How should numeric probabilities be translated into words? Maybe they shouldn't be.
"Words of estimative probability" wreak havoc in high-stakes communication like #intelligenceCommunity assessments and briefings, in part because intelligence and defense institutions map numbers to different words (!) — see Amelia Kahn's forthcoming work at ameliakahn.wordpress.com.
Pre-job-ad announcement: soon advertising 2 x 3-year research posts to work with me & Ethical Data Initiative at the Technical University of Munich (really fun & supportive environment!). Closing date for applications 1st April, start in September. Pls spread the word! Details coming v soon #philsci#sts#hps#DataScience#dataethics
On #Monday Louie Favela and Edouard Machery summarize the target article: "Investigating the concept of representation in the neural and psychological sciences."
On #Tuesday and #Thursday, Ben Baker (Colby College) and Inês Hipólito (Macquarie) will comment.
On #Wednesday and #Friday, Louie and Edouard will respond to the comments.
I usually recommend rejection when authors of a manuscript decline to
(a) report full and final sample sizes
(b) link to full dataset
(c) list reproducible exclusion criteria
(d) report the results with and without exclusions.
Why? So readers know whether the reported results depend on exclusions and/or massively reverse in excluded data.👇
My "Fourth Perspective" essay on why the basic unit of evolution is a complete life cycle, and thus an organismic agent, and why that really matters for evolutionary theory, is officially out today!
The International Society for the Philosophy of the Sciences of the Mind (ISPSM) did an amazing job in putting together this online conference!
Me and other colleagues in Latin America are putting together a symposium showing some work on emotions in the region. It's very exciting, so make sure to come and check out all other talks as well!
“The replication crisis is less of a ‘crisis’ in the Lakatosian approach than it is in the Popperian and naïve methodological falsificationism approaches”
Curiosity1: goal-directed information seeking — e.g., following a string of citations to find the source of a particular claim.
Curiosity2: exploratory information seeking — e.g., watching whatever explainer video is recommended next, even if it’s about a different question or topic.
Claude Bernard on the provisional nature of all theories. He straddles J.J.C. Smart’s (in)famous dichotomy of physics (laws) and bio (too many special cases). According to Bernard, there’s a spectrum but it’s all too complex for absolute certainty. #philsci@philbio
TLDR; there are least 4 problems with the claim that "Argument mapping is about twice as effective at improving student critical thinking as other methods".
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is now discussed (and worried about) more than ever. But is AGI really possible? What assumptions are behind the idea that it is? How plausible are they?
On May 30th, 3.30pm-5pm (CET), philosopher Mazviita Chirimuuta (Edinburgh) will discuss these and related questions here at Umeå University.
It’s often claimed that science is about accumulating knowledge. But knowledge accumulation is only one side of the scientific coin. This thread contains 10 quotes from scientists, philosophers of science, sociologists, feminists, and statisticians who’ve highlighted the importance of ignorance in science, both as a precursor and a product. Enjoy!