@t_mkdf@ruhr.social
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

t_mkdf

@t_mkdf@ruhr.social

Parenting and Pedaling
Rugby and Radicchio
Washing and Warmachines
Climate change and unclear exchange
Cold war kid
Giggling Cardbox
Master of pillow forts
Calculated mediocrity

Somewhere on the fringes of the lowlands and industrial wastes of western germany

IP law in automotive

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. Browse more on the original instance.

mike, to random
@mike@flipboard.com avatar

The big problem with Tesla that this article misses completely is that many of Tesla's most enthusiastic customers (like I once was) no longer want to support a person who is actively promoting hateful conspiracy theories and providing nazis and Russians with a platform to disrupt the upcoming U.S. election.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/05/chaos-at-tesla-what-analysts-think-about-elon-musks-cuts-and-layoffs/?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub

Posted into AC/DC AI @ac

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@mike @ac I would say it's priced in with the decline in market share... Which will only accelerate outside the US with the emergence of BYD and other Chinese EV manufacturers.

The European commission might establish tariffs for these Chinese manufacturers (akin to the US). But in order to be effective these might need to be as high as 55%. Which a) is unrealistic and b) shows how cheap EVs might become in the next few years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/chinese-ev-imports-europe-might-need-to-impose-up-to-55percent-in-tariffs-.html

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar
anderspuck, to random
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

Now that Ukraine's shortage of weapons and ammunition is about to get solved, there is increased attention on the two other big problems on the frontline: Lack of fortifications and a manpower deficit.

In this edition of the Logic of War newsletter I discuss these two problems. Since I won't be publishing a regular video on YouTube this week, I decided to make access free for all on this one. https://www.logicofwar.com/ukranies-three-big-problems/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck lack of fortifications reminds me also of the French in WWI. They saw the trenches as temporary and didn't want to admit to the public that they would need them for a long time.

Also as far as I know the Ukrainian army expected -at least until the fortification program - their troops to dig and maintain their own trenches. Whilst the russians have their own detachments for it.

j2bryson, to random
@j2bryson@mastodon.social avatar

This really seems underreported, presumably because it’s a Russian assault on NATO infrastructure, and no one wants to admit we’re at war?

Russia accused of GPS jamming after aircraft disrupted

Finnair suspended flights to the Estonian city of Tartu after GPS signal interference prevented two planes from landing. Estonia and Lithuania have blamed Russia for jamming GPS signals in the region.
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-accused-of-gps-jamming-after-aircraft-disrupted/a-68964307?

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz @j2bryson @vfrmedia self deterrence.

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz @j2bryson @vfrmedia for western Europe it's also hybris, over reliance on economic ties. And in view of Germany guilt and forgiveness.

And tbh russia just wasn't important enough and seen as an ally against Islamism.

kravietz, to random
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

Soviet double agent Anthony Blunt may have helped Hitler too

In 1979 the art historian was outed as one of the Cambridge spies recruited by Stalin. Shocking new evidence suggests he may also have passed deadly secrets to the Nazis, Robert Verkaik reports

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/392db86e-7d65-4c5d-b2a9-b781d5ee7250

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz @Loukas There are many myths about a betrayal of the plans for Market Garden.

But they all have been debunked.

And the western Allies, especially the US, simply didn't think Berlin was worth it since it would be divided in surrounded by the Soviet occupation zone anyway.

Their price was the Ruhr (which was also the main reason for Market Garden).

anderspuck, to random
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

"They need to do what’s called income mobilization,” she said. "And increasing taxation is part of this.”

From: @thejapantimes
https://mastodon.social/@thejapantimes/112346537715763236

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck @thejapantimes "No one knows Putin’s projections” for the war, said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. "There are rumors and anticipation of an upcoming Russian escalation. They don’t have a crystal ball, that’s why they want to have this money now.”

kravietz, to Germany
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

In #Germany debate escalates about whether the #nuclear phase-out was justified granted its consequences for German economy that are becoming evident now. In the new turn, it is being suggested that the minister of economy Habeck was lied to by his own experts who claimed the phase-out is going to be harmless.^1

At this stage I can only reiterate that since 2011 when the plans were announced hundreds of worldwide climate experts appealed to Germany not to phase-out nuclear, which is one of the few low-carbon and dispatchable sources of energy. Climate scientist James Hansen had been calling German phase-out a “climate crime” and in 2019 hundreds of scientists wrote an open letter to German government asking to reconsider.^2

As I wrote a few years ago, the whole phase-out plan was plagued by cognitive biases, falsified data and excessive optimism about “prospective technologies of future”. The biggest blame however goes to “environmental activists” such as #WWF and #Greenpeace who were absolutely knowingly and cynically lying about both evils of nuclear and benefits of #renewables, convincing many people and pushing the government towards the current failure.^3

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz whilst I partially share your critique on the phase out of nuclear power in Germany, I would like to point out that the reporting is a big nothing burger based on unfaithful reporting of the right wing news outlet Cicero (which is quite close to the AfD). Which apparently could not be bothered with checking the sources

Just culture war fuel.

https://www.volksverpetzer.de/faktencheck/habeck-rechte-pseudo-skandal-akw-files/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz Cicero is far right. And Die Welt stopped being mainstream conservative some time ago.

It's simply a culture war issue. It is safe to say that every reporting on this topic from Germany has to be viewed through this lens.

kravietz, to Germany
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

Three citizens were arrested on suspicion of having worked as foreign agents for Ministry of State Security with goal of forming research partnerships with German universities and collect information useful from military and economic point of view.

https://www.generalbundesanwalt.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2024/Pressemitteilung-vom-22-04-2024.html?nn=478184 (in German)

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz and one of them is working for the far-right frontrunner for the European Parliament Maximilian .

Who is very successful on Tik-Tok btw.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/spionage-china-afd-100.html

gtconway3, to random

“Johnson received a key intelligence briefing from [CIA Director], who painted a picture of the dire situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and the global consequences of inaction, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the situation. The briefing left a lasting impression, and Johnson became increasingly convinced the fate of Western democracy was on his shoulders, sources close to him said.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/21/politics/ukraine-aid-mike-johnson-house-speaker-israel-taiwan

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck @randahl @amayer @DeeGLloyd Trump has other things on his mind anyhow.

IMO the change of mind of Johnson was none. Trump's entanglements and the Iranian attacks gave him an opportunity to make moves against Trump (aid for Ukraine) and Biden (splitting of the bill; Biden was opposed against a standalone aid package).

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@amayer @anderspuck @randahl @DeeGLloyd compared to the MAGA defeat it's minor. But Johnson managed to get what he wanted over Biden's objections.

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck @amayer @randahl @DeeGLloyd

The aid was stalled for so long and it wasn't clear that anything might pass prior to November. Biden simply wasn't in a position to object to the procedure anymore.

osma, to random
@osma@mas.to avatar

This is an extremely based piece on generative LLMs from @molly0xfff. Really, my only issue with it is that it boxes "AI" to discuss only generative LLMs, while there are plenty of other machine-learning and algorithmic exploration technologies that can offer far more practical value in domains that are not just text-based token streams. But, yeah - "AI" now means ChatGPT and the other stuff doesn't have a name. I get it.
https://www.citationneeded.news/ai-isnt-useless/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@osma @molly0xfff I don't like AI. But I am all for machine learning...

anderspuck, to Russia
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

The turmoil in the Middle East has led to many speculations about the extent to which Russia and Iran are coordinating their actions. So I decided to make a video about the relationship between , , and .

This time I am linking to a post on my new Ghost site. Some people have requested that I post transcripts of my videos, which seemed like a good idea. So if you prefer to "read" my videos instead of watching them, you can sign up for the newsletter.
https://www.logicofwar.com/is-there-an-alliance-between-russia-china-and-iran/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@VikingChieftain @anderspuck China and russia potentially have conflicting spheres of interest in central Asia though.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/russias-influence-kazakhstan-increasing-despite-war-ukraine

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@VikingChieftain @anderspuck Italian and German interests didn't overlap completely either. Just think Greece and the Balkans.

randahl, to random
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

Several of you have asked, why half the Republican party has voted for Ukraine aid today, if the party is against it.

The truth is, many republicans have wanted this aid for months — even Mike Johnson was for it in the beginning.

But Trump wanted Biden’s Ukraine agenda to fail, and very few Republicans dare to go against the tzar, because if they do, Trump will immediately endorse another political candidate in their home district.

But what turned this around was security briefings…

1/2

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@anderspuck @randahl Johnson probably has just waited for the right moment.

His goal is neither a russian win nor a Ukrainian win. Or an American win.

His goal is control over the republican party. A Johnson win.

He has used every measure to make MAGA irrelevant and improve his position. Step by step.

Loukas, to random
@Loukas@mastodon.nu avatar

I just saw a job advert for professional editors. "Instead of being worried AI will replace your job, shape the future of AI!" They want people to write texts for AI training.

”Instead of being worried about Christmas, turkeys can shape the future of Christmas!”

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@Loukas who would have thought that the limiting factor for AI would be lack of training data.

Puny humans. Can't even generate enough data to become irrelevant.

https://theconversation.com/researchers-warn-we-could-run-out-of-data-to-train-ai-by-2026-what-then-216741

kravietz, to Germany
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

Dark clouds gathering over industry sector, which is now admitted even by RWE CEO Markus Krebber:

Companies and investors have scouted other countries offering attractive subsidies and cheaper energy prices. “You’re going to see a bit of recovery, but I think we’re going to see a significant structural demand destruction in the energy-intensive industries,” Krebber warned.

German electricity sector strategically depends on coal and gas for its dispatchable generation. Krebber now admits that shutdown of power plants was a huge mistake:

Echoing criticism in Germany over the country’s energy policy, Krebber said then-chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision in 2011 to shut down its nuclear fleet without replacing the fuel with another energy source aside from Russian pipeline imports was a “mistake”.

Then he dismisses the current narrative dominated by “we’ll just replace it by X” where “X” changes every few years in a vicious cycle: renewables industry comes up with new snake oil, investors hype it as “the future solution”, prototypes are built and fail, and we’re back to square one. Investors cash profits and the grid is still screwed. Krebber says what every single grid engineer was saying for the last two decades of anti-nuclear hysteria worldwide:

“When you know exactly what you want to shut down, you need to immediately start thinking about how do I get the new technology in the ground?” he pointed out.

Source: https://archive.is/xW1SC#selection-2993.0-3015.167

What we should of course keep in mind is that as recently as in 2021 the same Krebber categorically rejected any idea of extending operations of nuclear power plants:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rwe-ceo-rejects-keeping-nuclear-power-plants-open-2021-08-24/

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz This:

"Echoing criticism in Germany over the country’s energy policy, Krebber said then-chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision in 2011 to shut down its nuclear fleet without replacing the fuel with another energy source aside from Russian pipeline imports was a “mistake”."

And:

"...lucrative subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act for decarbonisation technologies are attracting European companies." (Like solar panel manufacturers...)

Also in 2021 RWE was all in on russian gas.

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz RWE's problem is also that Germany is buying french nuclear energy. And they are losing market share atm.

All in all we should be glad that Germany is buying French energy. And not russian.

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz

This might be of interest too. German energy market didn't really feel the end of nuclear power. But neither is the "Atomausstieg" the reason why German energy production is "greener" than before.

It has a lot to do with CO2 certificates (buying from elsewhere is cheaper than producing energy via burning Coal...).

So, yeah, it would have been better if Germany would have kept nuclear and phased out lignite faster.

But it could have been worse.
https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/ein-jahr-atomausstieg-deutschland-100.html?at_medium=mastodon&at_campaign=tagesschau.de

kravietz, to Russia
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

Residents of flooded Orsk refuse to evacuate in fear of organised teams of looters. The woman quotes looters who robbed flats and shops in previously evacuated districts. A few days ago, local emergency minister argued that they issued a flood warning „over a week ago but nobody listened”. Please keep this in mind when someone denies Russian looting of Ukraine — Russians even loot their own country when they have an opportunity!

t_mkdf,
@t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

@kravietz state monopoly on violence seems overrated...

SheDrivesMobility, to random German
@SheDrivesMobility@norden.social avatar

deleted_by_author

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  • t_mkdf,
    @t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

    @SheDrivesMobility er könnte auch einfach sage: unsere deutschen Produkte sind auf dem Weltmarkt zu teuer und wir sollten Lohnkosten sparen.

    Aber wie seit jeher ignoriert die deutsche Politik die Binnennachfrage als möglichen Wachstumsmotor. Und geht mangelnde Investitionen nicht an.

    Wir werden in Hinblick auf chinesische Überkapazitäten wahrscheinlich eh nie wieder Exportweltmeister werden.

    kravietz, to random
    @kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

    This interview with an US professor Richard Wolff explaining “how can you get a PS5 under socialism” a bit like watching libertarians evangelizing the fallacy of perfect information of free market participants,^1 just au rebours. Or maybe it’s not even au rebours, just the same exact fallacy, worded differently?

    The postulate of “workers’ councils”, presented here as core part of “socialism” is usually postulated in the “anarcho-syndicalism” package in Europe (in American political parlour everything is “socialism” that is left from Trump).

    It’s based on two fundamental assumptions that also happen to be fallacies:

    • participants of these councils can somehow acquire 100% accurate information about the “social needs” that will be not biased or influenced by any party;
    • the actual “social needs” are identical or can be somehow averaged in a society composed of individuals that often have dramatically different personal preferences.

    A simple example that everyone can ask themselves: some people want to wear green t-shirts, some want orange ones.

    How do you average these? You can’t.

    A typical real socialism solution: make grey ones, so everyone is pissed off but at least equally pissed off.

    A typical regulated free market solution: someone makes green, someone makes orange, someone makes red with “Che” Guevara. Whoever sells most, wins. Surplus is sold at discounted price. Carbon tax curbs possible excess surplus production by internalising the external costs of pollution and CO2 emissions.

    A fragment of a professor Richard Wolff interview where he's being asked is it possible to get PS5 under socialism

    t_mkdf,
    @t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

    @kravietz you can have ps5 under "socialism". But probably not under central control.

    But is a system e.g. made up of collaboratives socialist? Or is it collaborative capitalism?

    kravietz, to China
    @kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

    was quite openly talking to its internal audience about its strategic goal of creating a dependency on themselves in “international supply chains”. Here’s Xi Jinping speech from 2020:

    Firstly, we should stretch the long board, consolidate and enhance the international leading position of advantageous industries, forge some “ace card” technologies, continuously enhance the advantages of the whole industrial chain in the fields of high-speed railway, electric power equipment, renewable energy, communication equipment, etc. and improve the quality of the industry, so as to tighten the dependence of the international industrial chain on our country, and to form a strong counter-control and deterrent ability against artificial supply cut-offs by the foreign side.

    Xi explicitly mentions two elements: energy systems and deterrence which leaves no place for ambiguity - this dependence is intended to be used as a weapon. This is literally what wanted to achieve in 2021 when it artificially raised gas prices, creating an artificial energy crisis in EU, hoping it will deter Europe from engaging on the side of Ukraine in 2022. But in case of Russia, the strategic dependence was gradually disarmed since 2000’s with initiatives such as EU Gas Directive (only one country continuously sabotaged it, actually increasing its strategic dependence on Russia with a new gas pipeline). In case of China the dependence is growing according to China’s plan - where Xi mentioned “renewable energy”, China now controls 80% of the global supply chain for PV manufacturing.

    Source: https://www.xuexi.cn/lgpage/detail/index.html?id=13237620485782082031&item_id=13237620485782082031 (translation by DeepL)

    t_mkdf,
    @t_mkdf@ruhr.social avatar

    @notsoloud @kravietz and lifespan is 20 to 30 years.

    https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/solar/how-long-do-solar-panels-last/#:~:text=The%20industry%20standard%20for%20most,to%2010%20years%20after%20installation.

    China can not leverage finished products the same way as russia could energy exports.

    Also their business model is export of manufactured goods.

    I also suspect that there will be more and more protective moves from the US and the EU to protect domestic industries in view of Chinese overproduction and lack of private consumption.

    https://youtu.be/0Cendx7yyUM?si=oYf79gfDHnq1BeyW

    https://youtu.be/q3n9vSUCr80?si=ZP8stRlcM9dKxzLs

    https://youtu.be/APj1gat-ugs?si=MlZpRrnJoP5Ljop8

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