Additionally, sea surface heights along the West Coast of North America (including CA) are currently ~2-4 inches higher than recent (higher) baseline (so add that to ~8 inches from global warming). This may be a temporary effect indirectly related to the strong #ElNino event. https://t.co/zzVxzFM7s3
Man-made global warming largely sets the long-term trend, but abrupt recent warming is partly due to natural variability, including the transition to a strong El Niño.
Combined with other natural and man-made factors, this has made 2023 into a record-breaking year.
Das passiert bei El Niño: Alle paar Jahre lassen die #Passatwinde nach und das warme Oberflächenwasser schwappt nach Südamerika zurück.
Dadurch kehren sich die Verhältnisse auch in der Atmosphäre um: In Indonesien bleibt der Regen aus und an der Westküste Südamerikas kommt es zu extremen Regengüssen.
Mehr zu diesem Wetterphänomen in unserem #kurzerklärt:
Le président du #Kenya William Ruto avait organisé des prières collectives pour demander de la pluie...
Ça a tellement bien marché (il s'en était d'ailleurs vanté récemment) que le pays connaît désormais ses pires inondations depuis 2006, avec des dizaines de morts et de disparus. D'autres pays comme la #Tanzanie sont également touchés.
My next live YouTube office hour: Thu, Dec 7 @ 1pm PT. Topic: The big/wet/record warm "Pineapple Express"-type #AtmosphericRiver in the Pacific Northwest this week. When might it be California's turn? Plus yet more on #ElNino. #CAwx#CAwaterhttps://t.co/Sj75CJVf0i
Prediction: This #winter will be the warmest in recorded history
Story by Eric Ralls, December 4, 2023
"Thee year 2023 has been a hallmark of climatic extremes, with scorching heatwaves during the summer and autumn raising alarm bells worldwide. As we approach winter, the looming question is whether we are on the brink of experiencing the warmest winter ever recorded.
"Prelude to an unprecedented warm winter
"The period from June to October 2023 saw the global average temperature surpassing the 1991-2020 average by a staggering 0.57℃.
"Notably, August and September broke all historical records, exceeding average temperatures by 0.62℃ and 0.69℃, respectively. These figures eclipsed the previous records set in 2016, signifying a consistent trend in #GlobalWarming."
"Until about 50 years ago, changes in solar radiation played a significant role in shaping El Niño patterns. From the 1970s onwards, however, we see clear signals that can only be attributed to the consequences of man-made climate change."
Next YouTube office hour: Thu, Nov 30 @ 1pm PT. Topic: Why have the predictive models been overestimating recent CA precipitaiton in the long range? Plus: #ElNino update: where are we now, and has anything changed re: winter expectations? #CAwx#CAwater
That's indicative of an #ElNino-enhanced NE Pacific storm track later this winter. So despite sea of reds, there are still familiar patterns that emerge when one considers spatial patterns. But it's also a powerful illustration of profound change throughout global atmosphere.
We are being lulled into a false sense of security by this ridiculously pleasant weather. #ElNino is going to come roaring along around Jan 12 with its atmospheric rivers and kick our butts. But I'm not complaining -- the California Wildrose produced a late cluster of blooms today 🤯.
Are the Bay Area's #sewage systems ready for El Niño? (short answer: No).
Last winter, treatment systems spilled tens of millions of gallons of raw/partially treated sewage into the Bay & city streets. Our executive director Sejal Choksi-Chugh said cities need to upgrade their infrastructure to solve this problem.
“And one of the ones that’s been kicking and screaming the hardest not wanting to change is, surprisingly, San Francisco,” Choksi-Chugh said.
"Somalis are struggling to cope with never-before-seen flooding that has killed dozens of people and forced hundreds of thousands to abandon their homes, in the wake of extreme rainfall that has engulfed much of East Africa. Following days of heavy torrents, at least 29 people have been killed and more than 300,000 have fled their homes...#Somalia 's National Disaster Management Agency...call[ed it] the most severe in 'decades'"
"Heavy rains caused by the #ElNino weather phenomenon has sent hundreds to shelters in the town of Ayolas in southern #Paraguay, with residents bracing for more flooding on the way. At least five neighborhoods in the town, about 186 miles (300 km) from capital Asuncion, were left under water... Some 35,000 people throughout the country were affected by the rains, according to national emergency ministry estimates..."
Bonus YouTube office hour this week (1pm PT on Fri!), and I'll keep this one simple: I'll be discussing and answering viewer questions (live!) on all things #ElNino and its potential implications for California. #CAwx#CAwaterhttps://t.co/Ra2RDKsbse
El Niño phenomenon's wrath has unleashed devastating floods in Somalia, affecting over a million people and displacing 400k. #ElNiño#Somalia
Displacement and livelihood loss from these floods have led to shortages of food, water, and sanitation, escalating the risk of waterborne diseases like malaria and cholera. #HumanitarianCrisis#Floods
International support is imperative to safeguard human rights and enhance resilience in the face of ongoing and future disasters. #Support#HumanRights
In Kashmir, Bellwether Of India’s Changing Climate, Heatwaves, Receding Glaciers, Drying Rivers, Power Cuts & Falling Harvests
Environmental damage, unregulated construction and government policies have exacerbated the effects of global warming and hit livelihoods in a region that reflects and affects subcontinental weather.
With hurricane season quieting down now, we take a quick look at the forecast this week across the U.S. More so, however, we take a deep dive into #ElNino, some of the latest developments, and assess where things stand at the moment.
"The shocking visual is prompting many to ask whether this recent surge [in #ocean heat] is evidence that human-caused heating has propelled the #climate past a #TippingPoint.
Climate scientists say the answer is likely no. Instead, it is much more probable to be ... a coincidence of natural factors piled on top of the steady trend of human-caused global heating. "
“Records will continue to fall next year, especially as the growing #ElNiño begins to take hold, exposing billions to unusual #heat,” said Andrew Pershing, vice president for science at Climate Central. “While #climate impacts are most acute in developing countries near the equator, seeing climate-fueled streaks of #ExtremeHeat in the US, India, Japan and Europe underscores that no one is safe from #ClimateChange.”
Dry weather pattern spells disaster for Samoa (www.samoaobserver.ws)
Samoa is heading towards a natural disaster if the current dry weather pattern continues because of the effect of the El Nino system.