@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

AdeptVeritatis

@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de

I fell in love with love.

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mekkaokereke, (edited ) to random
@mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io avatar

As we hear reports that it will take 10 years (🤯) to replace the 1.6 mile Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, remember that China built the Danyang-Kunshan bridge and Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Bridge in 4 years each.

Danyang-Kunshan Bridge is 102 miles long, and 100 ft above the water.

Jiaozhou Bay Bridge is 16 miles and 623 ft tall, earthquake and typhoon proof, and can withstand a direct strike from a 300,000 ton cargo ship. That last point is unfortunately topical.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U7iQqogVmr8

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@mekkaokereke @UncivilServant @McBeth @hazelweakly

Our Maglev isn't going anywhere, because we didn't build it. At least, "our" technology is working in China for 20+ years now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transrapid

Europeans may invent things or know, what to do. But we don't realize and actually do it then.

(Same applies to social changes.)

a_watch, to random German
@a_watch@bewegung.social avatar

+++ Großspenden-Ticker +++
990.000 Euro an das Bündnis Sahra von Thomas Stanger aus Klütz in MV 🧵
https://www.bundestag.de/parlament/praesidium/parteienfinanzierung/fundstellen50000/2024/

AdeptVeritatis, (edited )
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@a_watch

Die Adresse ist eine Siedlung mit Ferienwohnungen.

Also scheint das komplett gefälscht zu sein. [edit:] Es sei denn, das gehört den Spendern.

... fängt ja gut an.

Einzigartiger, to random German
@Einzigartiger@chaos.social avatar

Wegen solchem Arschlochverhalten kann man online nur noch mittels überwachender Zahlungsdienstleister einkaufen. Dabei wird das Risiko immer mehr hin zum Kunden verlagert. Es kotzt mich so an. Verkauft das DTicket doch einfach monatlich als Papier am Schalter mit Barzahlung.
https://www.saechsische.de/dresden/dvb/deutschlandticket-betrueger-bringen-dvb-um-mindestens-1-4-millionen-euro-6002542-plus.html

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@alice @Einzigartiger

Deswegen wollen die ganzen Sadisten auch wieder den Faschismus haben. Damit sie Leute quälen und umbringen können.

"Don't hate the player, hate the game sag ich mal."

Vielleicht aber auch nicht.
Die wollen das ja. Die Auswirkungen dieser Entscheidungen kann man nicht einfach auf die sich bietende Gelegenheit abschieben.

AdeptVeritatis, (edited ) to random
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

The video of the talk from Wim Taymans about at is released.

video:
https://video.fosdem.org/2024/ub4132/

talk:
https://fosdem.org/2024/schedule/event/fosdem-2024-1988-pipewire-state-of-the-union/

What a fantastic talk! Really helpful and interesting, although I follow the progress of the project quite closely.
Audio quality was much better than last year.

@pipewire

kravietz, to Russia
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

After we had a very interesting discussion with @AdeptVeritatis on modeling the war from economic perspective, I declare to write about the model by Peter Turchin.

Turchin is a scientist working in the area of complex systems, which in the past gained some publicity as “chaos theory” - modeling systems so complex internally that their states are usually only described in statistical terms and their behaviour is described as “chaotical”, even when it really isn’t. Such as societies, economies, political systems etc. In 2020 Turchin made some fame when people dug up his 2010 prediction that in a decade US may be hit by a wave of large civil unrests. He came to this conclusion based on modeling a combination of numerous economic and social factors which seemed to converge to a state usually resulting in unrest.^1

Turchin has been also attempting to model the war started by Russia and his team created a mathematical model that includes economic (military industry output) and demographic parameters (number of soldiers).^2 The model has evolved over the last two years but the latest version is probably best described, including its limitations, by this article^3. I was surprised to see people like MacGregor and Ritter quoted there, but Turchin seems to use them as the proponents of the most possibly cynical scenario for the purpose of modeling. But if you read the whole model description, which I encourage everyone to do, Turchin’s assumptions are quite impartial and as realistic as a simplified model can be.

The baseline scenario is quite pessimistic: to make the long story short, Russia has economy and population so large that it will simply not deplete before Ukraine’s does. That’s as cynical as it can be, and as a matter of fact this is the core argument Russians are always raising: they’re just too big to lose and therefore they always win.

However, Turchin also looks at alternative scenario where Ukraine’s economy (represented by ammunition production rate) is really equivalent to the whole EU and US, in which case the roles reverse.

The model in theory should not be interpreted as a real-world forecast, as clearly stated in the article’s disclaimer. But you really can’t not do it, because all the time it refers to actual numbers of actual people.

The primary issue I have with it is the inconsistency of the predicted human losses with reality: Ukraine’s losses after two years reach almost 300’000 while Russian are 3x less. This, if anything, is the opposite of real estimates.

The secret really lies in two factors: the number of shells fired (function of economy) and the “casualties per shot”, which is kind of arbitrary and set to 1/30. The number is, again, kind of estimated based on real Russian loses, but then, on page 8, there’s a key phrase “I set d2 = d1”. This try statement essentially assumes that Russian losses per shell are the same as Ukrainian.

If you try to play with these parameters in the live model^2 you can actually get losses modelled closer to the real estimates. Of course, this model’s deficiency is prominently mentioned by Turchin in the article. The primary Turchin’s conclusion from the model’s outputs seems to be that the critical condition for Ukraine’s victory is economical and industrial support of its allies. Which was only days ago sadly demonstrated by evacuation of Avdiivka.

I would add that the losses ratio is also a critical parameter, because while Russia may have population 4x larger than Ukraine, losses at ratio 1:13 (confirmed armour losses) or 1:7 (declared by Ukraine) aren’t sustainable even for Russia. Which clearly hints that any strategy that incurs such losses at Russia is preferable, which most likely implies a defensive strategy.

Also, in terms of model’s parameters, as Turchin himself notes, human losses suffer from very high uncertainty as both sides actively obscure them. At the same time, OSINT provides equipment losses which were in the past confirmed to cover up to 80% the actual losses, which could make the case for further improvement of the model’s output.

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@kravietz @elston_

Another argument:

A sovereign nation state can choose the alliances or coalitions they like. They don't have to ask their neighbors, who they will be friends with.

Why do people think, e.g. France has to ask Germany, if it is allowed to join an alliance with Morocco?
Why does Ukraine have to ask Russia, if it can join NATO?

"Because in reality for Russians none of these countries are really “sovereign” but their former colonies".

But they are not colonies anymore. Fact!

fj, (edited ) to random
@fj@mastodon.social avatar

The International Criminal Court application for arrest warrants, and subsequent developments of 🇪🇺 countries recognizing the Palestinian state, are a good test to see if European nations are able to achieve foreign policy goals when they go against US interests, ahead of Trump's likely re-election
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-69047220

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@fj

A nation state is not a solution for this situation. But it seems to be so simple.
"Our nation is great, so we need to give them a nation to become great, too."

No, definitely no!

Who decided to recognize a Palestinian state?
Single nation states! This is not a collective EU decision.

(Trump would probably be happy about a Palestinian state, but I don't know.)

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@fj

These are applications for arrest warrants not arrest warrants.

The idea behind a Palestinian state is based on nationalism. It will not bring peace. If peace is the foreign policy goal, this test will fail badly.

It will only show, that again inappropriate and outdated measures were carried out. The old solutions, which didn't even work here.
We tried to take the next step with the EU and are still pulled back by selfish nationalism constantly.

kravietz, to Ukraine
@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl avatar

Further details about evacuation of are emerging on Telegram channels of the units involved. The units who held Avdiivka were:

  • 110th Brigade
  • 53th Brigade
  • 47th Brigade
  • 59th Brigade
  • 3th Brigade
  • “Alpha” and “Omega” special forces units
  • Border force
  • National Guard

One of the most critical roles was to secure the evacuation route from the most advanced positions in Avdiivka. This job was undertaken by 225th Brigade and GUR, including RDK (Russian Volunteer Corps), specifically “Timur’s unit”.

Casualties ratio in Avdiivka was described by general Tarnavsky as 1:7 in favour to defenders. OSINT data earlier indicated ratio of 1:13 in confirmed damaged equipment alone. Russia’s human losses since the beginning of January were estimated at 20’000, a number very similar to what Prigozhin called out last year after siege of Bakhmut.

Also note that Ukraine forces did not abandon Avdiivka completely, they just left the positions most exposed to the risk of encirclement in the town centre, to the south (“Zenit”, “Tsarskaya Okhota”) and to the east (“filter station”). Ukrainian forces continue to hold the coke plant and the front line to the north. It very much seems like the lessons from Bakhmut were learned and the most damaging urban fighting was avoided.

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@kravietz

Had a similar thought in April 2023:
https://social.tchncs.de/@AdeptVeritatis/110262584871532906

Refined the argument in August:
https://social.tchncs.de/@AdeptVeritatis/110876621969294967

And came to this conclusion in October:
(Just hand drawn estimate, no modeling.)
https://social.tchncs.de/@AdeptVeritatis/111289980985809386

GaymerGeek, to random
@GaymerGeek@mstdn.games avatar

Well that was close! The winner for the game for is Day of the Tentacle! It looks like a fun point-and-click adventure game.

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@GaymerGeek

"It looks like a fun point-and-click adventure game."

:mastozany: Many of the older video gamer (I know) consider this to be the best game ever. But that may be prejudice.

AdeptVeritatis, to art
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

A patch full of flowers in the center of Berlin, where once has been a Reggae / Hip Hop club two decades ago.

23-fold mandala animation with pink and green colors.

AdeptVeritatis, to art
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

This one is from a walk in the park, where I took a photo of grass with raindrops on it.
I made a 42-fold, rotating mandala from it, used that in another 8-fold mandala and mixed it into a color filter.

Colorful mandala animation moving in waves.

AdeptVeritatis, to nuclear German
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

Ach, die ist gar keine Grundlast-Alternative?

Ein wird einfach heruntergefahren, wenn der zu niedrig wird.
https://yle.fi/a/74-20032375

Und wenn es mal wieder zu einem der technischen Ausfälle kommt, dann schnellen die Strompreise sofort nach oben, weil es kaum Resilienz gibt.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/finlands-ol2-nuclear-reactor-off-grid-power-prices-rise-2023-08-18/

PS: Unabhängig ist Finnlands Stromversorgung damit übrigens auch nicht.

AdeptVeritatis, to india
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

Goa Gil 72nd Birthday Celebration with Zion Rebel Ritual

on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nidL_jZPpg8

https://www.youtube.com/@GoaGilOfficial

on Twitch:
https://www.twitch.tv/goagilofficial

AdeptVeritatis, to random German
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

"Sowohl fremde Menschen als auch seine Kinder hätten ihn mehrmals mit kritischen Kommentaren zum Video konfrontiert."

:mastorofl: :mastorofl: :mastorofl:

Und er merkt es immer noch nicht.

https://www.lto.de/recht/nachrichten/n/egmr-960218-bild-deutschland-video-polizist-unverpixelt/

AdeptVeritatis, to random
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

Why don't people ask to start a ?

AdeptVeritatis, to random German
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

Bei manchen Leuten ist es echt wichtig, dass sie auch weiter in den Nachrichten gehalten werden.

Damit wir nicht vergessen, wer die Hauptschuld an der ganzen Scheiße hat!

Dass sie sich eigentlich nur selbst in die Nachrichten bringen, ist dabei sogar noch besser. Danke an , die den Anstoß dazu gegeben haben.

https://correctiv.org/in-eigener-sache/2023/11/14/gazprom-lobby-sigmar-gabriel-erstreitet-halbsatz-gegen-correctiv/

AdeptVeritatis, to rust
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

pw-videomix v0.2.1 is out!

After complex filter chains for endless combinations in last version:

Now with a color rotator node like changing hue constantly. Using a trigonometric function allows to select upper and lower borders for some nice effects.

Also the fader (stacker) is finally there to create slideshows of connected nodes with blending.

Try it out here:

https://gitlab.freedesktop.org/AdeptVeritatis/pw-videomix

AdeptVeritatis, to art
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

Hello !

This one is for my grandma. :mastolove:

Animation of a 16-fold mandala from white and yellow / orange lichen on a tombstone.

AdeptVeritatis, to random German
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

75 Jahre 🥳 🎉

"Es gibt aber auch Forderungen, das Grundgesetz zu modernisieren. Thüringens Regierungschef Bodo Ramelow (Linke) hatte vorgeschlagen, die Bevölkerung über eine Verfassung abstimmen zu lassen."

Ob er versteht, dass damit die Landesverfassungen ungültig werden? Er als Ministerpräsident sein Land sozusagen auflösen muss, bevor es eine übergeordnete Verfassung geben kann. Und wir dann keine BUNDESrepublik mehr sind aus 16 BundesLÄNDERN.

https://www.rbb24.de/politik/beitrag/2024/05/berlin-brandenburg-75-jahre-grundgesetz-staatsakt-agh-polizei.html

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

Übrigens tolles Foto über dem Artikel.
Dieser Staat missbraucht die Macht, die wir ihm gegeben haben, so massiv, dass die Mächtigen inzwischen ganz schön Angst vor uns bekommen haben.

Das ist also das Foto, um damit in die Feierlichkeiten einzustimmen und Gemeinsamkeit zu schaffen. :mastolol:

mo8it, to rust
@mo8it@fosstodon.org avatar

If your project doesn't use rustfmt and Clippy, you are not really welcoming contributions.

Probably a one-person show with your subjective style.

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@jnfrd @mo8it

Clippy is really helpful. I use it regularly, but fix the findings manually. (To imprint it into my workflow.)
There is even the possibility to use it inside your IDE in addition to the LSP server.

"Note: Clippy is meant to be used with a generous sprinkling of #[allow(..)]s through your code. So if you disagree with a lint, don't feel bad disabling them for parts of your code or the whole project."
from: https://doc.rust-lang.org/clippy/usage.html

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@Revertron

You don't need to be part of a marginalized group to understand their needs. Or to have similar problems.

This was just meant as an example from the history of programming, to explain where all this stuff originates from.

Thanks for your contribution to the topic. It is important, that all kinds of people voice their subjective opinion.

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@Dr_Emann @mo8it

No, I said the other style preference is subjective, too.

IT IS OBJECTIVELY NOT WORKING FOR EVERYONE OR IT WOULD BE WORKING FOR ME.

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@Dr_Emann @mo8it

👏 You got it! Nice.

Now, what about this being placed there for you to find it? This is exactly, what I wanted to say. There is no objective style.

I think, this is called irony. And just to make it clear, the first line of this answer (the one with the clap) is completely unironic.

And to admit, I forgot that I used the rhetorical figure. Now I understand your reply much better. Sorry for this.

Dodo_sipping, to random German
@Dodo_sipping@cupoftea.social avatar

Der Focus ist einfach ein übles, rechtes Fossil, Ampelbashing inklusive. Und Markworts "Tagebuch" kannste nicht lesen ohne Würgereiz.
....

CO2-Steuer und Emissionshandel: 2027 könnte Autofahren unbezahlbar werden - FOCUS online
https://www.focus.de/auto/news/co2-steuer-und-emissionshandel-ab-2027-koennte-autofahren-unbezahlbar-werden_id_259965655.html

AdeptVeritatis,
@AdeptVeritatis@social.tchncs.de avatar

@Dodo_sipping

Der Redakteur für Autos hat persönlich übernommen. Solche furchtbaren Artikel sind immer Chefsache.

https://www.focus.de/intern/impressum/autoren/sebastian-viehmann_id_2512697.html

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