meanwhile in Central America, the #elnino weather system has caused significant draughts & as a result has limited the capacity of the #panama ship canal... watch out for the associated #supplychain disruption as shipments are slowed or re-directed.
Already shipping rates are rising as vessels are tied up in long queues to get through the canal.... the Q. is, if & when this feed through into consumer prices?
Or has the move to 'reshoring' lessened Europe's exposure to such disruption?
Winter is still months away, but meteorologists are already talking about a snowy winter ahead in the southern Rockies and the Sierra Nevada. They anticipate more storms in the U.S. South and Northeast, and warmer, drier conditions across the already dry Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest.
One phrase comes up repeatedly with these projections: a strong El Niño is coming.
Did this drive exactly a year ago. Last year we had to drive through floodwaters and everything was green. This year it’s very dry and there are out of control bushfires just to the west. #WeirdCar#WeirdCarMastodon#ElNino
@ZLabe now at begin of Southern Hemisphere spring with record low antarctic sea ice level more solar radiation will be absorbed as before - can we neglect this until #ElNino fades away in summer 2024 globally regarding average temperature? #climatecrisis
This crazy weather right now is mostly caused by the current El Niño period of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). That is when the equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific are much warmer than normal. Contrast this to the colder La Niña conditions of last year.
El Niño is caused when the East to West trade winds along the equator slow down, allowing warm water to build up, and preventing cool deep water from coming to the surface.
El Nino Fizzles. Planet Earth Sizzles. Why?
"The important point is that there are two large human-made climate forcings: GHGs and aerosols. The aerosol forcing is poorly understood. The magnitude of global warming during a large El Nino provides a measuring stick that can help us detect acceleration of global warming, but we need more detailed, quantitative information on aerosol effects." https://mailchi.mp/caa/el-nino-fizzles-planet-earth-sizzles-why
El Niño, a cyclical climate pattern that affects global weather every few years, arrived in June and weather forecasters say it may stick around until May 2024. While the strong hurricane season so far this year isn’t typical of El Niño, experts say that the phenomenon typically strengthens in fall and winter, bringing increased snow and rain to some places. Climate change, however, has been making predictions less reliable.
The sharp uptick in temperatures since August is mostly due to warming in polar regions, especially Antartica.
This contrasts to the warming earlier in 2023, which was broadly associated with the El Niño transition and other changes in the tropics and mid-latitudes.
Given the warmth of recent months, and the current El Niño, 2023 is now virtually certain (>99% likelihood) to become the warmest year ever directly measured.
In addition, 2023 is now very likely (90% chance) to finish at least 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above our 1850-1900 baseline.
For additional discussion and analysis related to the record-shattering temperatures in September, please refer to the Berkeley Earth temperature update.
"A wave of unusually #ExtremeHeat at the end of #SouthAmerica's winter was made 100 times more likely by #ClimateChange, according to a study published on Tuesday (Oct 10)."
"While many people have pointed to #ElNino to explain the South America #heatwave, this analysis has shown that climate change is the primary driver of the heat."
Positive IOD keeps getting stronger
"...Indian Ocean Dipole is gaining strength so quickly that it’s getting close to the record-challenging 2019 event that underpinned Australia’s warmest and driest year on record.
El Niño is here. What's El Niño and how does it matter for Alaska seasonal climate?
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and ACCAP at UAF are teaming up for an exciting webinar 11am-Noon AKDT Tuesday October 10.
Learn how small changes in equatorial Pacific ocean temperatures can influence Alaska weather and what past El Niños have played out across the state. #akwx#Climate#ElNino#UAF#Alaska
"Under a scorching sun, more than three hundred Bolivians on Friday marched to a dusty plain near the #IncachacaDam that overlooks the city of #LaPaz, gathering to pray for rain and an end to a severe drought that has threatened their water supply."
NOAA's 2023-2024 winter forecast is here. This is what Wisconsinites should expect. (www.jsonline.com)
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