Gotta say, folks, I'm not liking the surge in COVID reported by wastewater numbers.
Especially with my husband flying up to Wellington on a business trip to Catalyst for the first time in ages. 😬
We have masks and Flo Travel spray and probiotic lozenges, but we don't have robust public health measures or clean air infrastructure, not even in hospitals.
@whn just released this excellent 3 page flyer for #healthcare on the Airborne Paradigm Shift of disease, please share, there is a print-friendly version as well and many translations, at:
🔸WHO now admits the COVID virus and other germs spread “through the air.” #CovidIsAirborne
🔸A Fight About Viruses in the Air Is Finally Over. Now It’s Time for Healthy Venting #CleanTheAir
Fighting an invisible illness: The curse of Long COVID. By Milanda Rout
"Exhaustion, erratic heartbeat, brain fog, pain: women aged 31 to 45 are contracting Long COVID in greater numbers than any other part of the population. Why?"
@DenisCOVIDinfoguy@auscovid19 Again, I ask, why aren't these people also screaming that we need to clean indoor air and that we should encourage everyone to wear masks!! How are they ok being reinfected and having worsening symptoms again and again?! The disconnect is astounding...
We once proudly implemented the best pandemic response in the world.
Because we followed the science.
Because we cared about each other.
Because we communicated clearly the problems and strategies.
How far we've fallen.
How stubbornly our leaders refuse to acknowledge and adapt to reality.
How many lives, how many people's health will we sacrifice for this nostalgia of 2019?
As @seawall said earlier,
We could have it so much better.
JN.1 and JN.1.4 stil dominate the leaderboard, but scientists are especially watching a groiup of new mutations including JN.1.18, JN.1.13, KP.2, JN.1.16, and KQ.1.: https://ibb.co/6RvHcZR
Some of these are moving FAST despite the already-very-fast mutations on the landscape.
Wastewater
We've reached a level of SARS2 material in wastewater low enough to match previous years (2020, 2021.): https://ibb.co/DMyG0k4
CDC
Quite a lot of counties with new hospital admits, especially the Western half of the State. The Southwest corner by Greene Co and from Centre on over to Erie Co and Jefferson are HIGH on the newest chart.: https://ibb.co/m6KYR0Z
The Inpatient Beds chart looks good except for some increases in Lawrence and around Cameron Cos.: https://ibb.co/SPm1wJt
The ICU bed chart looks very good! Most counties are having decreases! However some increases up by Pike Co and significant increases in Franklin and Fulton Cos.:https://ibb.co/sKdK54P
Research
Tuberculosis after recovering from COVID-19 is becoming more common.: https://ibb.co/ZxZ7kHY
Reactivation of underlying pathogens is NOT NEW. We know this factually from the chicken pox/shingles pathogen.
Also, measles is known to reset the ENTIRE immune system and bring protection from everything down to zero, potentially leaving reactivation of underlying pathogens, which is by levels of magnitude more complex than the physical disability it can cause and makes it imperative that you VACCINATE YOUR KIDS.: https://ibb.co/cbFXrRw
Again: NONE of this is brand new, and COVID19 along with other known pathogens, seems to potentially weaken the immune system enough to reactivate underlying pathogens.
Non-SARS2 Pathogens
COVID and RSV thankfully have been downgraded on WastewaterSCAN to "Medium" and "low" respectively.: https://ibb.co/k2SpgLR
However, quite a number of pathogens are still ranking in the HIGH level: FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) and the gastro pathogens Norovirus and Rotavirus are still out there.
HMPV often presents with a rash and is related to RSV:
The prevention for all these respiratory diseses is the same!
Be conscious of crowds.
Wear a mask in places with low air filtration.
Keep the air clean!
Stay home if you are sick!
For norovirus and rotavirus, it's important to wash hands with soap and warm water for 20sec.
:ms_arrow_right: DO NOT depend on gloves and hand sanitizer to control Norovirus, the particles are very resistant to alcohol.
H5N1
Nothing above here has scientists sitting up at attention right now except one thing: H5N1 bird flu.
H5N1 has jumped to dairy cattle (after infecting numerous other species such as seals, fox, deer, etc.), has been found in cattle in TX, KS, MI, NM, and now Idaho.: https://ibb.co/1JgGY2v
Before now, almost all transmission was bird-to-other-species. "Cow-to-cow transmission cannot be ruled out" and will be a disaster for the food supply if not controlled.: https://ibb.co/mDKVZ7R
There is resistance amongst dairy farmers in the US and in Europe to get their cattle tested.
The absolute worst case scenario is if it "makes the leap" to pigs. That means, if genetically it mutates (like COVID-19 is doing) to be able to:
---Infect pigs.
---Gain capability of pig-to-pig transmission.
The genetic "leap" from bird to mammals was very large, and will also be the "leap" from cattle to pig.....but the "leap" from pigs and ferrets to humans after that will be really, really small.
This would be the same route the Spanish Flu took 106 years ago: Birds -> pigs -> humans.
It is...really not a good time to consume unpasteurized, raw dairy products.
:ms_arrow_right: I'm spending a lot of words on this because so far, this thing has a 50% kill rate**. That is, 1 out of every 2 people who contract H5N1 will die.
I don't know what else to say. We MUST push for thorough farm testing, biosecurity, and intense transmission research.
Stay safe, I hope you had a GREAT holiday, and don't forget to use some form of source control in your daily adventures! 💐
Made some updates to my covid awareness and advocacy site on the homepage https://the-maskers-comic.yolasite.com , trying to get the words and information in there just right to match and address the current vibes out there... but it is still like a message in a bottle that I am not sure anyone will find, read, and take to heart in a way that would connect us all again. Feel free to give feedback.
On can-kicking the problem via manufactured consent and victim-blaming, vs. real and lasting solutions in intersectionality and the curb-cut effect. #WearAMask and #CleanTheAir because #CovidIsNotOver , because all illnesses just suck and most are preventable with just those two steps, because we all deserve to be safe and to belong.
I just watched this @whn Safe Business Spotlight on a karate dojo and.. I knew it could be done! They have great mitigations AND it's caused an increase in business. This is the way! https://youtu.be/8FmPqEPa2QI?si=Fj3SXRPRlRcAuWRe
JN.1.11 has totally fizzled out (that's the difference between how it looks in a lab compared to actual infectivity) but there is a new variant that is being VERY closely scoured for by geneticists: JN.1.23 (that's JN One Dot Twenty-Three.)
This variant has an absolutely astounding ACE2Binding ability (which means it's easier to "stick" to lungs) + very good escape rate (which means it looks different than anything else before it and the body isn't sure how to react to it).: https://ibb.co/B45zX5B
It has already been found on 3 continents (South America/Brazil, North America/California, and Asia/India) and also in Canada/Alberta. it's now being tracked on Rajnarayanan's Tableau chart for the US.: https://ibb.co/xMwRyyC
This also has so much binding ability, it has the most potential to even "spend" some of its infectivity on other mutations that will benefit its children, sacrificing it for more severity or more innate infectivity....which would be very bad.
The good news is that this variant has only 2 differences between it and what we're already dealing with. Despite the very good ACE2 binding, XBB.1.5 vaccines and prior infections with JN.1 should hold against it at least a little while.: https://ibb.co/42D30fZ
(Note: don't get infected to prevent infection. That's silly. There's NO sure way to know if you were infected with JN.1 unless you get your case sequenced. Get vaccinated and use source control. That's smart and NOT silly.)
Wastewater
Wastewater SARS2 material is rising in the US again. Not a good sign.: https://ibb.co/DGx889k
Regionally, all regions except the West are starting to tick upwards again.: https://ibb.co/dtKpRsK
In PA, the 5 stations that report to Biobot are showing very volatile elves, but Chester, Lackawanna, Luzerne, and MontCo are handling it. :canparrot: GOOD GOING. Source control keeps those numbers down!!!: https://ibb.co/JxZX7YC
BucksCo is on an uptick, now above national averages. Please be cautious and keep working at it for Spring!!! 💐
The PA DoH Wastewater dashboard reflects these rising levels, with levels especially rising in Monroe County. PLEASE USE SOURCE CONTROL. Wear a quality respirator, clean the air with MERV-13 or HEPA filters, and STAY HOME if you are sick!: https://ibb.co/DwtcNgd
Year-Over-Year
Want to remind everyone that this year has the highest national wastewater numbers of all COVID years at this time.: https://ibb.co/WP98zxT
(I changed the color of the 2024 year because the original color used to represent it was...pretty unseeable.)
MORE people are getting infected/reinfected more quickly, and you can see the general trend is for the absolute baseline rising throughout the year.
This is in addition to, on WastewaterSCAN, high levels of other respiratory pathogens like RSV, FluA and FluB and the gastro-disturbing (and just gross) Norovirus.: https://ibb.co/ggyxfBt
Wash hands to prevent especially non SARS pathogens.
🌊👍🌊
Wash fruits and veg too before you eat them!
🌊🍎🥒🌊
Guys, this is us on our way to a high tide that will never drop IF we don't use source control.
But if we do, we can prevent life, learning, and financial loss going into spring and have a LOVELY and healthy new season soon! 💐
I am pretty certain that Far UVC light kills viruses like SARS. What I can’t find out is what kinds of light would work in homes, as well as how best to use them. Many commercially available UVC lights are meant to be used in rooms WITHOUT people in them, to quickly clean the air. That’s fine to clean a room, but as soon as people come back in, you have the same problem — people breathing.
We have carpenters and painters in the house this week. I have a CR box and two HEPA filters going, with windows cracked open, even though it's 0C today. This is the bare minimum to keep the air safe. I have not yet been in a workplace that does the same.
"Attempting to protect yourself from airborne viruses in a world with zero airborne infection control is as effective as trying to avoid cholera in a world without clean public water. Worth doing? Yes. Carries great financial and social cost and still won’t fully protect you? Also yes.
This is not 1824. It is 2024. We have the technology and knowledge to mitigate disease spread." #Covid19#CovidIsNotOver#CleanTheAir https://www.thegauntlet.news/p/institutional-covid-denial-has-killed
Thinking I would like to go spend an hour or two somewhere out of the house, nice and cool indoors because it's hot today, with some tea, snacks, and a book...
Buuuuut post-holiday COVID cases are what they are, sooooo I guess instead I'll get takeaway and find somewhere in the shade to park my car. 🙃
In PA,, a little slower pace but it's still at over 28% of leaderboard share.: https://ibb.co/sCmQtbH
In NY/NJ, JN.1 at over 45% of share and this is only going to go up when kids go back to school.: https://ibb.co/DkJbCXs
Please take this highly evasive, transmissible variant seriously. The latest XBB vaccine will help sorta-ok-marginally against severe disease and health care system strain but this variant is many, many mutations away from anything we currently have, so source control is best.
Wear a quality RESPIRATOR. This is increasingly VITAL as it gets colder, making leaving windows open less ideal.
Nationally, most of the contiguous States are at VERY HIGH levels. We in PA are in more moderate levels of SARS2 spread and it will be more important than ever to practice source control against JN.1 to maintan this. It will prevent straining health care systems from not only increasing FluA, FluB, etc. but also people that just didn't care to get vaccinated.: https://ibb.co/RCYyNY3
Please get the XBB version ASAP if you didn't get one.
In PA, numbers match national levels so there's no real difference here. The last 2 weeks are shaded grey as they are incomplete, so the massive dropoff in wastewater on the end there is not due to declining levels but rather data gap.: https://ibb.co/FJK3BxN
PLEASE NOTE that we are in the midst of the SECOND largest increase in wastewater SARS2 material, and even if cases aren't reflecting this in data, those cases are still out there.
Try to go virtual if you can. Crack open a window. Practice SOME form of source control until the Spring!
If we all work together we can prevent life, learning, and finanical fallout in the next few months! :canparrot: :canparrot: :canparrot:
Stay safe from COVID and also that wacky storm coming our way tomorrow! ❄️❄️❄️
In NY/NJ, JN.1 has ALREADY reached 40% of random sequencing 👀 and that was before 100,000 people hung out together unmasked in Times Square. 😓: https://ibb.co/ZhghSmQ
The closest new competitor to JN.1 is GE.1.2.1, a descendant of XBB.2.3, but it still falls a bit short of JN.1'a relative growth rate. JN.1.1.1 also falls a bit short but is still so fast it warrants monitoring.: https://ibb.co/9Yhn37n
This NOWCAST was from two weeks ago, so should be updated this Friday. You can see the absolutely explosive rate of JN.1's growth.: https://ibb.co/0qYtpB1
We will know how much of a surge it will cause once it hits 50% share of national sequencing, after which hosiptals and other care centers could experience strain.
DON'T CONTRIBUTE TO THIS.
Wear a respirator.
Keep the air clean.
CDC
You can see on the CDC At-A-Glance graphic, we're heading (not unexpectedly) in the wrong way after the holday season.: https://ibb.co/61yR8Jk
Emergency Department visits rising along most populous/coastal/border States.: https://ibb.co/QYzSJM6
Most Eastern states and metro areas in most other States have substantially increased in new hospital admits.: https://ibb.co/3CHBpQb
Don't let this get worse, folks. Wear a quality respirator. Stay home. test and retest. Keep the air clean!
The old coal region including and west of Schuylkill south toward the MD border is holding steady.
Tioga and the southwest corner is still hoiding out there, doing OK with numbers reducing.
Inpatient Beds holding steady and actually decreasing through msot of the state with some rising around Easton, around CentreCo. and up by Potter Co.: https://ibb.co/dW26YRs
ICU bed use reducing in a lot of areas but increasing significantly in Huntigdon, Mifflin and Juniata Cos.: https://ibb.co/wsc4jmp
More states are experiencing increases in deaths over a 3-month period. This is very much caused in part by refusal to take latest vaccinations causing waning immunity.: https://ibb.co/Sf3rk0K
4% of deaths in PA in the past week were from COVID. GO GET XBB VACCINATED.
With an increase of caution now we can prevent fallout in the health system in the next month or two! 😷😷😷😷😷
I hope to see you all at the @whn December 31st virtual New Year’s Eve celebration for an afternoon of games, social connection, interactive discussions about what’s next in 2024 and much more.