peteriskrisjanis

kravietz, 3 months ago to Russia

After we had a very interesting discussion with @AdeptVeritatis on modeling the #Russia #Ukraine war from economic perspective, I declare to write about the model by Peter Turchin.

Turchin is a scientist working in the area of complex systems, which in the past gained some publicity as “chaos theory” - modeling systems so complex internally that their states are usually only described in statistical terms and their behaviour is described as “chaotical”, even when it really isn’t. Such as societies, economies, political systems etc. In 2020 Turchin made some fame when people dug up his 2010 prediction that in a decade US may be hit by a wave of large civil unrests. He came to this conclusion based on modeling a combination of numerous economic and social factors which seemed to converge to a state usually resulting in unrest.^1

Turchin has been also attempting to model the war started by Russia and his team created a mathematical model that includes economic (military industry output) and demographic parameters (number of soldiers).^2 The model has evolved over the last two years but the latest version is probably best described, including its limitations, by this article^3. I was surprised to see people like MacGregor and Ritter quoted there, but Turchin seems to use them as the proponents of the most possibly cynical scenario for the purpose of modeling. But if you read the whole model description, which I encourage everyone to do, Turchin’s assumptions are quite impartial and as realistic as a simplified model can be.

The baseline scenario is quite pessimistic: to make the long story short, Russia has economy and population so large that it will simply not deplete before Ukraine’s does. That’s as cynical as it can be, and as a matter of fact this is the core argument Russians are always raising: they’re just too big to lose and therefore they always win.

However, Turchin also looks at alternative scenario where Ukraine’s economy (represented by ammunition production rate) is really equivalent to the whole EU and US, in which case the roles reverse.

The model in theory should not be interpreted as a real-world forecast, as clearly stated in the article’s disclaimer. But you really can’t not do it, because all the time it refers to actual numbers of actual people.

The primary issue I have with it is the inconsistency of the predicted human losses with reality: Ukraine’s losses after two years reach almost 300’000 while Russian are 3x less. This, if anything, is the opposite of real estimates.

The secret really lies in two factors: the number of shells fired (function of economy) and the “casualties per shot”, which is kind of arbitrary and set to 1/30. The number is, again, kind of estimated based on real Russian loses, but then, on page 8, there’s a key phrase “I set d2 = d1”. This try statement essentially assumes that Russian losses per shell are the same as Ukrainian.

If you try to play with these parameters in the live model^2 you can actually get losses modelled closer to the real estimates. Of course, this model’s deficiency is prominently mentioned by Turchin in the article. The primary Turchin’s conclusion from the model’s outputs seems to be that the critical condition for Ukraine’s victory is economical and industrial support of its allies. Which was only days ago sadly demonstrated by evacuation of Avdiivka.

I would add that the losses ratio is also a critical parameter, because while Russia may have population 4x larger than Ukraine, losses at ratio 1:13 (confirmed armour losses) or 1:7 (declared by Ukraine) aren’t sustainable even for Russia. Which clearly hints that any strategy that incurs such losses at Russia is preferable, which most likely implies a defensive strategy.

Also, in terms of model’s parameters, as Turchin himself notes, human losses suffer from very high uncertainty as both sides actively obscure them. At the same time, OSINT provides equipment losses which were in the past confirmed to cover up to 80% the actual losses, which could make the case for further improvement of the model’s output.

gwynnion, 3 months ago to random

Ironically, one of the reasons LLMs and other systems fail is because they're not sufficiently machinelike. Their creators aspire to some form of generalized intelligence that is not actually happening and substitute bullshit in its place.

For example, a LLM posed with a math question could punt it into a standard calculator subprocess, but it doesn't do that at all and instead produces an answer that "sounds" right as text prediction but is often totally irrelevant.

halva, 3 months ago to random

HOT TAKE

FRONT END DEVELOPERS SHOULD BE BANNED FROM USING THEIR HARDWARE FOR A MONTH EACH YEAR AND INSTEAD GIVEN A LOW END 10 YEARS OLD NETBOOK

GottaLaff, 3 months ago (edited 3 months ago) to random

🔥 #BREAKING #Trump 1/...

#WOMPWOMP #WOMPAGE

via Pagliery!

Breaking news, first
@thedailybeast

Donald Trump has been hit with a massive one-two punch in his bank fraud case.

He owes $372 million for lying—and he can't borrow money from any New York bank, frustrating his ability to appeal the judgment.

GottaLaff, 3 months ago to random

Not from The Onion. For realsies…

Via Acyn:

“So Donald #Trump sent out a fundraising pitch that reads, Dear Melania I love you. Even after every single indictment, arrest, and witch hunt, you never left my side”

mastodonmigration, 3 months ago to random

So, not content with a hundred similar articles this week, the New York Times seems to think that Biden's age continues to be a more important issue than the other presidential candidate encouraging Russia to attack Europe if they don't pay up.

Here is a screenshot of the current front page. Note the order, the lack of a teaser and diminished font size for the Trump headline. This is how they try to manipulate the public.

Seriously stop it with this BS news-sculpting nonsense New York Times.

skaly, 3 months ago (edited 3 months ago) to random

Should I blog?
If yes, via Patreon for free and paid members (https://www.patreon.com/join/Skaly)
I'll be writing about:
◾#Music, art and philosophy, including AI thoughts
◾Israeli Jew living through the conflict
◾Gender and biological sex, very alternative views about trans and non-binary ideas and societal issues (I'm non-binary)
◾ #Mentalhealth, neurodiversity, healing, strengthening, thriving with the different abilities and disabilities (ADHD, NVLD, OCD, PTSD)
◾Left and right, social criticism

gamingonlinux, 3 months ago to random

Also on Threads too babes: https://www.threads.net/@gaming0nlinux

GottaLaff, 3 months ago to random

Via Meidas Touch:

#Biden outperforms polls and wins with over 96% of the vote in South Carolina.

NYT: “an uncertain measure of wider enthusiasm…”

#Trump underperforms polls and wins with just 54% of the vote in New Hampshire.

NYT: “made history” “builds on his momentum”

thomasfuchs, 3 months ago to random

"Hmm, people say our search results are getting worse and there's too much AI garbage, what should we do?"
"Cut the cache."
"But won't that make it even worse...?"
"CUT. THE. CACHE."
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/02/google-search-kills-off-cached-webpages/

atomicpoet, 3 months ago (edited 3 months ago) to random

Regarding the Taylor Swift “controversy”:

This is how the cycle goes. The right wing manufactures a crisis. The left wing analyzes it. And while the left wing is busy analyzing, the right wing rolls out their next crisis.

Tengrain, 3 months ago to random

For every chud coming into my timeline to explain that they are voting 3rd party to send a message and/or burn it all down, all I can do is remind you that you already sent that message in 2016.

How did your strategy work out for you?

peteriskrisjanis, 3 months ago to random Latvian

Hey_Beth, 4 months ago to random

deleted_by_author

skykiss, 4 months ago to random

Not one republican has the courage to call #Trump what he is, and "will likely nominate a soon-to-be convicted felon who can't vote or possess firearms and who has been lawfully found by a civil federal jury to be a rapist. The issue will be if he remains free for the entire campaign."

Their leader is a rapist who stole and #concealed #National #Defense #documents and has been charged with these crimes under the #Espionage Act.

Americans, do you accept this?

Register and vote for President Biden.

#vote

jynersolives, 4 months ago to random

deleted_by_author

skykiss, 4 months ago to iowa

Where are my election denier, traitors of America?
Oh, #Iowa there you are. #Iowans voting, writing their candidate’s name on a piece of paper, throwing it into the paper bag to be tallied.

Same group of republicans who run around screaming "omg election fraud omg" voting via a goddamn paper bag.

Iowans support rapist, insurrectionist charged with 91 felonies, including under Espionage Act.

#IowaSupportsRapist

Iowans support rapist, insurrectionist charged with 91 felonies, including under Espionage Act by throwing votes in unsecured paper bag.

Daojoan, 4 months ago to random

"Inevitable People" is absolute top shelf premium limited edition wank (h/t to @vcbrags)

GottaLaff, 4 months ago to random

It's a cult.

You ask, don't they see who he is?

Yes, they do. THEY. DON'T. CARE. He speaks for them. They want what he wants, despite his "approach."

Via Rachel Scott:

#Trump supporters packing his event today despite the brutal cold.

I asked several supporters if the bitter weather will impact turnout.

“I would walk over shattered glass for Donald Trump,” one woman told me.

JoshuaHolland, 4 months ago to random

The polling industry's probs get far more attention than sloppy reporting on and analysis of the polls.

The DMR says #Trump's support "dipped" by 3 in IA since their last poll, #Haley's taken 2nd , #DeSantis has "fallen" by 3, etc. But the poll has a MOE of +/- 3.7, so these aren't factual statements!

The incentive here is obvious. 'Everything looks pretty much the same as it did in out previous poll' doesn't make for an interesting horse race.

#polling #election2024
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2024/01/13/iowa-poll-nikki-haley-leads-ron-desantis-ahead-of-republican-caucus-night-big-lead-for-donald-trump/72216523007/

GottaLaff, 4 months ago to legal

Starting a NEW THREAD🧵 here. 1/...

Again, I won't reply to you while live-posting multiple accounts.

#Trump #NewYork #legal

Lisa Rubin:

Alina Habba, prowling the well of the courtroom, said this case started before Tish James was elected, pointing at AG. Engoron reminds her to stick to the facts, which she says she is trying to do, but that James’s conduct is part of the factual record.