What's Normal in a Changing Arctic Climate?
Depends on your interest
"Is Updating Once a Decade Enough?
Part of the impetus for updated baseline every ten years is to keep up with the changing climate. The Arctic though is warming so fast that this once-a-decade update is not sufficient to keep up the pace of change." https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/whats-normal-in-a-changing-arctic From Rick Thoman @AlaskaWx
Climate normals and the Arctic is this week's topic for the Alaska and Arctic Climate Newsletter. What does "normal" even mean in a rapidly warming environment? Well, that probably depends on your perspective. #Arctic#ClimateChange @Climatologist49
Arctic 12-month running temperatures as the difference from the 1951-80 average, updated through April 2024. The 10-year smoothed average shows the long term trend, the 2-year average captures some of the short term variability. OISSTv2.1 courtesy of NOAA/PSL/ESRL
ERA5 courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus. #Arctic#ClimateChange#Climate @Climatologist49
A sure sign that contemporary 30-year climate normals are not keeping up with the rate of Arctic change: only one year (2021) since the early 1990s has less than half of land area in the Arctic (north of 60ºN) had annual average temperature above “normal", and eight years more than 90 percent of Arctic Lands were warmer than “normal". In an unchanging climate, this would bounce around 50% each year. #Arctic#ClimateChange
H/T @Climatologist49
Today #Russia and #China play best friends forever and #USSR had been traditionally placed in the same “communist” basked as China. Some fun facts that especially tankies are getting completely wrong today.^1
Since 1950’s China and USSR were actually conflicted over each other’s interpretations of #Marxism and in 1960’s the conflict nearly escalated into a full-scale nuclear war between the two countries.
China criticised CPSU (Communist Party of Soviet Union) over Soviet invasion of #Czechoslovakia (1968)^2 and “Brezhnev Doctrine” which denounced any Marxism version outside of the Soviet one as “reactionary” (Marxist newspeak for “heresy”). This included both Czechoslovak reforms and Mao’s Cultural Revolution in equal manner. At that time China actually developed complex relations with Eastern Bloc countries such as Romania and Czechoslovakia behind Kremlin’s back.
Essentially, everyone called each other “reactionary” and claimed their Marxism is the correct one. Any resemblance to past religious wars is entirely incidental. 😉 In 1968 Chinese diplomat Zhou Enlai speaking in Romanian embassy in Beijing called Soviets for “fascist politics, great power chauvinism, national egoism and social imperialism”.^3
Does that ring any bells? 😉
Soviets and China had a number of unresolved border issues in Manchuria. In 1968 China started escalating these, actually killing Soviet border guards. Moscow, knowing of China’s nuclear weapons and Mao’s confrontative attitude preferred to deescalate… which only encouraged Chinese.
Does that remind anything from contemporary history? 😉
At the peak of the conflict in 1969 USSR found itself in the position of a country with high-tech army challenged by a low-tech army which relied on millions of conscripts and human wave tactics.
Does this ring any bells? 😉
In 1969 Soviet army managed to push back overwhelming several Chinese offensives near the island of Zhenbao in spite of their overwhelming numbers with ratios up to 1:10 Soviet to Chinese. That was possible primarily due to the technical advantage, such as then-advanced T-62 tanks.
A ceasefire was signed in 1969 - on Chinese side by the very same Zhou Enlai who called Soviets “fascists” only a year before, but the actual peace agreement was only signed in 1991. The conflict was only completely resolved in 2008 (!) when Russia ceded 340 km² of the disputed lands to China.
As you can see, contrary to the mythology carefully constructed by modern “geopolitical realists”, there’s nothing constant in Russian or Soviet policies. Russia can not always win armed conflicts, it can cede territories and in general conflicts can be won in spite of imbalance of power. Oh, and calling others “fascists” was used by everyone and Russia was both an user and a recipient of this nomination.
@awi 's EM-Bird can measure sea ice thickness from a helicopter: today Janna from our group learned to operate the instrument over the Jade Bight (North Sea). Great weather, but sadly, 0 cm sea ice! 😉
Rain Comes to the Arctic, With a Cascade of Troubling Changes
Rain used to be rare in the Arctic, but as the region warms, so-called rain-on-snow events are becoming more common. The rains accelerate ice loss, trigger flooding, landslides, and avalanches, and create problems for wildlife and the Indigenous people who depend on them
If you saw my post with the stamp of the rock form known as “The Pants”, here is a photo of a Polar Bear dwarfed by it, seen through its legs. I had the wrong lens on and couldn’t get a photo of the entire formation and bear. #Nunavut#Arctic#LandscapePhotography#WildlifePhotography#PolarBear
Sea ice extent in the Bering Sea remains close to 1991-2020 median in NSIDC data. Large areas of open water north of the ice edge are normal this time of year. The lack of any significant areas of lower concentration ice in the southern Chukchi Sea is unusual for this point in the Spring. #akwx#Arctic#SeaIce#Climate @Climatologist49@ZLabe
Sea surface temperatures departures from the 1991-2020 average around Alaska for the week ending May 10, 2024. Northern Bering Sea mostly below normal and partially sea ice influenced. Eastern Gulf of Alaska warmer than average. Data from OISSTv2.1 courtesy of NOAA/PSL/ESRL. #SST#akwx#Arctic
The nuclear legacy of the Russian Arctic
"The nuclear legacy in the north-west of Russia includes the building of a former military base in Andreyeva Bay, spent nuclear fuel from nuclear submarines, sunken nuclear and radiation hazardous objects at the bottom of the Arctic sea" https://bellona.org/publication/nuclear-legacy-arctic#Arctic#Cryosphere#Nuclear#Russia
Today my solar power grant for the cabin was deposited in my account. And my system ordered. Now to wait for sealift. Excited and intimidated over this part of the project. #Nunavut#Arctic#CabinLife.
So, this was released today. My third stamp with Canada Post. Qarlinngua (The pants). And technically my second stamp with a family member in it, as the tiny figure in it is my son Travis. Now for one with Hilary in it.
I’ve very proud of all of these, beyond the cache. They are about my home, and family. And also my family has a long history with the Post Office, 101 years. My grandfather, father, and brother were all postmasters in Roblin. #Nunavut#Arctic#Stamps#philately#CanadaPost