timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Good morning to readers; #Kyiv remains in #Ukrainian hands.

Today's issue is on the #Russian mines that are slowing Ukraine's counteroffensive, and those brave enough to work everyday to neutralize them.

Plus: why is the #Heritage Foundation now opposing Ukraine aid?

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Harley Whitehead was living in Kyiv when Russians launched an in February 2022.

A citizen of the UK, he moved to in 2019 and was teaching English. But after the invasion began, he went to study how to become an tech in Kosovo.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Returning to Ukraine, he now clears minefields as a self-funded volunteer.

“The content of metal on the ground is extremely high, clearing these mines will take decades if not centuries,” Harley said. “Russia [uses it] as economic warfare [against] farming."

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Enjoy our compelling, human-led news reporting, on the individuals affected by the war in Ukraine? Sign up for our newsletter at http://counteroffensive.news!

It's free - and gives personal insight into the invasion that you won't find anywhere else. Plus, it helps our team in Kyiv!

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

One of the major reasons for the slow Ukrainian advance in the south and east is the enormous line of mined Russian defenses.

ISW's George Barros explains why:

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Landmines are designed to create dilemmas, or impossible choices for your enemy.

The idea is to lure troops into the minefield and open fire. Then the friendly troops are faced with a dilemma. If they stay in place, they get cut down; if they advance forward, they hit mines.

der_istvan,
@der_istvan@chaos.social avatar

@timkmak I have difficulty understanding this diagram. could you explain it (in the alt text maybe?)

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

There are basically two types of landmines used by Russia in Ukraine, anti-personnel and anti-vehicle.

Russian doctrine typically mixes anti-vehicle and anti-personnel mines in the same fields. They create minefields that are between 200-400 meters deep.

This standoff distance between anti-vehicle mines is designed to prevent “sympathetic detonation,” where the detonation of one mine sets off a chain reaction with adjacent anti-vehicle mines.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Read more about the types of Russian mines used -- anti-tank TM-62Ms, anti-personnel 'petal' mines, and much more, in
@RyanMcbeth
and I's deep dive on http://counteroffensive.news

Pictured: Homemade probes and shovels for demining, and the fuse removal tool for an anti-tank mine.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Necessity is the mother of invention:

“We are using thermal technology – during dusk around 8pm we can use a drone which will pick up heat signatures from the mines that have been retaining heat from being sat in the sunshine all day."

Combat engineers are vital to the fight, but there aren’t many of them.

We spoke to a new Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) volunteer for the Ukrainian side, a man named Borys – he declined to give his last name due to the sensitivity of his new role.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Borys said he had volunteered in part because the Russians had mined his parents’ village, and a family friend had lost a foot.

He realized that the problem of mines could easily affect him or his family.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

said he had volunteered in part because the Russians had mined his parents’ village, and a family friend had lost a foot.

He realized that the problem of mines could easily affect him or his family.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Now the news:

Ukraine is mourning the loss of one of its most revered fighter pilots, Andriy Pilshchykov, a.k.a. his call-sign, ‘Juice.’

Juice had campaigned for the provision of F-16s to Ukraine, but will not live to see them arrive in-country.

"Juice" told me about everything in the world related to aviation and SAM [surface-to-air-missiles], [and] wrote thousands of messages,” reflected his friend, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat. “How can I live without it now?”

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

President Zelenskyy weighed in on the midair accident that took the life of Juice and two other pilots over the Zhytomyr region: “Ukrainians will never forget anyone who defended Ukraine's free sky," he said. "May they always be remembered!"

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

POSSIBLE BREAKTHROUGH? A Ukrainian commander, known by his call-sign Skala and pictured above, confirmed that his forces had retaken the town of Robotyne in the southern front, breaking through the most difficult line of Russian defenses.

RUSSIA PRESSES IN THE NE: Russian forces killed two civilians by shelling a cafe in Kupiansk, which had been liberated by Ukr forces.

There are fears in the region that further Russian advances could lead to a second period of occupation.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

UKRAINE NAVAL DRONES PARALYZE RUS FLEET: Ukrainian intel chief Budanov said 60-70% of naval drones are being destroyed by Russian military.

But he says they create a deterrent, as their ongoing threat stops the Russian fleet’s movements.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK:

Everywhere I travel in Europe, from Italy to the U.K. to Germany, I see signs of support for Ukraine in the form of its flag hanging on balconies, patios and doorways.

A pro-Ukrainian demonstration outside a Hugo Boss in Berlin earlier this summer:

video/mp4

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

We’ve talked a little about the GOP base’s opposition to funding Ukraine aid.

71% of Republicans now oppose additional funding for Ukrainians in the fight for their lives.

Over the last day a Twitter post went viral for suggesting that the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C., changed its position on Russia because they made a deal with a Hungarian think tank to collaborate on research.

CaptainJanegay,
@CaptainJanegay@mastodon.coffee avatar

@timkmak The Russian embassy in London has had to put up two layers of temporary fencing to keep people away, although it hasn't protected them from milkshakes (or the occasional brick, by the looks of it)

MettEagle,

@timkmak hm ok i guess we can assume funding from hungary is funding from ruzzia indirectly.

Robert_R_Freitag_II,

@timkmak Is that really consistent with the audience's reaction to discussions of support for Ukraine at the recent debate?

noyes,
@noyes@mastodon.online avatar

@timkmak

When petulant conservatives say they support something they used to oppose, what they really mean is that they're planning on destroying it from within. Steve Bannon oversaw Biosphere 2. Participants were so afraid of him that they broke a window to escape. Elon Musk has often made statements that were later revealed as diametrically oppositional to his actions behind the curtain, Hyperloop being a famous example. Conservatives are pathologically dishonest, never to be trusted.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

I've reported on the conservative right for the past 15 years (it was my first journalism beat).

The answer is likely much simpler: Heritage opposes additional aid because it’s increasingly untenable in Trump’s GOP to support Ukraine.

I think I’ve mentioned this anecdote before: I was at an NRA convention last summer where Trump spoke.

He got polite applause when he talked about guns.

But the loudest round of applause came when he said if re-elected he would shut down aid to Ukraine.

dana,

@timkmak No surprise. Uniformed still do not understand NATO
Resent cost of this alliance without appreciating value
Post-policy irrational party ready to break stuff regardless— Brexit is this impulse

alberto_cottica,
@alberto_cottica@mastodon.green avatar

@timkmak but why would American conservatives even care one way or another?

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Heritage Foundation has always been a think tank where the research followed the political agenda, rather than vice versa.

With a base so hostile to funding Ukraine aid, there doesn’t need to be some secret back room Hungary deal to incentivize Heritage to change positions.

It is true that Heritage supported previous Ukraine funding, but now says it will support it no further. The reason Heritage changed its position on further Ukrainian aid is pretty obvious to me: its base won’t permit it.

TomShafShafer,
@TomShafShafer@toot.community avatar

@timkmak The GOP is full of Putin's useful idiots.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Recent Heritage explanations of why not to support additional funding:

  1. Ukraine has history of corruption, not enough oversight

  2. It takes the focus off deterring China from attacking Taiwan

  3. The strategy for aid is incorrect: F16s wouldn't help, for e.g.

marcas,

@timkmak A “correct conservative approach” is not a thing that exists. If it’s correct, it’s not conservative; if it’s conservative, it’s not correct.

DavidNielsen,
@DavidNielsen@mastodon.social avatar

@timkmak a group which has consistently worked to further the removal of oversight, cites this as the number one reason to not do the right thing.

The irony can be cut with a knife.

katzenberger,
@katzenberger@social.tchncs.de avatar

@timkmak
I believe that giving space to such propaganda, reiterating it, makes it harder to tell the truth. No offense intended, Tim.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

I think the better question for supporters of Ukraine is this: How best to convince Republicans who are persuadable to support more Ukrainian aid?

I hope to have a better answer for you – based on evidence – in a future issue.

But in the meantime, if you’ve been having conversations with conservatives (or lefties) in your life about Ukraine, what points have you found to be most persuasive?

brucy,
@brucy@heads.social avatar

@timkmak I would ask how abandoning Ukraine would either help Taiwan or deter China and not have the opposite effect on both.

peachfront,
@peachfront@toot.community avatar

@brucy @timkmak

i've asked that & know what? the reality is anyone who still identifies as GOP is pro-fascist & pro-Russian >no argument i make matters to them

i've also pointed to WW2 & how appeasement didn't work, giving up ground to invaders encourages them to keep invading-- know what? they still don't care> they believe Hitler should have won, that's what all the 88 stuff is about

no fascist ever changed their mind because of logic, science, or decency

qkslvrwolf,
@qkslvrwolf@mastodon.social avatar

@peachfront @brucy @timkmak this. All of this.

Spicewalla,

@timkmak

Maybe the answer is to worry less about republicans and more about fence-sitters. It is a lot harder to convince someone to reverse their beliefs than it is to convince someone who doesn't have a strong opinion in the first place.

If enough fence sitters decide to use their votes to deny republicans power it won't matter what republicans believe.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Today’s Dog of War is Nox, a dog I met on a bus in Berlin not far from the anti-Hugo Boss protest shown above.

I didn’t get his thoughts on Ukraine, but I have a gut feeling on where he stands...

charles222a203,

@timkmak whats the anti-Hugo Boss protest about?

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

@charles222a203 It's explained in our newsletter!

Hugo Boss resumed exports to Russia, circumventing sanctions, following a short break in spring 2022

DaveMWilburn,

@timkmak @charles222a203 name a more iconic duo than fascism and Hugo Boss.

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

Stay safe out there.

And please do consider subscribing to us at http://counteroffensive.news to help us sustain our readership during a challenging period for growth -- every sign-up helps, and then you'll never miss an issue!

Best,
Tim

DaveMWilburn,

@timkmak at least when talking to the moderate conservatives in my life, I've found it useful to discuss how cheap this aid is in relation to the damage it is doing to one of America's most implacable foes, and how much cheaper it is than dealing with the aftermath of a successful Russian conquest of Ukraine and subsequent direct threats to NATO. I've tried to emphasize how the biggest deterrent to China would be their witnessing a Russian defeat and Western resolve. I've tried to emphasize the moral arguments in opposing Russian war crimes and attempted genocide. The fact that Ukraine is seeing at least some modest success in the battlefield makes all these arguments easier.

The biggest challenge I see is that many right wing Americans are culture-bound to oppose Ukraine. They are saturating themselves in right wing media and social networking that continuously reinforces pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine narratives. They receive social credit within their tribe when they repeat and amplify those narratives. It's impossible to break through while someone's entire sense of identity and belonging are centered around these narratives. My brief interactions, no matter how cleverly crafted, cannot overcome the stickiness of someone's daily media consumption habits or tribal identity.

maelduin13,

@timkmak
My hunch is that the long term goal of Republicans is that they want a / America white Christian alliance to oppose

At heart they are white and it is going to be very hard to persuade them that Russia is an evil that must be fought

StanWonn,
@StanWonn@mstdn.social avatar

@timkmak For me, it just boils down to the ideas that 1) Ukraine has every right to defend itself against a hostile invasion and 2) that Ukraine has a right to determine its own path, including things like joining the EU and/or NATO.

maelduin13,

@timkmak

The approach I discussed in this thread I posted about Strelkov and Prigozhin might be effective.

If you can make people realise that they that they've been made a sucker, it can invoke a very emotional and eye-opening response

https://mas.to/@maelduin13/110650032603144238

Robert_R_Freitag_II,

@timkmak To be crude, Trump's base are a bunch of L's looking for a W. If support for Ukraine can be articulated as a Republican value--which historically it actually is--this might be especially appealing in the context of his current legal problems.

Trouble with that, of course, is that the Dems are playing support for Ukraine as a particularly 'Democratic' value.

Alon,
@Alon@mastodon.social avatar

@timkmak Looping in @ryanlcooper for talking to leftists about Ukraine.

Re talking to American movement conservatives: go on Birdsite and ask Lyman Stone? He's very deep in the movement, and also is very hawkish and pro-Ukraine, and talked in 2020 about how to talk to conservatives about corona (he lived in HK in early 2020, warned people against corona early, and thinks little of the denialists).

ryanlcooper,

@Alon @timkmak can't say I've convinced anyone if I'm honest

wherephysicswentwrong,

@ryanlcooper @Alon @timkmak Yeah, you will have a hard time convincing people with critical thinking skills.

eurasiareview.com/john pilger
silencing the lambs how propaganda works

ryanlcooper,

@wherephysicswentwrong goo goo gaa gaa

taatm,
@taatm@mathstodon.xyz avatar

@timkmak
The simple pitch to Republicans is that funding and supplying F16’s will finally remove Russia from the board, allowing the focus to entirely become China. Not only that, proving old F16’s massively increases European government spending on F35’s.

Not only will that pump money into the next generation of fighter jets, it secures the industry and therefore the jobs of thousands and thousands of Americans.

It’s a win, win, win, win, win.

DeeGLloyd,
@DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world avatar

@timkmak
Elbridge Colby is a fucking realist moron who somehow thinks that his preferred with will somehow not get enough attention if the sends era surplus kit to (nevermind 's "unlimited partnership" with China). Now he's aping the "invade cuz " from the far right corners of the party.

fjwheeler,

@timkmak I really wish that intellectuals like Francis Fukuyama would clearly state why they have left the Republican Party and why the base has become toxic. Fukuyama is affiliated with some of these think tanks and he and others need to speak up.

TruthSandwich,

@timkmak

It’s almost as if Trump works for Putin.

jhavok,
@jhavok@mastodon.social avatar

@timkmak GOP hostility toward Ukraine isn't organic. It comes from the same place as GOP hostility toward public health measures: Russia's desire to weaken the US. We recently saw an analysis of a Russian program to plant the idea that Ukrainian aid was depriving Lahaina of support. This was not a unique program at all, it was just one prong of an effort to stir insurrection in our country, gladly embraced by the traitor party. Heritage is another prong.

wifsten,
@wifsten@mas.to avatar
raiaren,
Robert_R_Freitag_II,

@timkmak I suspect that Ukraine's priority may be to strategically cut Russia's supply lines to Crimea, which would have enormous military and political consequences.

I am sure that any re-occupation by the Russians in the east will only be temporary, made much shorter by strategic victories in Crimea and the west.

Yoshi,
@Yoshi@toot.community avatar

@timkmak I equate EOD to Vietnam era "tunnel rats." I can't imagine having the nerves to do either. I wish him and all men/women fighting for UKR a speedy and just end to this atrocity.

amayer,
@amayer@rheinneckar.social avatar

@timkmak Harley has his own YouTube channel for the EOD group:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbDZpBQB0oM

weaselx86,
@weaselx86@mastodon.social avatar

@timkmak
Republicans are pro-Russia.

That's also why they're so in favor of global warming.

Climate Change and Russian Agriculture
Update Date: 24 Jan 2022
https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/18679

How Russia Wins the Climate Crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/16/magazine/russia-climate-migration-crisis.html

Agricultural area in Siberia will expand due to climate change
13 December 2019
https://ksc.krasn.ru/en/news/agricultural_area_in_siberia_will_expand/

Agroclimatic potential across central Siberia in an altered twenty-first century
3 November 2011
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045207

yingtai,

Boosting the above for my followers @timkmak

timkmak,
@timkmak@journa.host avatar

@yingtai thank you!

Npars01,
@Npars01@mstdn.social avatar
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