Ariel Holzl nous revient dans un univers inspiré de la mythologie nordique, ça part comme un classique Young Adult mais ça prend bien vite une tournure plus sombre et imprévisible
Many scientists believe the culprit for the last great cold period in the transition out of the Ice Age was the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): a web of currents that includes the Gulf Stream. Recent studies suggest it may collapse again — sooner than we expect.
"The latest research finds the Gulf Stream has warmed faster than the global ocean over the past two decades, and has shifted toward the #AtlanticCoast.
"Scientists say the ocean current, which carries tropical water up the #EasternSeaboard, has warmed two degrees Fahrenheit since 2001 and could be pushing warmer water into the #GulfOfMaine.
"Robert Todd, an associate scientist with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said years of data collection confirm what climate models predicted.
"'Long-term ocean observing really is important,' said Todd, 'and we need to keep making those observations so we can understand what’s actually happening in the climate system.'
"Todd said #OceanTemperatures are steadily rising as a result of human activities. He said the findings could determine how changes in the Gulf Stream will impact Maine’s coastal industries.
"The Woods Hole study relied on more than 25,000 ocean temperature and salinity observations collected through the Argo Program — an array of some 4,000 floating robots throughout the global ocean.
"In addition, underwater gliders have slowly navigated the Gulf Stream — revealing warm rings of water, which Todd says could enter the Gulf of Maine and alter marine #environments and species.
"'You can imagine if you have an organism that likes cold water, and suddenly the water is a whole lot warmer because this ring was there,' said Todd, 'those organisms might not be there anymore or might suffer — and then, the fisheries associated with that would suffer.'
"The Gulf of Maine — which stretches from #CapeCod in #Massachusetts to #NovaScotia, #Canada — is already considered one of the fastest-warming ocean regions on the planet.
"Todd said the data collected is shared in real time with scientists around the world."
This is an absolute gem. The periodic kerfuffle about the Gulf Stream turning off (actually the science is about AMOC, NOT the Gulf Stream, but no-one apart from oceanographers seems to know or care) isn't new. My colleague Tom Rossby found & translated this short story from 1910 about Americans diverting the Gulf Stream and causing disaster for Sweden. Well worth reading (click pic):
"By carefully measuring the height of the sea surface and using our knowledge of the Coriolis force, oceanographers will be able to use data from NASA's #satellite to reveal #OceanCurrents in greater detail than ever before. But to make sense of that data, researchers need to compare satellite measurements with observations made down here on Earth. "
"We have also seen dramatic changes in fast, narrow rivers of seawater called western boundary currents, such as the #GulfStream and the #EastAustralianCurrent.
These currents funnel heat from the tropics towards the poles, and in recent decades they have become hotspots for ocean warming. In the Southern Hemisphere, they are warming two to three times faster than the global average. "
On the US east coast, this means: Meaner, wetter #hurricanes
Confirmed: New Study Shows The Gulf Stream Is Definitely Weakening
This is the strongest, most definitive evidence we have of the weakening of this climatically-relevant ocean current," says physical oceanographer Chris Piecuch, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
The Gulf Stream, a vital ocean current that regulates the climate of Europe and North America, is weakening faster than ever before. This is due to the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet, which adds freshwater to the North Atlantic and disrupts the salt balance and density of the water. We could face more extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, storms, floods and droughts, sea level rise and biodiversity loss. #GulfStream#ClimateChange#Greenland
"We conclude with a high degree of confidence that #GulfStream transport has indeed slowed by about 4% in the past 40 years.
The Gulf Stream affects regional #weather, #climate, and coastal conditions, including European surface air temperature and #precipitation, coastal #SeaLevel along the Southeastern U.S., and North Atlantic #hurricane activity. "
PBS Weathered haben erneut ein sehr gutes Klima-Video gemacht. Themen dieses Mal: Die Verlangsamung und der mögliche Zusammenbruch des AMOC ("Golfstrom") und der Cold Blob im Atlantik.
U.a. mit @rahmstorf
PBS Weathered have uploaded a very well done climate video again. Topics this time include the slowing and possible collapse of the AMOC ("Gulfstream") and the Cold Blob in the Atlantic.
#ClimateDiary 31st July 2023 Day after day of storm, wind, rain here, never ending #HeatWave#Floods and #Wildfires elsewhere; new research showing #AMOC#Gulfstream may be much closer to collapse than previously thought. Not a peep from political leaders about any of this. On the contrary: #FossilFuel funded Rishi #Sunak, having praised cars yesterday, today gives go-ahead for 100s of new oil and gas projects. #GTTO it’s a matter of survival 1/3
#ClimateDiary I have been seeing the “there are some positives to climate change for us here in England” take quite a few times recently: the people described in this article; the #Frost statement last week (will share link below); and this brochure by a local #Vineyard. I know it’s obvious but just want to really call this out, for 3 reasons:
With so much of rest of world already really suffering it is morally abhorrent to go on about benefits here
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2. It is stupid and wrong to think that, whilst rest of world suffers, we will thrive. Yes the whole thing is profoundly uneven and unjust, but we are all connected, from global food systems to migration etc etc etc - we will not thrive here whilst everything else falls to pieces
There are signs that #Jetstream#Gulfstream#AMOC changes might mean that we end up having a much colder climate, and anyway far more turbulence; it will not just be "I.5C warmer here". In short
I am so filled with dread at what is happening with the climate. The collapse of the Gulf Stream is imminent. What do I do with this knowledge? It’s the same dread I was raised with as a kid believing Armageddon is nigh, only this time the terror is scientific and not religious. #exJW#ClimateAnxiety#ClimateDiary
@Shanmonster I share your overall dread by regarding the #Gulfstream: i saw many people pointing out that the recent Guardian article (and many others) was really misleading, it’s not the whole gulf stream but a small side branch of it that might collapse. @globalecoguy in particular has been writing about this
Metrics for the strength of the #AMOC at different latitudes give different numbers.
On the one hand, this is unsurprising. The AMOC is a system of currents (not the #GulfStream). But it does complicate the picture compared to a simple 'conveyor belt'.
It could happen as soon as 2025, but far more likely in the next century. The uncertainties are rather large, but whatever the timescale, the consequences would be catastrophic on a global level.
Yes, I know full well that #AMOC and the #GulfStream are different, but am not so pedantic as to damn the Guardian editors for highlighting the latter in their decent précis of the Nature paper. The physical connection between the two is the #NorthAtlanticDrift: the branch of the Gulf Stream that affects northern Europe. My only quibble with the work is the projected time of collapse. The error bars are so large that one should always quote a time range.