US summer surge of #COVID19—hopefully modest—is starting. Biobot & NWSS report small increases in the past week (particularly in the West & possibly South) driven by a new wave of immune-evasive variants. Nationally, COVID in wastewater is near our 12-month low point last summer. Outdoor activities may help limit this surge. A room with 25 people has an 18% chance of including someone infectious.
✨ This is bodypaint done by me on me✨ Wonder woman as a vampire.🧛🏼♀️ Because why not? 😁
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The JN.1.* +FLiRT variants now make up 27% of sequences and XDK.* which is recombinant of JN.1.1.1 and XBB.1.16.11 is remaining at 5% for now. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
The JN.1.* +FLiRT variants now make up 20% of sequences and XDK.* which is recombinant of JN.1.1.1 and XBB.1.16.11 has made an appearance at 5%. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
The regular BA.2.86./JN.1.#Pirola clan of variants as you know them are starting to go down in Ontario. This is because descendants are picking up two very useful FLiRT mutations. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants has made most other lineages extinct in Ontario. The SanKey shows the situation is now much simpler and almost exclusively JN.1 and descendants. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
You can see just how much the BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants has made a clean sweep since January. The left SanKey shows the variant soup from December while the right is now much simpler. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants has almost made a clean sweep at 90% of sequences. JN.1 "Pirola" surpasses 50% on its own with JN.1.4 a distant 2nd place with 12.5%.
The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants is now the majority of sequences at 66%. JN.1 "Pirola" keeps 1st place at 35% with the "birth" of JN.1.4 at 10% in 2nd and HV.1 #Eris at 9% in 3rd. Graph tools by @mike_honey_
In early December multiple JN.1 descendants emerged with JN.1.4 already taking 10% of sequenced cases, JN.1.2 at 8% and JN.1.1 at 6% so the family is growing quickly and may prevent JN.1 from hitting 50% on its own.
The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants is now the majority of sequences at 60%. JN.1 "Pirola" keeps 1st place at 45% with HV.1 #Eris a distant 2nd at 12%, then JN.1.2 at 7%. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants is now the majority of sequences at 56%. JN.1 "Pirola" has taken 1st place at 38% with HV.1 #Eris down to 18%. The next closest is JG.3.2 "Eris" at 7%. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
The EG.5.* #Eris clan of variants is close to going under 50% of sequences. JN.1 #Pirola has taken 1st place at 27% with HV.1 "Eris" down to 20%. The next closest is JG.3.2 "Eris" at 10%. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
The JN.1 variant has taken over in the US. It may not result in a spike of hospitalizations, but it's definitely adding a significant burden of infections and subsequent risk of #LongCovid. Luckily, the XBB.1.5 booster helps protect against JN.1 https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
The EG.5.* "Eris" clan of variants is still most prevalent but declining. HV.1 "Eris" is still 1st with 22% but dropping rapidly while JN.1 "Pirola" is 2nd at almost 15% and JG.3.2 "Eris" at 11%. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
The EG.5.* "Eris" clan of variants is still most prevalent but declining. HV.1 "Eris" takes top place with 28% while JN.1 "Pirola" is 2nd at 8.5% and taking off. Graph tools by @mike_honey_
You have time for a 3-minute 🧵 on #COVID19 & why you should be cautious, right?
If you get infected this weekend, you'll almost certainly be sick for the holidays. That either means staying home or risking spreading unnecessary viruses to your friends and loved ones.
COVID in wastewater in the Midwest is at its highest point in two years. In the Northeast, COVID is at its highest since last holidays. https://biobot.io/data/
Among the reasons we're seeing yet another significant holiday surge is that a new and dangerous variant is growing rapidly, JN.1. It rose from 3.5% to 21% of samples tested in just two weeks. It's on track to become predominant right around Christmas (and then could accelerate this surge even more into January). https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
The EG.5.* "Eris" clan of variants while currently most prevalent is starting to decline while BA.2.86* "Pirola" clan, especially JN.1 is taking off. HV.1 didn't obtain a majority and declining. Graph tools by @mike_honey_
We've been talking about the growth of the JN.1 #COVID19 variant for a month now. The CDC is finally breaking it out in its Nowcast: Growth from 4% of US tests to 21% in 18 days. The last estimate is as of 11/29, so it's probably predominant or nearly so today. That suggests we'll see a great deal of growth of COVID infections in the coming three weeks through the holidays. No surprise there, but if you needed more evidence: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
This sankey diagram shows the EG.5.1 "Eris" clan of variants are currently most prevalent: >70%. COVID-19 by far has the highest virus activity and still very little flu. Graph by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
I wrote a #memoir about my father's early-onset #Alzheimer's with the #logopenic#variant (word-finding) -- called Finding the Right Words -- only to/in order to (?) realize that sometimes, maybe a lot of times, the most important #caregiving is not about words at all. Scout, my chihuahua and I think all #dogs, know this simple and hard thing, which #humans -- at least this human -- struggle to understand and embrace.
Third week of Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2/EG wave. Last week's CDC Nowcast estimated third of samples were Eris EG.5.1 descendants—with Eris scion HV.1 at ¼ of samples.
For 3-week GISAID sequences, Eris EG.5.1 fam now all but half share. Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 fam below ⅒. Arcturus XBB.1.16 fam now below ⅕.