beadsland,

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent data mid-August—next update anticipated this Wednesday.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer and fewer staff our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111048160524367468

beadsland,

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared two summers ago—as fewer and fewer professionals are available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been further elevated for months now—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

beadsland,

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, near one in five pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing. (There's been a very slight recovery in recent weeks.)

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 67%.

Weekly average ~120 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

beadsland,

Some 228 (+3) counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥ 90%).

Of 268 (+11) counties reporting any PICU capacity, near one in five are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%

⒉ Anoka, MN—119%

Idaho—114%

⒊ Aroostook, ME—110%
⒋ Scott, MN—109%
⒌ Fairfax, VA—107%
⒍ Florence, SC—102%

⒎ Potter, TX—100%
⒏ Cayey Municipio, PR—100%
⒐ Bonneville, ID—100%
⒑ Onslow, NC—100%

❖

beadsland,

Some 46 (+5) counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 190 (-6)—over 8⁷⁄₈% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—near one in six are full or near full.

❖

beadsland,

adult hospital capacity rank USpol

Counties by adult hospital capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Berkeley, SC ≥150%
⒉ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒊ Barton, KS ≥150%
⒋ Chatham, GA ≥150%
⒌ Charleston, SC ≥150%

⒍ Smyth, VA—150%
⒎ Marshall, KY—140%

⒏ Yuma, AZ—110%
⒐ Buchanan, MO—107%
⒑ Wise, VA—106%

❖

beadsland,

Twentieth week of post-Kraken soup, Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2/EG now near one third of three-week GISAID sequences, with Hyperion 1.9.1/FL still one in nine.

Arcturus XBB.1.16 family holds over one in four; Kraken XBB.1.5 now below one in nine; Acrux 2.3 (incl GJ & GE) down to one in ten.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖

CDC's Variant Nowcast showing weighted estimated distribution of variants over fortnights ending 6/10/23 thru 8/19/23, with model-projected estimates for following two fortnights. Proportional stacked bar chart, where each color represents a different variant, inclusive of those descendants not otherwise broken out. Kraken XBB.1.5 (indigo) was dominant through May. Now crowded out by EG.5 (peach, incl. Eris EG.5.1), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss), Arcturus XBB.1.16 (blueberry), dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover), Eris-scion HV.1 (ash), Acrux XBB.2.3 (cotton candy). Meanwhile Kraken dot70 XBB.1.5.70 (forest), Acrux-scion GE.1 (bubble gum) and Arcturus dot11 (muted pink) gaining share steadily. XBB.1.5 estimated at 4.0% and 2.2% vs. 8.5% fortnight of 8/5, for average -41% biweekly drop in estimated share. XBB.1.5.70 estimated at 3.4% & 3.8% vs. 3.2%, for avg +23% gain in est. share. FL.1.5.1 at 10.6% & 13.7% vs. 7.2%, for avg +31% gain in est. share. EG.5 at 22.3% & 24.5% vs. 18.1%, for avg +17% gain in est. share. HV.1 at 4.8% & 8.4% vs. 3.1%, for avg. +96% gain in share. XBB.1.16 at 11.3% & 10.2% vs. 12.6%, for avg -6% loss in share. XBB.1.16.1 at 5.3% & 4.1% vs. 7.0%, for avg -15% loss in share. XBB.1.16.6 at 9.4% & 9.9% vs. 7.7%, for avg +17% gain in share. XBB.1.16.11 at 2.9% & 3.0% vs. 2.5%, for avg. +13% gain in share. XBB.2.3 at 8.6% & 7.2% vs. 9.3%, for avg -9% loss in share. GE.1 at 1.8% & 1.7%% vs. 1.7%, for avg 14% gain in share. ALT-text by beadsland on Ko-fi.

beadsland,

After 6 weeks, CDC resumed estimates for Mid-Atlantic. Five regions remain dark.

For regions with estimates:

• Fornax FL.1.5.1 over ¼ in NY/NJ, over ⅙ in Mid-Atlantic

• EG.5 over ³⁄₁₀ in SW, near ³⁄₁₀ in Gr Lakes, ¼ in Mid-Atl, near ¼ in NY/NJ, ⅕ in SE.

• XBB.1.16.6 > ⅐ in SE.

[See toot above for variants CDC map color key & links to sources for charts.]

❖

Map: Nowcast Estimates for 9/3/2023 - 9/16/2023 by HHS Region Source: Centers for Disease Control Map shows pie charts for each of 10 regions, reflecting regional estimated proportions for specimens collected two weeks ending 9/16/2023. Bold annotation overwrites map, reading "Nowcast estimates are only available for regions 2, 3, 4, 5, and 9." These regions are namely 2: New York/New Jersey (incl. Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands); 3: Mid-Atlantic; 4: Southeast; 5: Great Lakes; and 9: Southwest (incl. Hawaii and Pacific territories and compact associations). Dominant strains by region: NY/NJ: Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 27.7%) and Eris fam EG.5 (peach 23.1%). Mid-Atlantic: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 25.2%), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 15.9%), and Arcturus XBB.1.16 (blueberry 10.1%). Southeast: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 19.5%), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 15.0%), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 10.8%), and Eris scion HV.1 (ash 10.7%). Great Lakes: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 28.3%), Arcturus XBB.1.16 (blueberry 10.7%), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 9.4%), Arcux XBB.2.3 (cotton candy 7.4%) and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 7.4%). Southwest: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 31.1%), Arcturus XBB.1.16 (blueberry 12.8%), and Acrux XBB.2.3 (cotton candy 8.6%). ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.

beadsland,

Work continues on covid variants orchard chart: area-style tree-charts of proportions, organized by family.

Over thousand lines of python thus far—shown in 2nd attached image. Still working out various bugs, kinks, and pending features.

Hatching provided to help distinguish tiles and legend keys at higher end of cielab L-star spectrum. Color scheme based on both L-star & hatching provides for colorblind accessibility. [2nd chart doesn't do this.]

Chart: Annoplot Dataviz Library*: Project Profile Subtitle: 6.8K lines† across component modules and significant submodules. Multi-level pie chart organized into five major categories by color. Each outer wedge shows a tally of the number of lines for that subcomponent. Wedges for "variants" sub-components fully exploded out from chart; purple wedges for "chirp" sub-components exploded out somewhat; grey wedge exploded out less so. A few other wedges are very slightly outward. Caption: * Pre-release development version 2023-09-22 † Python, Markdown, and C source files. Blank lines omitted form tallies. Exploded wedges reflect proportions of lines changed in last 30 days. Dotted areas represent non-blank comment lines and Markdown. Wedges: 🔴 levels 🧀 [blank wedge] - 537 🧀 hospitals - 280 🟣 chirp 🧀 [blank] - 282 🧀 audio - 239 🔵 annoplot 🧀 [blank] - 644 🧀 artist - 285 🧀 artist/text - 259 🧀 chart - 192 🧀 coord - 592 🧀 coord/base - 228 🧀 margin - 240 🟢 tiop 🧀 [blank] - 128 🧀 bullseye - 378 🧀 capacity - 453 🧀 devpie - 383 🧀 variants - 85 🧀 variants/plot - 654 🧀 variants/tree - 388 ⚫ . [a period by itself] 🧀 [blank] 531

beadsland,

Folk are dying at record numbers, of comorbidities of severe acute covid that are also implicated as post-acute sequelae of covid infection. ↺

Of course, ongoing hospital staffing attrition also contributes to elevated death tolls. Said attrition continues. ↺

[CDC next updates Sep 27.]

❖

Chart: Elevated Non-Circulatory Causes of Death: Annualized Dev. from 2015-2019 Avg Data: CDC, Census. Reflects death certs that do not identify covid as underlying cause. [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines 2015–20; solid dots for annualized Jan 2021–June 2023. [Six weeks incomplete data omitted.] Dotted lines for trends from Jan 2020 forward, for each disease category. Dash-dot line for sepsis trend had concerted effort at reduction in 2019 not occurred. Legend: • Diabetes (+11K more annualized deaths vs. 2019) • Alzheimers and dementia (+19K) • Renal failure (+5K) • Sepsis (+4K) • Malignant neoplasms (+13K) • Projected U.S. 65+ population Caption: After spiking in first year of the pandemic, annualized Alzheimer disease and dementia mortality dropped just as swiftly, thereafter remaining near or below historical trend. Diabetes mortality has not been so quick to recover from first year spike, only beginning to decline in the second half of last year, though still well above pre-pandemic trend. Deaths by sepsis were markedly down in 2019, following a coordinated national effort by hospitals. Despite this, sepsis mortality has been climbing at a rate well above even pre-2019’s relatively flat trendline, for over three years now. Renal failure deaths didn’t see an appreciable climb until the latter part of 2021, peaking only months ago. Meanwhile, malignant neoplasm (cancer) deaths, slower to manifest, have been suggestively creeping above trend for well over a year.

beadsland,

Given evidence linking covid infection to sudden onset liver damage, recent increased liver disease mortality is hardly surprising.

Final mortality data for 2020—released on Friday—reveals spike in accidental deaths driven by poisonings & exposure to noxious substances.

[CDC data for 2021 due this year.]

❖

Chart: Causes of Accidental Deaths: Reported Annual Data Data: National Center for Health Statistics [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines for annual data for years 2015 through 2020. Chart is blank 2021 to 2022. Legend: • Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances (up 32.9% btw. 2019 & 2020) [~87K total in 2020] • Motor vehicle accidents (up 8.4%) [42K] • Falls (up 6.8%) [42K] • Accidental hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (down -4.1%) [7K] • Accidental drowning and submersion (up 13.1%) [4K] • Accidental exposure to smoke, fire, and flames (up 9.6%) [3K] • Accidental discharge of firearms (up 10.1%) [½K] • All other unintentional injuries (down -1.2%) [15K] [A table below the legend ranks these items by rate of change.] Captions: Historically, U.S. health authorities have published “Final Data”—detailed tables and demographic analysis of causes of mortality—about eighteen months, give or take, from the close of each calendar year. It took nearly thirty-three months to release final data for 2020. Data for 2021 remains significantly overdue. ---- Despite popular conjecture, the observed sharp increase in accidental deaths between 2019 and 2020 was not due to motor vehicle accidents. Rather, accidental poisonings—up by a third over the prior year—account for nearly all the increase in elevated deaths by accidental causes.

beadsland,

Per WHO, every 12 minutes four people die of acute covid. Three of those deaths are in the United States.

Entering April, for every three covid deaths, U.S. saw another excess death not attributed to covid.

The emergency is over—covid is not done with us.

[China data restored; 43K Vietnam deaths reported 7/30.]

❖

Chart: U.S. Share of 28-Day Covid Deaths Data: WHO (via Our World in Data), NCHS (via CDC), official srcs (via Wikipedia) [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Shows covid 28-day mortality as reported for the U.S. as share of G8, G20, and global 28-day mortality, for 3 years through Sept. 3, 2023, this being the most recent date on which at least 50% of world population was represented in weekly reporting (see note regarding ◇ data points, below). Share of population for each comparison is provided for reference. With the end of PHE aggregate tracking, U.S. ceased reporting covid deaths to WHO. After 5/14/23, chart uses provisional covid deaths from NCHS. ◇ data points represent sum population (via Wikipedia) of those countries that reported at least one death in prior week, as percentage of world pop. [Down to near 60% as of July. Was 90% last August.] 7-day avg of U.S. share of G8 covid deaths at 81.6%, on an upward trajectory, well exceeding share of pop. (~38%). Same date last year, share of G8 covid deaths was 40.5%, jaggedly climbing toward winter. Avg. U.S. share of G20 covid deaths now 58.7% (vs. ~7% of G20 population). Same date last year: 21.3%. U.S. share of global parallels: now 56.2% (vs. ~4% of pop.). This date last year, U.S. share of global covid deaths was 20.2%. All three metrics were near or below respective populations roughly May–Aug 2021; thereafter have been profoundly higher than population but for troughs due data dumps by China & Vietnam, May & July 2023.

beadsland,

Here's hoping—as near 3,000 are dead in Marrakech, new vaccine booster appointments are canceled for insurance reasons, new CDC director tours nursing homes inadequately masked, free covid tests are again available from USPS, and the U.K recovers from Hurricane Nigel flooding—that all those reading this are having a week wherein they and theirs are putting health and welfare of those they love—and share air with—first and foremost.

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