This is literal doom, but I actually find it mildly encouraging that our security and government services are being told the truth about the current state of the nation, society, and world. This is the kind of report that every single politician needs to not only read but reallyunderstand.
Quotes below:
"The situation will probably deteriorate further in the next five years, as the early effects of climate change and a global recession add their weight to the ongoing crises"
"accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations"
"the difference between the extremes of wealth is greater now in developed countries than it has been at any time in several generations"
"Law enforcement should expect continuing social and political polarization fueled by misinformation campaigns and an increasing mistrust for all democratic institutions"
"Access to [big data] will allow private entities to develop the means to exercise undue influence over individuals and populations at an unprecedented level"
"In the wake of COVID-19, Canada's governments have normalized operating during a respiratory pandemic... the damage to the economy and to the social fabric of the nation is ongoing"
"Biden has steered the country out of a #recession and #pandemic, gotten through a slew of critical legislation (some bipartisan), avoided a default on the #debt, set the stage for about 14 million new #jobs and overseen a resurgence of manufacturing. Internationally, he has restored the #UnitedStates’ image and solidified and expanded #NATO in defense of #Ukraine.
And still the #CentralBanks continue to trot out the 'wage-price' spiral as the key cause of inflation, as justification for continued rises in #interestrates & the likely #recession that they are engineering.
Its about time they understood wage rises (where they are achieved) are a lagging factor - following inflationary pushes - not the cause.
In the UK that would require a clear appreciation of the role of #Brexit; more widely it needs a focus on the role of #profits & maintaining margins!
Business people have been predicting a #recession since Biden was elected. They're starting to get frantic. They really need one to have any hope in 2024.
The British Retail Consortium's quick data on January #retail sales confirms that as sales growth (of 1.2%) continues to lag #inflation (4%) we continue to see a squeeze/decline on sales volumes;
as this indicates, the #costofloivingcrisis (or as I prefer the crisis of #enforcedpoverty) is still driving down actual spending power for individuals.
We are still buying less, although spending more on what we do buy.
For consumers, this is what #recession looks like, whatever the formal GDP data
For those interested in such things, this week brings the latest #GDP figures and the confirmation for otherwise that we have reached a proper technical #recession... which you'll recall will be welcome to the Bank of England that in its fight against #inflation has decided a recession is the sort of pain we need to squeeze out demands for more pay by those pesky #workers.
Of course if we are in a recession & profits are being maintained, we all know whose really hurting... & its not the MPC!
En Argentine, l’effet Milei, c’est d’abord la hausse de la pauvreté
Le niveau de pauvreté en #Argentine serait revenu en deux mois à un niveau jamais vu depuis vingt ans. La contre-révolution libertarienne du président #JavierMilei a aggravé la #récession dans laquelle le pays était déjà englué depuis l’été dernier.
Or is it a dawning realisation that the UK economy is a dysfunctional economy run with a stacked deck, that is engineered to benefit a small rich elite?
I've spoken to so many ex-students who now want meaningful jobs rather than enter a corrupt rat race.
Here's the BBC Verify team's take on Rachel Reeves assertion that this is the worst economic inheritance faced by an incoming govt. sine WW2.
The (downbeat) conclusion is that things are bad but not historically unprecedented....
Oh that's a relief.....
But perhaps the point the BBC team quietly ignore is how much of the situation we find ourselves in right now was self-inflicted, rather than part of a wider global context....
If the UK drops into #recession in the next 6-9 months, it will have been engineered by the BoE via #interestrates rises;. the Q. then is it in whose interest is an engineered recession?
One might conclude that the #Tories want a term out of office to firmly attach the blame for the UK's economic worsening malaise on Labour;
given #voters seldom vote for the present Govt. when economies are in trouble, a recession will give the Tories the rest in opposition they now seem to want/need?
If you want to know what a Sado-Monetarist looks like, here's Catherine Mann who is currently arguing that the BoE should put up (!!) #interestrates to 5.5% because the UK has failed to fully squeeze #inflation out of the economy....
I think what she actually means is the BoE has failed to conclusively plunge the UK into #recession & must try harder... because as we know 'if its not hurting, its not working', and clear Mann thinks we're not hurt enough yet!
For many retailers the last three months of the year & especially the run up to #Christmas are when they make much of their money & lurch into #profit for the year.... so news that consumer spending is down (both in value adjusted for #inflation & volume) suggests not only has #BlackFriday failed to spur consumption, but the #costoflivingcrisis will shape buying this Christmas (unsurprisingly).
Early 2024 may see a spate of retail failures & closures; another symptom of a coming #recession
When #CentralBanks use #interestrates as their only 'weapon' against #inflation the delay of effect can be between 12-18 months... so we are currently impacted by the BoE policy of around a year ago, while today's interest rates will feed through the economic environment at the end of 2024.
So the danger is (always) the interest rates policy may 'overshoot': on the way up leaving inflation running too high, but also on the way down running the risk of #recession...
Martin Sandbu concludes, after exploring how #inflation has been about supply-side shocks, that:
'we don’t understand how monetary policy works in today’s economy. At least we should hope we don’t, for if it does turn out to work like we used to think it does, we should soon see things get a lot worse as higher rates finally start biting and throwing people out of jobs'!
If #CentralBanks are right then they'll have deliberately engineered a #recession; if they're wrong the pain was pointless
Well headline #inflation is down to 6.7% (in figures released this morning).... but will the #BankofEngland care... No!
They will only be satisfied when they have forced a #recession, plunged #workers into (further) penury, raised #uneployment & by doing so neutered workers power to organise through fear of being out of work.
Its the toxicity of the Phillips Curve written into policy making....
Germany entered a recession last year because the average worker needed 20 sick days.
Pitting public health against economic health is fundamentally wrong and will lead to the utter destruction of both.
#Stocks are surging, unemployment is near historic lows and the nation appears to have avoided a predicted #recession. Yet Trump claimed on Monday that the economy is “fragile” and running on “fumes” as he warned of a crash.
“And when there’s a crash, I hope it’s gonna be during this next 12 months,
Former House Speaker #Pelosi (D-Calif.) called Trump "grotesque" for his comments.
#Australia is unlikely to fall into #recession in 2024 but for most families it will feel like one, according to a leading economist who’s predicting years of financial pain for households. #auseconomy
Deutsch Bank have had a go at answering the Q.: how long does it take #interestrates changes to feed through in to the economy'?
There answer is not the months that most #economists seem to base discussion on but rather (as the chart suggests) show a cumulative impact that takes around four years to fully take effect.
If so, the impact of the BoE's current policy will still be negatively impacting the economy in 2026/7;
It used to be said that when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold (as a way of explaining the impact of its economy on global markets)....
So as #China slips into a likely deflationary period (potentially slowing its #economic growth further), are we now seeing what happens when the pivot east, opens up the global economy to the impact of a Chinese #recession?
Taking my preferred measure for #economic activity/growth, the UK has been in #recession for over a year... no wonder people are less optimistic about the UK economy than #RishiuSunak & #JeremyHunt keep telling us we should be.
Lives vs. Livelihoods: The Impact of the Great Recession on Mortality and Welfare
... We leverage spatial variation in the severity of the Great #Recession across the United States to examine impact on mortality and explore implications for the health consequences of recessions... an increase in the #unemployment rate ... reduces average, annual age-adjusted mortality rate by 2.3 percent, with effects persisting for at least 10 years...
According to the British Retail Consortium, non-food retail prices actually fell last month driven by discounting.
So, we are seeing the very real impact of the squeeze on household financing driven by BoE policy.
While food prices seem unlikely to drop for climate & supply reasons, across non-food markets its the potential start of a period of deflation... an 'overshoot' by the BoE that will be hidden in 'headline' inflation but will still be a serious economic problem.