@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

elpolacodesplegado

@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social

Studied PolSci a long time ago. Politics, Military and Science. Atheist, Institutionalist. He/him.

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. Browse more on the original instance.

Strandjunker, to random
@Strandjunker@mstdn.social avatar

Have you ever wondered why Germans didn’t do anything about Hitler? Well, the rest of the world is wondering exactly that about Americans and Trump.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@winterschon @goulien @Strandjunker They did not have to be armed. They had to not vote for the guy. Then, it was Social Democrats and Communists who refused to work together. No one prevented Hitler. Once he was in power, only outside forces could stop him. Arming a handful of townsfolk against a regular military is a futile attempt. Insurgencies only succeed with external support.

kevinrothrock, to random

Ready your anti-appeasement pitchforks, Internet mob: French President Emmanuel Macron said today that he would still consider talking with Vladimir Putin “if it helps create a sustainable peace between Ukraine and Russia.” https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-macron-peace-dialogue-dbcc7591c8b16f0532ccd6cff0f7ba75

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@kevinrothrock All G20 leaders talk to him all the time within the framework of the organization. He's usually participating via VTC.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@kevinrothrock Video Teleconference? Or because Putin is only a video playing on eternal repeat?

randahl, to Ukraine
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

I did some digging in statistics from the Kiel Institute…

🇳🇴 5 billion Norwegians have provided
EUR 8 billion in aid to Ukraine.

🇦🇺 26 billion Australians have provided
EUR 0.5 billion in aid to Ukraine.

Dear Australians, how can you sleep while the beds are burning?

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@randahl Norway has oil and gas and a direct stake in the conflict. Australia is on the other side of the planet.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@randahl How many times has Norway participated in any military activity in the Indo Pacific? They have China to worry about. Yes it is low. But singling Australia out seems odd. Might as well ask what Brazil or Malaysia are doing. Both are much larger and have more potent economies.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@randahl I am at least putting a question mark where it would concern China. Australia's main security concern. Norway has a border with Russia, but Russia is far away from any Australian core interests. Norway is helping Ukraine outstandingly, no question. But I still find the comparison strange. There are bigger, more powerful economies doing less in the immediate neighborhood that we can compare Norway against.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@VikingChieftain @randahl I did not say that there was no imperative. To me it is a question of priorities. And China is prioritized over Russia. An argument, by the way, the United States has been making to its European Allies.

Australia has been part of ISAF and OIF and God knows what else too. They have an AWACS aircraft in Europe right at this time. Yes, within AUKUS, but it is still here and not in San Diego. I am arguing that they are pulling their weight in the Indo Pacific.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@VikingChieftain @randahl As much as I am a fan of values-based foreign policy, I'm afraid that economic, domestic, regional priorities persevere. Again, there are others who are much closer and do less. At this rate, Ukraine is on course to losing this war because the West collectively did not recognize this as a war of attrition. Calling out the Aussies is not going to change that. The pivotal powers are the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Not even talking about the GOP. 1/x

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@VikingChieftain @randahl If we want to call someone out, let us not call out the continent at the end of the world. Let us keep up the pressure on those that can have a meaningful impact, because they have the appropriate industrial base. 2/2

anderspuck, to Ukraine
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

Does anyone have a qualified estimate of how many truckloads of logistics a brigade needs on a daily basis. I keep seeing people saying that will need a bridge over the Dnipro to sustain a fight, and that is also conventional doctrine for river crossings. But a single mini-ferry capable of carrying three trucks and conducting one passage per hour will transfer 72 trucks every day. How many such ferries would it take to replace a bridge?

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@anderspuck Eventually you need more than a brigade on that other side. The basic measurement for each unit would be days of supply (DoS). 3 DoS would equal x amount of ammo, fuel, food, spare parts. Technically you can supply them via helicopter and/or air drop too. The latter would be under extreme risk though. Let me see if I can find a document on DoS rates for different types of units.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@anderspuck Tried to find a quick answer. A lot of papers talking about formulas for the calculation of DoS expenditure, but they are highly dependent on troop type etc. With things ranging from water to food, ammo and fuel I guess it is properly somewhere upwards of 200 tons per day. But I'm not a logistician.

nixCraft, to random
@nixCraft@mastodon.social avatar

Truth 😅

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@honze_net @nixCraft 5. I need my own meetings, to discuss really relevant stuff (creating more meetings in the process).

noelreports, to random Dutch
@noelreports@mstdn.social avatar

After the attack on Berdyansk airport, Russian helicopters started to appear in Taganrog air base in Russia. This air base is within striking distance for ATACMS, but unlikely a target now since the US doesn't allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@noelreports At least it reduces their radius and effective time over target in Zaporizhiya Oblast.

nixCraft, to random
@nixCraft@mastodon.social avatar

How many of you are "burn a CD old"? 🤔

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@nixCraft Dual cassette tape recorder old. Auto reverse old.

anderspuck, to random
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

I think it's a mistake to underestimate the Kinzhal missile. The Patriot air defense system has proven itself capable of intercepting Kinzhal, and in a maritime context I think SM-6 would be able to do it. But these high-end air defense systems are rare.

Via @rvps2001 https://mastodon.social/@rvps2001/111271661467502739

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@anderspuck @rvps2001 But spinning that theory further: Kinzhal is rare and expensive too. It will most likely be used against very valuable targets. And high-value assets will be defended by your best systems. But you are right in that there will always be more to defend than you have systems to defens with.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@anderspuck @Paladin @rvps2001 True. But MiG-31Ks are harder to come by and have to fly at high altitude making them detectable for early warning radars. No one is taking Kinzhal lightly, but the biggest deficit in Europe is currently with Army Organic Air Defense and more run of the mill threats like helicopters and low flying jets. Ukraine is better posture in that area than any European nation.

SocraticEthics, to Ukraine
@SocraticEthics@mastodon.online avatar

‼️🇺🇦Ukraine Latest: Ukrainian Marines Crossed Dnipro River, Digging in Inland (more)
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22902

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@SocraticEthics Good luck, guys and girls.

hanse_mina, to Ukraine
@hanse_mina@nafo.uk avatar

Germany has an unprecedented export boom to Kyrgyzstan, with exports up 1400% in the first 8 months of 2023 versus the same period in 2019 (blue). But lots of these goods never make it to Kyrgyzstan, which shows far lower imports from Germany (black). This stuff goes to Russia...

https://nitter.net/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1713940485062918217

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@hanse_mina Kazakhstan too. Both countries have a free trade agreement with Russia. Often the companies exporting goods are operated by Germans immigrated from Russia.

Free_Press, to Ukraine
@Free_Press@mstdn.social avatar

Kovalenko: ammunition famine in the Russian army in Ukraine is turning into an ammunition crisis

In the fourth quarter of 2023, for the first time in the full-scale war, the number of rounds fired by Ukrainian artillery exceeded those fired by occupying Russian forces.

This shift indicates that the Russian army is experiencing a transition from an ammunition shortage to an ammunition crisis.
️

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@Free_Press Or that Ukraine is really effective at neutralizing Russian artillery.

malwaretech, (edited ) to random

I think this might actually be the first time in my life I've been more horrified by some of the left than the right. The Ukraine war came close-ish, with some factions of the left siding with Russia due to distrust of the US (which, fair enough), and then tankies apparently being confused as to whether Russia is still socialist or not. But all of that was balanced out by the right trying to undermine Ukraine funding in favor of the most stupid shit ever.

But this week a lot of leftists who support Palestine somehow stumbled past the point and went straight for glorifying one of the most horrific massacres in recent history, openly supporting Hamas, and even straight up calling for the elimination of Israel. I always thought the right had a monopoly on overt racism and unjust violence, but apparently if you substitute in words like "decolonization" you can get some of the left to go full Nazi too.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@malwaretech There is one glue that keeps all the idiots of the world together. Whether you're left or right wing, COVID denier or UFO theorist, cultist or whatnot. If you dig enough, you will always find antisemitism.

Free_Press, to news
@Free_Press@mstdn.social avatar

US Sends Hostage Rescue Experts to Israel and Puts Special Ops ‘Door Kickers’ on Alert (Exclusive)

The US troops on standby in a nearby country could include members of Delta Force or SEAL Team Six

https://themessenger.com/news/us-sends-special-operations-israel-hostage-rescue

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@Free_Press Delta you will never hear about. SEALS already have a book deal and the movie rights.

kevinrothrock, to random

Leaked internal calculations at the EU show that accession for Ukraine and others would demolish the union’s status quo: All members would pay more to and receive less from the EU budget; many current net receivers would become net contributors. 😅

https://www.ft.com/content/a8834254-b8f9-4385-b043-04c2a7cd54c8

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@kevinrothrock Which should also be the same countries lobbying the loudest for Ukranian EU accession. When Western European nations warned of this, they were info campaigned against. Especially Poland used every bit anti-German sentiment for its elections. Now they realize they may have shot themselves in the foot.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@kevinrothrock That's the point of populist politics in Poland. There's two main perpetrators who want to harm Poland in their narrative. Russia and Germany. So when Germany is heing cautious about Ukraine entering, they claim "Germany is blocking/not doing enough to help Ukraine win". Now that their agricultural sector is experiencing the effects of cheaper Ukranian grain, they change their tune. My point being: PiS only focuses on topics du jour. They are changing tune. 1/x

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@kevinrothrock @paladino I think their calculation is to remove Ukraine from the Russian influence sphere. Plus, the market will be huge for reconstruction and cheap legal labor.

elpolacodesplegado,
@elpolacodesplegado@hessen.social avatar

@kevinrothrock @paladino Depends on the political context and the speed at which it happens. They can drag it out to nit antagonize other aspiring members. Plus, Ukraine has some structural deficits it needs to address in order to join.

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