SarahEx, to random German
@SarahEx@dresden.network avatar

Momentan weiß ich gar nicht mehr wie ich hier filtern soll um nicht wegen der ganzen schlechte Nachrichten in den Tröts wieder ins Loch zu fallen.
Gleichzeitig ist mir bewusst, dass ich grad einfach nur Glück hab und privilegiert bin.
Das macht wieder ein schlechtes Gewissen/ Gefühl und das hilft auch nicht.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@SarahEx

Bei mir ist auch deshalb alles mit #hashtags versehen.
#DEpol #USpol und #GeoPol willst du dann z.B. wohl wegfiltern (damit beschäftige ich much wohl jedoch am meisten).

Etwas #SMDetox tut uns allen gut.--Wieviel, bestimmt jeder selbst. Gut, wenn du es vorher merkst.--Keine Nachricht , ausser einer Katastrophenwatnung für deinen Standort ist es wert, das du dafür in eine Depression fällst.
Dir geht's gut? Super! Berichte ruhig darüber, denn viele haben Probleme und wollen Positives.

HistoPol, to worldwithoutus
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

#USpol #GeoPol #WarInGaza

(1/n)

New perspectives on the conflicts in the #MiddleEast by Firas Modad, "...a Middle East analyst for 20 years."

Via @thehill

"The foreign policy establishment fails to see that the Middle East balance of power has shifted"

"#Arab leaders in #Syria, #Egypt, #Jordan and #Lebanon 👉never wanted #Palestinian radicals to wage insurgency against #Israel👈, not out of hatred of the #Palestinians, but out of fear of the consequences.
The...

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4492433-the-foreign-policy-establishment-fails-to-see-that-the-middle-east-balance-of-power-has-shifted/?utm_source=press.coop

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@thehill

(3/n)

...in which leaders have accepted their weakness in material and military affairs and sought to normalize with a much more powerful, Western-backed .

By contrast, the , , , the and others chose a more religiously-sound approach. They accepted that the could overwhelm them with high-tech “shock and awe” aerial attacks. 👉They chose to focus instead on delivering...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@thehill

#MiddleEast #USpol #GeoPol #WarInGaza

(4/n)

...decisive blows that show that some key aspect of the enemy’s power, some Goliath, such as the air force, is in fact impotent."👈

"👉#Iran and its allies, by contrast, regularly show that they can keep fighting and landing decisive blows.👈 They, like the #Arab peoples led by #America’s allies, 👉are religiously committed to destroying #Israel.👈

As such, 👉helping the Israelis win by taking in #Palestinian refugees, whom the ...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@thehill

(5/n)

... know would never allow back, is not in the interests of leaders.👈

Rather, their best bet is to stay on ’s good side rhetorically and commercially, but 👉to quietly improve their ties with Iran and other enemies, and prepare to end their normalization with Israel.👈

This is 👉why the reconciled with under auspices, and why the is helping both and evade ...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@thehill

(6/n)

...sanctions. 👈

The balance of power, which previously forced the states to avoid fighting Israel and antagonizing the U.S., has shifted. 👉Now the balance of power dictates that the prevent from winning and avoid antagonizing and their own publics.👈

But the balance of power has not shifted enough for leaders to disengage from the U.S.,...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@thehill

#MiddleEast #USpol #GeoPol #WarInGaza

(7/n)

...which is why the Saudis still talk to the Americans of normalization.

//

COMMMENT:

I have a lot of reasons to believe that #FirasModad of #ModadGeopolitics
is right in his assessment.

Continuing this train of thought, however, this leaves only dire outcomes for the #Israelis and the #Palestinians:
If no #Muslim country will grant them refuge for political reasons, a lot of the #Gazan #refugees will die on that border wall...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@thehill

#MiddleEast #USpol #GeoPol #WarInGaza

(8/n)

...There will never be peace in #Palestine, not even if there were a #TwoStateSolution, placating the #Palastinian population, neither the #Sunni, nor rhe #Shia neighboring countries will stop their hostilities until the whole of the #Israeli state is eradicated from the map.

If #Trump should at last really get his second term as president, the global balance of power will further shift even further towards #America's antagonists...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@thehill

(10/n)

...are in a position of probably maximum historic strength.
So, right now would be the time for both to negotiate.

Alas, the leaders of the two peoples are arguably the worst combination in decades: their chief (only?) aim is to remain in power.

So, we have two peoples, and two groups of leaders, whose aims are or should be aligned, but whose, likewise aligned, leaders make a solution impossible.
A cataclysmic irony of fate.
//

Do..

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar
bmi, to random German
@bmi@social.bund.de avatar

Ministerin Nancy Faeser zum #Cyberangriff einer vom russischen Geheimdienst gesteuerten Gruppe auf die SPD-Parteizentrale sowie Rüstungs-, IT- und Luftfahrtunternehmen:

"Derartige Angriffe bedrohen Demokratie, nationale Sicherheit und unsere freiheitliche Gesellschaft. Wir fordern Russland erneut auf, derartige Handlungen zu unterlassen. Wir sind entschlossen, gemeinsam mit unseren europäischen und internationalen Partnern solchen Cyberangriffen entgegenzutreten."

👉 https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/kurzmeldungen/DE/2024/05/schutzmassnahmen-cyberangriffe.html

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@bmi

(3/3)

..
Je schneller die endlich auch gegenüber der eigenen Bevölkerung zugibt, dass sie sich längst im befindet, umso effektiver kann dieser Krieg noch gewonnen werden.

//

EU_Commission, to random
@EU_Commission@social.network.europa.eu avatar

💙 20 years.
💙 10 countries.
💙 1 enlargement.

On 1 May 2004, the citizens of 🇨🇾 🇨🇿 🇪🇪 🇭🇺 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇲🇹 🇵🇱 🇸🇰 🇸🇮 became citizens of the EU.

Since then, we have witnessed growth and prosperity. Real wages have doubled from 2004 to 2023 in these ten countries, while poverty levels have halved.

Our Union has benefitted from more innovations. The free movement of goods, services, capital and people, have brought greater opportunities for people and businesses.

#20YearsTogether

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@collectifission

#GeoPol #EU enlargement

As with #Russia, #Israel, and other places, not the country or even its peoples are the problem but the often illegally elected regimes or their actions contrary to international law and in violation of human rights.

That said, I do hope that the "leaders" of the aforementioned countries, including #Hungary's, will be ousted sooner rather than later.

@EU_Commission

Oeneus, to random
@Oeneus@assortedflotsam.com avatar

The Free Palestine movement is white kids looking for clout by posting genocidal derangement about a region they've never been to.

image/png

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@specked

(1/2)

Yes, and that makes things more complicated.
In the end, if not one of the 2 peoples is rather completely anihilated, an unthinkable outcome, the 1947 solution of the , developed by great thinkers, is IMO the only way to a lasting solution that will not necessarily entail terrorist attacks on a daily basis.

I am not a big fan of quotes, but 8:7 holds a lot...
@marcelliotnet @Oeneus

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@specked

(1/n)

"...but also on the ground realities at the time, such as the population's presence and the outcome of the - War of 1948."

I can agree with all the facts that you state here (with the whole post, in fact) as they coincide with my recollection of things I have read and heard in the past. Thank you, too, for the recap.

However, just like President , I am...

@wikipedia @marcelliotnet @Oeneus

dominiksteiger, to Israel German
@dominiksteiger@swiss.social avatar

Quite an astounding efficacy of air defense, if these numbers are correct. Especially the missiles.

HistoPol, (edited )
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@gimulnautti

#MiddleEastWar #GeoPol

(1/2)

I agree.
I'd go even further re/ "de-escalation," though:

The #MullahRegime needs a face-saving "victory" against the aggressor, at least for it's populace.
Telling the world and rubbing it in that "you accomplished nothing" will only anger the Mullah Regime further, as well as a big part of the #Iranian people, against #Israel and the West ("Death to America!")
IDF and Netanyahu Regime: tone it down, better STFU!

...

@dominiksteiger

gratefuldread, to random
@gratefuldread@gratefuldread.masto.host avatar

deleted_by_author

  • Loading...
  • HistoPol,
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @gratefuldread

    #GeoPol #Israel #MiddleEastWar

    With all due respect, asking the wrong questions rarely leads to the right answers, let alone solutions that work.

    And if assumptions are incorrect, an analysis is incomplete or even faulty, the deductions and conclusions can never be correct, even if they sound reasonable

    https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/112268702494050375

    https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/112268807194230537

    raymondpert, to iran
    @raymondpert@mastodon.cloud avatar

    Snap Insight: Iran-Israel conflict will get worse before it gets better

    > For years, #Iran and #Israel have engaged in tit-for-tat strikes against each other. Their conflict increasingly looks like a slow-motion war with no obvious off-ramp, says Pusan National University’s Robert Kelly.
    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/iran-first-direct-attack-israel-drones-missile-hamas-war-snap-insight-4264356

    HistoPol,
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    #GeoPol #MiddleEastWar #Israel #Iran

    (1/2)

    Excellent analysis. 💯 %.

    Via Prof. #RobertEKelly, Pusan National University (South Korea)

    "Snap Insight: Iran-Israel conflict will get worse before it gets better

    For years, Iran and Israel have engaged in tit-for-tat strikes against each other. Their conflict increasingly looks like a slow-motion war with no obvious off-ramp...

    👉The United States has generally been...

    https://mastodon.cloud/@raymondpert/112270423127634138

    Cc @raymondpert

    raymondpert, to iran
    @raymondpert@mastodon.cloud avatar

    Iran seizes cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz, Iranian media says

    > Iran's Revolutionary Guards seized an Israeli-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the Iranian state-run IRNA news agency reported, days after Tehran warned it could close the area to sea traffic.

    > IRNA reported that a Guards helicopter had boarded and taken into Iranian waters the Portuguese flagged MSC Aries. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ukmto-receives-report-incident-50nm-northeast-uaes-fujairah-2024-04-13/

    HistoPol, (edited )
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @raymondpert

    conflict

    (1/2)

    The Regime engages in state and against vessel in international waters

    Via Reuters*

    "The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea ():"

    "Acts of piracy threaten maritime security by endangering, in particular, the welfare of seafarers and the security of navigation and commerce. These criminal acts may result in the loss of life, physical harm or hostage-...

    https://mastodon.cloud/@raymondpert/112263942466863289

    HistoPol,
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @raymondpert

    #GeoPol #Iran #Israel conflict

    (2/2)

    ...taking of seafarers, significant disruptions to commerce and navigation, financial losses to shipowners, increased insurance premiums and security costs, increased costs to consumers and producers, and damage to the marine environment. Pirate attacks can have widespread ramifications, including preventing humanitarian assistance and increasing the costs of future shipments to the affected areas."

    https://www.un.org/depts/los/piracy/piracy.htm

    GreenFire, to random
    @GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

    China has canceled millions of tons of agricultural import contracts indicating that they've gotten a better deal from Putin.

    HistoPol, (edited )
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @GreenFire

    #USpol #GeoPol #Security #China

    (2/n)

    ...thinking out-of-the-box. Time for the #US to stop the partisan fighting and catch up.

    These big #LegacyTech #AircraftCarriers from the (previous) #ColdWar period?--I think the #60Minutes report indirectly shows that they could be "sitting ducks" for the #PRC's new rockets...

    Oh, and yes, 2027 seems like a plausible date for a #Chinese invasion of the #RepublicOfChina. If #MoscowAgentGriftingAmerica, #MAGA #Trump remains the...

    HistoPol,
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @GreenFire

    (3/3)

    ..., they can expect little or at least less opposition from this foreign-controlled / indebted stooge (let's not forget about the deal we already know about!)

    //

    Geri, to random
    @Geri@mastodon.online avatar

    Mark Francois talks about Neville Chamberlain "denuding the British forces of funding until it was too late."

    This is wrong. Even while Chamberlain was signing the Munich Agreement in 1938, he was agreeing to a huge increase in spending to increase Britain’s armament in preparation for war.

    Mark knows fuck'all

    Know your History

    https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/chamberlain-and-hitler/

    HistoPol,
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @Geri

    (4/n)

    ...living in part of called the . began protests and provoked violence from the police.
    👉 claimed that 300 Sudeten Germans had been killed. This was not actually the case, but Hitler used it as an excuse to place German troops along the Czech border."👈

    Welcome to 's repetitive playbook!--Always the same old, same old for decades.

    The next "...

    HistoPol,
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @Geri

    (6/n)

    ...with the to defend them if [] invaded [them]. 👉 did not think would go to war over Poland, having failed to do so over .👈 He sent his soldiers into Poland in September 1939. Two days later, Britain declared war on Germany."

    And there is a sixth lesson to be learned: an unjust peace, even if only viewed by a large majority of one of the former combatants, will not...

    HistoPol,
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @Geri

    (7/n)

    ...will not hold, but lay the foundation for the next war: which left millions of suddenly on foreign soil with a foreign sovereign and unpaiable reparations (as deemed by Sir ) made it rather easy for the to gain followers and spread their propaganda.

    "The [] government believed that and 👉...

    HistoPol,
    @HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

    @Geri

    (8/8)

    had genuine grievances,👈 but that if these could be met (‘appeased’) Hitler would be satisfied and become less demanding."

    https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/chamberlain-and-hitler/

    I stand with what I said earlier today:

    https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/112088055790270012

    Or, to quote from 's 2024 speech:

    !

    //

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