sundogplanets, (edited )
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

Quick poll: off the top of your head, without searching online, do you know what "Kessler Syndrome" is?

thomasjwebb,
@thomasjwebb@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets nothing makes me think that I absorbed a nonsense idea more than seeing that the actual experts aren't even aware of it, lol.

Snowshadow,
@Snowshadow@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets
Yes, I knew and I am not an astronomer but I read "too much"😂

phryk,
@phryk@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets No astronomer, but still worried about it because some shitty billionaires seem hellbent on making it happen.

taxet,
@taxet@mementomori.social avatar

@sundogplanets I voted no idea but actually after checking I did know that after all (maybe not the exact term, but the concept in general)

But I mean I guess it counts as being not “off the top of my head” if I had to look it up first. 🤔

sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

@taxet Yep, I'm just trying to find out about name recognition here, thanks for sharing!

jayrhacker,
jayrhacker avatar

@sundogplanets it's when debris hits your satellite and creates a bunch of debris which hits other satellites… until it's all just debris 🪨 → 🛰️ 💥 🪨 → 🛰️ 💥 🪨 → 🛰️ 💥 🪨 → 🛰️ 💥

maxthyme,
@maxthyme@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets Sci-fi nerd is the main reason here.

Uraael,
jmax,

@sundogplanets - I do have an undergraduate physics degree and a few astronomer friends, though.

glutto,
@glutto@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets
I didn't recognize the name, but I'm familiar with the concept.

kyleejohnson, (edited )
@kyleejohnson@jawns.club avatar

@sundogplanets the closest I got was some dude did the Kessel run faster than anybody else in a pretty janky starship. I’m pretty sure these two things are not related.

TeflonTrout,
@TeflonTrout@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets Not astronomer, did know- Thanks, Perun Gaming and Terra Invicta

ClearSkyWanted,
@ClearSkyWanted@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets I voted the first choice but I am only an amateur astronomer and I do know what the Kessler Syndrome is and it's not good.
Elmo is not helping...

ranx,
@ranx@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets I learned it from your posts 🛰️💥🛰️💥🛰️ 💥🛰️

CosmicTraveler,
@CosmicTraveler@mastodon.social avatar
Uraael,

@CosmicTraveler @sundogplanets Billionaires will absolutely pay taxes.

sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar
CosmicTraveler,
@CosmicTraveler@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets Yes, but only because I follow you.

roadskater,
@roadskater@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets "Assuming I'm thinking of the right syndrome" == "I have a vague idea".

Turn out I had it correct because of reading Stephenson's Seveneves.

nyquildotorg,
@nyquildotorg@fedia.social avatar

@sundogplanets I've had to Google "ablation cascade" a few times to remember the name of the syndrome. Not an astronomer.

TheDailyBurble,
@TheDailyBurble@mastodon.social avatar

I'm still trying to find out how this new AMD Radeon machine needs an Nvidia driver update app.
Looks like anyone with ideas got stuck in the reply guy box and not saying a word. Or possibly nobody knows, or possibly people know but aren't saying. I got past binary options oooh must be 30 years ago.

Again, I wish search engines worked. Wasn't so long ago that they did. Mibs 2 years ago?

jdlbt,
@jdlbt@techhub.social avatar

@sundogplanets does amateur astronomer qualify as astronomer?

sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

@jdlbt yes!

sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

(I included the "astronomer" and "not astronomer" categories, because I am pretty sure the people who I interact with here skew pretty heavily toward astronomers so the yes's might dominate just because of that)

petelawler,
@petelawler@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets I'm looking forward* to one happening the same day as a Carrington Event 😧 (which, I suspect, will actually be a trigger for said syndrome)

thomasfuchs,
@thomasfuchs@hachyderm.io avatar

@sundogplanets Where does amateur astronomer fall into that? (Fwiw I know what Kessler syndrome is without looking it up.)

sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

@thomasfuchs Amateur astronomer = astronomer!

faraiwe,
@faraiwe@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets @thomasfuchs ...astromateur?

thomasfuchs,
@thomasfuchs@hachyderm.io avatar
sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

Ok this poll was fascinating. 1) I thought a much larger fraction of people I interact with here are astronomers. 2) I thought "Kessler Syndrome" had a lot more name recognition!

Thank you all for providing valuable data for me and my colleagues to use as we try to educate the general public about the dangers of unregulated commercial satellite deployment.

engravecavedave,
@engravecavedave@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets I voted yes but it took me a while because I knew it as the "Kessler Effect" instead of Syndrome. For a second I thought it was some medical thing 😅

I think Europeans tend to refer to it as "Kessler Effect" more. Idk if this is of any significance

grrrr_shark,
@grrrr_shark@supervolcano.angryshark.eu avatar

@sundogplanets I actually learned it (non-astronomer) when you mentioned it about a year ago :)

sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

Since several people asked as follow-up, Kessler Syndrome is where the number of collisions between satellites and/or junk in Earth's orbit continue to increase, even if you don't add more to the system. We're probably already at this point, but the collision rate is very low (so far).

That could change quickly, if there is a collision that releases a large amount of debris close to Starlink's orbital shell, which is by far the densest part of Earth's orbit (and they're adding more every week)

hnapel,
@hnapel@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets

Deorbit Envisat! If that 'bus' breaks up we're toast if we aren't already...

sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

How worried should we all be?

This is real-time data of close approaches between stuff in orbit (credit to Dr. Moriba Jah): http://astriacss03.tacc.utexas.edu/ui/min.html

1-2km close approaches every few minutes doesn't seem too bad, but remember everything in orbit travels at several km per second and most of these tracked objects don't have the ability to maneuver.

It's pretty bad, folks.

thomasfuchs,
@thomasfuchs@hachyderm.io avatar

@sundogplanets I had no idea that it’s this bad already 😟

michael_w_busch,
@michael_w_busch@mastodon.online avatar

@thomasfuchs A large debris-generating event was avoided two months ago only by the chance of the satellites' orientations: https://www.space.com/nasa-timed-satellite-russian-space-junk-near-miss-february-2024

And per @sundogplanets , if Cosmos 2221 and TIMED had collided; a fair portion of the resulting debris would have extended down into the Starlinks' altitude range.

It is not great.

thomasfuchs,
@thomasfuchs@hachyderm.io avatar

@michael_w_busch @sundogplanets
I mean it’s basically just a matter of time (I’m sure someone has calculated this)

hnapel,
@hnapel@mastodon.social avatar
thomasfuchs,
@thomasfuchs@hachyderm.io avatar

@hnapel @michael_w_busch @sundogplanets he’s still around apparently

gpshewan,
@gpshewan@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets out of interest, where would you even start with liability when it goes to hell?

robryk,
@robryk@qoto.org avatar

@sundogplanets

How well maintained is that website?

I've looked at a random low-speed close pass between two payloads it has shown, and it claimed that "41963U 0 FLOCK 3P 27" and "41964U 0 FLOCK 3P 25" are the satellites that will pass by each other (full text that was displayed: https://paste.sr.ht/~robryk/2403f065780b51d04a6068f104b0da3302968ce2). My web search yielded multiple sites claiming that both had decayed (resp. in 2022 and 2023). Am I reading that wrong?

autolycos,
@autolycos@med-mastodon.com avatar

@sundogplanets isn't it the poor life form's dyson sphere?

sundogplanets,
@sundogplanets@mastodon.social avatar

@autolycos OUCH

rootsandcalluses,
@rootsandcalluses@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets I did look it up after your post. I did know the issue but not the name. Now I do. Thanks! Already taught two friends 😉

electric_gumball,
@electric_gumball@mastodon.social avatar

@sundogplanets
I have a relatively deep understanding & interest in astronomy. I own a telescope.
Am I an astronomer?
I think no.
I don't actively contribute to the body of knowledge, I just want to understand as much as I can while I'm here.

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