVs might become in the next few years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/chinese-ev-imports-europe-might-need-to-impose-up-to-55percent-in-tariffs-.html

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@etchedpixels @mike @ac Hungary according to BYD

https://www.byd.com/eu/news-list/BYD_to_Build_A_New_Energy_Passenger_Vehicle_Factory_in_Hungary_for_Localised_Production_in_Europe.html

anderspuck, to random
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

Now that Ukraine's shortage of weapons and ammunition is about to get solved, there is increased attention on the two other big problems on the frontline: Lack of fortifications and a manpower deficit.

In this edition of the Logic of War newsletter I discuss these two problems. Since I won't be publishing a regular video on YouTube this week, I decided to make access free for all on this one. https://www.logicofwar.com/ukranies-three-big-problems/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck lack of fortifications reminds me also of the French in WWI. They saw the trenches as temporary and didn't want to admit to the public that they would need them for a long time.

Also as far as I know the Ukrainian army expected -at least until the fortification program - their troops to dig and maintain their own trenches. Whilst the russians have their own detachments for it.

randahl, to random
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

Several of you have asked, why half the Republican party has voted for Ukraine aid today, if the party is against it.

The truth is, many republicans have wanted this aid for months — even Mike Johnson was for it in the beginning.

But Trump wanted Biden’s Ukraine agenda to fail, and very few Republicans dare to go against the tzar, because if they do, Trump will immediately endorse another political candidate in their home district.

But what turned this around was security briefings…

1/2

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck @randahl Johnson probably has just waited for the right moment.

His goal is neither a russian win nor a Ukrainian win. Or an American win.

His goal is control over the republican party. A Johnson win.

He has used every measure to make MAGA irrelevant and improve his position. Step by step.

anderspuck, to Russia
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

This week, both Blinken and Stoltenberg reiterated the notion that has already lost in because they failed to achieve their original goals.
This is the kind of dangerous narrative that I talk about in this video. We have to stop talking about the war in terms where it sounds like Ukraine has already won.
https://youtu.be/-8ZPbnVqHrY

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck russia cannot win if we keep supporting Ukraine.

But once we stop, they can. Especially since stopping the aid would lead to cracks in the Western alliances.

E.g. why would and should Europe support the US on China if the US doesn't support us on russia? Would the US come to Poland's aid? Would Germany muster the will to oppose russia in the Baltics without American support?

anderspuck, to random
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

No country should buy Swiss weapons before they change this policy. The ability to transfer weapons to each other in times of need has proven to be a strategic requirement.
https://mastodon.social/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck especially no NATO country.

At least one can reliably not rely on Swiss arms in time of need.

t_mkdf, to random
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

I just finished the last two YT videos with @anderspuck

Really great analysis by him and Perun.

What I might add to the "Kofman" debate about Bakhmut is that the degradation of PMC Wagner really played nicely (though probably not directly intended) into the Ukrainian strategy of destabilising russia.

Without PMC Wagner's degradation the mutiny probably wouldn't have happened.

https://youtu.be/rNw4wkkibso

https://youtu.be/7rBlVnc_DEw

anderspuck, to random
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

I see a large number of people saying that Russian anti-war presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin is a Kremlin asset to legitimate Putin’s reelection. That is not the case. They allowed him to collect signatures for that reason but his campaign has gained much more traction than they are comfortable with.

From: @meduza_en
https://masto.ai/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck @meduza_en Vlad Vexler talked about him and the fact that he might cause some inconvenience too.

I am astonished and that there wasn't some bureaucratic intervention yet.

https://youtu.be/xYPqLUKKtsY?si=FFATfxOSiQFfKoht

anderspuck, to random
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

"They need to do what’s called income mobilization,” she said. "And increasing taxation is part of this.”

From: @thejapantimes
https://mastodon.social/@thejapantimes/112346537715763236

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck @thejapantimes "No one knows Putin’s projections” for the war, said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. "There are rumors and anticipation of an upcoming Russian escalation. They don’t have a crystal ball, that’s why they want to have this money now.”

t_mkdf, to random
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

A new video by @anderspuck

This time about the rationale behind the russian human wave attacks.

This video highlights to me one core problem of war studies and IR: we (and e.g. russia) only have imperfect assessments on the thought process and values of our opposition.

What makes sense to us doesn't need to make sense to them. And the larger this discrepancy the larger the room for misunderstandings and errors.

E.g. we thought they would freeze the conflict...

https://youtu.be/-8ZPbnVqHrY?si=MrbDVptiIrf9Jy7s

kravietz, to Germany
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

Three citizens were arrested on suspicion of having worked as foreign agents for Ministry of State Security with goal of forming research partnerships with German universities and collect information useful from military and economic point of view.

https://www.generalbundesanwalt.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2024/Pressemitteilung-vom-22-04-2024.html?nn=478184 (in German)

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz and one of them is working for the far-right frontrunner for the European Parliament Maximilian .

Who is very successful on Tik-Tok btw.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/spionage-china-afd-100.html

randahl, to random
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

Putin thinks he is playing 4D chess, when in reality he is predictable like a 4-year-old who stole the cookies.

Trump's position on Ukraine and NATO is exactly what Putin wants. But by Trump revealing his hand, accidentally admitting he wants Russia to do "whatever the hell they want" to NATO countries, Putin fears American voters will not elect his favorite presidential candidate, Trump.

So what does he communicate? Ah yes… of course:

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@randahl in the end he probably doesn't care. But he wants all the divisiveness he can get.

t_mkdf, to random German
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

Game of Thrones, russian MoD version (a long read).

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-30-2023

t_mkdf, to Ukraine
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

In view of botched reforms in procurement it is only logical (and has a broad support) to allocate more funding towards Ukraine directly...

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-krieg-deutschland-militaerhilfe-nato-100.html?at_medium=mastodon&at_campaign=tagesschau.de

t_mkdf, to random
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

German foreign minister AL Baerbock in The Guardian:

"Russia’s war of aggression has marked a rupture in the world. For my country, it has opened a new chapter, redefining how we seek to promote peace, freedom and sustainability in this world: as a partner that embraces its leadership."

My impression is that Germany is moving into this direction. Albeit with the dynamic of a big tanker.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2023/jul/06/russia-war-ukraine-germany-foreign-policy?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Coffeebean, to random Danish

@anderspuck @VikingChieftain

Ben Hodges

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67760067?s=09

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@VikingChieftain @Coffeebean @anderspuck the main point of US support is abundance of surplus equipment.

They can even save money by sending their old, good enough stuff to Ukraine...

kravietz, to random
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

Soviet double agent Anthony Blunt may have helped Hitler too

In 1979 the art historian was outed as one of the Cambridge spies recruited by Stalin. Shocking new evidence suggests he may also have passed deadly secrets to the Nazis, Robert Verkaik reports

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/392db86e-7d65-4c5d-b2a9-b781d5ee7250

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz @Loukas There are many myths about a betrayal of the plans for Market Garden.

But they all have been debunked.

And the western Allies, especially the US, simply didn't think Berlin was worth it since it would be divided in surrounded by the Soviet occupation zone anyway.

Their price was the Ruhr (which was also the main reason for Market Garden).

kravietz, to Germany
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

In debate escalates about whether the phase-out was justified granted its consequences for German economy that are becoming evident now. In the new turn, it is being suggested that the minister of economy Habeck was lied to by his own experts who claimed the phase-out is going to be harmless.^1

At this stage I can only reiterate that since 2011 when the plans were announced hundreds of worldwide climate experts appealed to Germany not to phase-out nuclear, which is one of the few low-carbon and dispatchable sources of energy. Climate scientist James Hansen had been calling German phase-out a “climate crime” and in 2019 hundreds of scientists wrote an open letter to German government asking to reconsider.^2

As I wrote a few years ago, the whole phase-out plan was plagued by cognitive biases, falsified data and excessive optimism about “prospective technologies of future”. The biggest blame however goes to “environmental activists” such as and who were absolutely knowingly and cynically lying about both evils of nuclear and benefits of , convincing many people and pushing the government towards the current failure.^3

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz whilst I partially share your critique on the phase out of nuclear power in Germany, I would like to point out that the reporting is a big nothing burger based on unfaithful reporting of the right wing news outlet Cicero (which is quite close to the AfD). Which apparently could not be bothered with checking the sources

Just culture war fuel.

https://www.volksverpetzer.de/faktencheck/habeck-rechte-pseudo-skandal-akw-files/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz Cicero is far right. And Die Welt stopped being mainstream conservative some time ago.

It's simply a culture war issue. It is safe to say that every reporting on this topic from Germany has to be viewed through this lens.

j2bryson, to random
@j2bryson@mastodon.social avatar

This really seems underreported, presumably because it’s a Russian assault on NATO infrastructure, and no one wants to admit we’re at war?

Russia accused of GPS jamming after aircraft disrupted

Finnair suspended flights to the Estonian city of Tartu after GPS signal interference prevented two planes from landing. Estonia and Lithuania have blamed Russia for jamming GPS signals in the region.
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-accused-of-gps-jamming-after-aircraft-disrupted/a-68964307?

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz @j2bryson @vfrmedia self deterrence.

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz @j2bryson @vfrmedia for western Europe it's also hybris, over reliance on economic ties. And in view of Germany guilt and forgiveness.

And tbh russia just wasn't important enough and seen as an ally against Islamism.

kevinrothrock, to random

Only $300 million. (I can imagine people reading this and being aghast for very different reasons.)

image/jpeg

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck @sarahbeck @notsoloud @kevinrothrock Just a short refresher on the topic of US alliances and how the US profits from them:

https://youtu.be/eUL8EvZkfEY?si=PHAi6-UcUXk5-bl0

anderspuck, to random
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

If the U.S. will play a smaller role in European security going forward, we need to have a conversation about nuclear weapons. The current UK and French arsenals are not sufficient to deter Russia, but the big question is if the solution is to grow their stockpiles, or if more countries need to join the nuclear club.

(The fact that this is now a discussion just goes to show the shortsightedness of American isolationalism.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@martinvermeer @sarahbeck @anderspuck @notsoloud @shved e.g. German! Social democratic! Minister of defence is calling for the disbandment of the 2% spending goal... Germany (and European members of NATO) should aim significantly above 2% of GDP in his opinion...

SheDrivesMobility, to random German
@SheDrivesMobility@norden.social avatar

deleted_by_author

    •
    t_mkdf,
    @t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

    @SheDrivesMobility Lars, wann endlich Verbotsverfahren?

    Loukas, to random
    @Loukas@mastodon.nu avatar

    I just saw a job advert for professional editors. "Instead of being worried AI will replace your job, shape the future of AI!" They want people to write texts for AI training.

    ”Instead of being worried about Christmas, turkeys can shape the future of Christmas!”

    t_mkdf,
    @t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

    @Loukas who would have thought that the limiting factor for AI would be lack of training data.

    Puny humans. Can't even generate enough data to become irrelevant.

    https://theconversation.com/researchers-warn-we-could-run-out-of-data-to-train-ai-by-2026-what-then-216741

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