I was at #Chicago Pride all weekend while visiting with my wife (videos and photos soon!), so I missed this #Tesla Drama concerning #FSDBeta that erupted.
Ok.
Let us, again, all put on our #SystemsSafety hats and take a look at the situation here as I understand it.
Below is the video that kicked the beehive between Tesla defenders and detractors on "what really happened?".
This clearly chaotic video was taken from a larger drive sequence in which FSD Beta was active.
The video above was extracted from the Tweet shown below.
If you do not know the players involved here...
Ross Gerber is the individual driving this #Tesla vehicle. Ross is an ardent Tesla supporter, Tesla investor and a prominent voice within the Tesla Community.
Dan O'Dowd is the individual in the passenger seat. Dan is the creator of The Dawn Project which primarily targets Tesla's #FSDBeta program in terms of what it perceives as its public safety issues.
First off, one really has to "love" the placement of the mobile device charging pads in this #Tesla vehicle - a vehicle which is unvalidated as it pertains to being equipped with a highly-complex automated driving system, no less.
The placement of these pads ensure maximum driver inattentiveness to the roadway and to the dynamic driving task.
This is not a "side issue". The #HumanFactors components are an integral part of the human-machine system in terms of a validation process.
Here is the Hard Truth about #automotive software.
If itโฆ
Looks like this; and
Has apps like this; and
Has pop-up notifications like this; and
Has widgets like this; and
Has distracting color palettes like this; and
Has small font sizes like this; and
Entertains people like thisโฆ
it is unsafe.
Full stop.
I could care less what consumers want. Consumers cannot appreciate systems safety. Regulators and systems safety experts should be making the calls.
This โEnhanced #CarPlayโ product is a massive step in the wrong direction and it should be disallowed.
And do not get me started on #Teslaโs software or that of several up-and-coming Chinese #EV brands.
YouTube is stuffed full with human drivers messing around with their touchscreens (e.g. messing around with rows and rows of settings, checking efficiency charts, karaoke lyrics on the screen) **for miles **while their vehicles are in motion.
Let's explore why a system capable of partial driving automation (like FSD Beta) and automated driving systems more broadly are decidedly not at all like ChatGPT.
An automated driving system is a physical, safety-critical system.
Although ChatGPT does have some emerging, worrisome public safety components... the totality of the systems safety components for a physical, safety-critical system cannot be fully expressed in software alone.
That means that the failure modes analyses and validation traits will be drastically different.
These vehicles are uniquely dangerous across all other makes and models (for the moment) given the possible presence of this system.
#FSDBeta has no underlying systems safety foundation.
And I say "for the moment" because, so far, #Tesla is being rewarded handsomely by the combination of a complete lack of auto regulations in the US and their own wrongdoings.
The free market dictates that other automakers are soon to follow.
Here we have another #Tesla#FSDBeta clip showing some highly-questionable automated vehicle behavior (the automated vehicle proceeds through a marked crosswalk where a pedestrian has already entered).
Let's put our #SystemsSafety caps on and take a look here...
Taking a break from #Musk's Hate Train on the Hellsite to recall this series of Tweets from a few years ago.
While under-appreciated then and now, the Tweet thread by Musk posted below contains an extremely damning #SystemsSafety admission and it displays the considerable #PublicSafety blind spot associated with remotely updating #SafetyCritical systems without oversight.
Musk has no clue what he admitted to here, but systems safety experts do.
But a potentially deadly situation when CM visibility is lost with a #SafetyCritical system like a car!
In that Tweet, Musk is hand-waving #Tesla's responsibilities in maintaining CM (and a validation process to match) as an "impossibility".
It is not impossible.
It is inherently costly and complex and it will substantially reduce Tesla's flexibility in changing vehicle hardware on-the-fly - an oft-cited competitive advantage.
The last Tweet in that thread was written by Musk a little over 13 hours after "the issues" were discovered when the second Tweet was published.
For #SafetyCritical systems of this complexity, no matter how many people are on the team, no matter how talented the people are on the team, there is zero chance that the "10.3.1" point update was actually validated.
There simply is not enough wall clock time.
Musk and #Tesla just tossed it out, like if they were shipping a video game update.
Ok. So recently, #Tesla had published an "Impact Report" which contained a slide presenting some "data" that their #Autopilot and #FSDBeta products "enhance safety".
And one article and one Twitter thread caught my eye in scrutinizing these numbers.
While the analyses and arguments in this article and thread are not necessarily wrong, there are more fundamental issues here that need to be surfaced in my view... so let's take a look.
Two-sides constantly at war - generally over the stock price.
And it is also a topic that is surrounded by laypeople that are not competent in #SafetyCritical systems - so fundamental concepts are often immediately lost.
Totally expected.
Safety-critical systems are an oftentimes very niche and inherently complex topic.
For the pro-Tesla camp, "data", any data, is desperately sought to punch back against critics of Tesla's safety culture.
@adamjcook They do. That's caused a huge ruckus over here. Cars are downgraded stars if they don't have the latest "safety systems" such as LKAS, AEB and more fitted. Cars that got 5 stars a few years ago look to be unsafe now as they get 1-3 stars when not fitted with all the tech (that doesn't work but that's by the by). However, structurally (which is all NCAP used to worry about) they are the same and just as strong and safe.
@adamjcook That's one of the worst things about modern Twitter, isn't it? You never know if it's broke, or an intentional change. It's such an unstable platform now.
@adamjcook I assume that this is intentional. In recent months, access has become more and more restrictive anyway. Most recently, the search function or clicking on hashtags was made impossible for visitors without an account.
So this is just the next logical step, as I suspect that they want to force people with all their might to create an account.
Strongly suspect that the numbers are now collapsing and the advertisers urgently demand better account statistics.
So, if it was not the case before, now that #Twitter seems to be walled off for good...
How can the #NWS and, say, The White House (as a two random examples) continue to remain solely on social media platforms that are inaccessible to millions of unregistered users?
Those exclusively on the #Fediverse, an open platform, are being actively denied public services, official policy announcements and timely emergency alerts.
At minimum, #Detroit needs a train between the Detroit Metro Airport and Downtown.
Come on now.
This was last weekend.
Waited over 2 hours for a bus at the airport.
I am patient, but this should not happen.
Bus service cannot hope to (even remotely) satisfy a region the size of the Detroit Metro.
It simply cannot.
Not sure how many are coming in out-of-town for the #GrandPrix this weekend, but the #NFL Draft next year is going to be a disaster from a transportation perspective.
@adamjcook Can you deliver this same message to the Pittsburgh area please? Those of us living in the area are exhausted from being shouted down by those that go no where and want to live in the 19th century.
@adamjcook The Grand Prix isn't going to be a problem - it just doesn't draw that kind of massive out-of-town crowds - but the draft is going to be a mess in terms of transit and hotel space.
If I see Secretary #Buttigieg do another interview where he pontificates with the press about the wisdom of #Tesla's #Autopilot product name... I might just lose it.
We are far beyond that now in outsized vehicle design dangers - and far beyond just Tesla's wrongdoings anymore (although Tesla's wrongdoings do remain somewhat unique and extreme).
Secretary Buttigieg is still putzing around on a field that is nearly a decade old at this point.
Only the illusion of a difference yielded by the presence of a poorly-understood (by the general public), opaque automated driving system.
#Automation, when paired with a human, is inherently dangerous.
Many believe that any kind of automation, sprinkled on top of a car, will automatically and definitely make the combined human-machine system โsaferโ.
Nothing can be further from the truth.
We can look to Autopilot in commercial aircraft as a contrasting example.
If your #NHTSA investigators are still wondering, after years of twiddling their thumbs, why #Autopilot-active, #Tesla vehicles keep slamming into the back of roadside emergency vehiclesโฆ I just provided you with the answer.
I do not recall an open letter with thousands of prominent signatories, a hastily-assembled White House Task Force and a big Senate hearing for automated driving systems.
You know... #SafetyCritical systems that are masquerading as #AI that have killed people and have the capacity to readily cause immediate injury and death.
We have an unregulated Wild West out there on that.
@Craktok The #NHTSA, the federal car safety regulator, actually has some pretty broad powers, in theory.
But decades of subservience to automakers have eroded their independence, competence and credibility.
The NHTSA has only had a whole 3 months with a permanent administrator during #Bidenโs term.
The White House could have made some powerful moves, without Congress, to significantly rein in this Wild Westโฆ but they have not, across three different administrations now.
@Craktok Even the #FTC, being today probably the most robust it has even been in recent memory, refuses to rein in clear-cut, deceptive advertising that allows consumers to dangerously think their automated vehicles are more capable than they are.
This is a story about #manufacturing competitiveness in the US.
About the Manufacturing USA initiative.
About the MxD innovation center in #Chicago (formerly known as DMDII).
And, about my frustrations that have festered for some time.
Out of respect for some of the people that I know personally that were employed there (who I will not name), this is a story that I had kept to myself for some time.
But now it is time to share, for a variety of reasons.