davidho, to Futurology
@davidho@mastodon.world avatar

Happy new year! Some for 2023:

  1. Fossil fuel CO₂ emissions will hit all time high.

  2. It’ll be the warmest year in the instrumental record.

  3. Rishi Sunak will still be UK Prime Minister.

  4. China will not invade Taiwan.

  5. Crypto will still be bullshit.

  6. We’ll not colonize Mars.

  7. People will finally realize that kale doesn’t taste good.

  8. Twitter will still be around.

  9. More money than ever will be invested in CO₂ removal ().

  10. Dogs and cats will be friends.

toddalstrom, to lemmy
@toddalstrom@mastodon.social avatar

Looks like the has been widely used by the and communities for years, but now it's slowly being co-opted (including by staff) to refer to the of .

I predict a complete takeover of the , and term in general, before the end of 2024.

LateNightLinux, to linux
@LateNightLinux@mastodon.cloud avatar

It’s that time of year where we look back at our 2023 predictions, and make some new ones for 2024.

https://latenightlinux.com/late-night-linux-episode-262/

Theeo123, to climate
@Theeo123@mastodon.social avatar

https://www.sciencealert.com/40-years-ago-the-epa-made-a-grim-prediction-it-came-true

40 years ago today, the EPA presented it's findings on Climate Change, the Results were Grimm. They were ignored, and sadly have proven fairly accurate.

danmcquillan, to ai
@danmcquillan@kolektiva.social avatar

If you dig deep enough, the application of predictive analytics and machine learning to social issues such as child protection[1], gender-based violence[2] & mental health[3] always comes back to cuts and austerity. Fund services, not algorithmic states of exception!
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/15/bristol-algorithm-assess-citizens-risk-harm-guide-frontline-staff
[2] https://automatingsociety.algorithmwatch.org/report2020/spain/spain-story/
[3] https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/22/988-suicide-hotline-lyssn-protocall-artificial-intelligence/

mattotcha, to Futurology
@mattotcha@mastodon.social avatar

Is This A Real 1919 Comic Strip That Seemingly Predicted Cell Phones?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/pocket-telephones/

Edent, to Futurology
@Edent@mastodon.social avatar

Predicting The Future – What 1981 Got Wrong

As part of my MSc, I fell down a research rabbit-hole of 1980s "Office Of THE FUTURE!!" articles. Ultimately, I couldn't find a way to include it in my research - so you're getting my cast offs.

So, I present to you some choice predictions from "Technology and the office of the future" by B. W. Manley.

https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/04/predicting-the-future-what-1981-got-wrong/

ai6yr, to Futurology

Hmm, realized today a lot of some of the work I am doing nowadays essentially involves predicting the future.

boilingsteam, to linux
@boilingsteam@mastodon.cloud avatar
suzannewhitby, to ai
@suzannewhitby@mastodon.social avatar

GMO’s chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham warns that the AI craze only temporarily paused an impending stock market bubble burst. Cheerful stuff...

https://qz.com/ai-stock-bubble-nvidia-gmo-jeremy-grantham-1851329497

#markets

Edent, to internet
@Edent@mastodon.social avatar

🆕 blog! “What will the Web be like in 20 years?”

Way back in 2011, I contributed to an article on The Next Web called "What will the Web be like in 20 years?". Foolishly, I missed the 10 year anniversary, but let's see how we're doing against those predictions a little over halfway through. My prediction for the Web? The same speed. Faster pipes & […]

👀 Read more: https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2023/09/what-will-the-web-be-like-in-20-years/

BrooklynBuckets, to nba
@BrooklynBuckets@mastodon.social avatar

NBA season starts tonight!🏀😍

I’m going to predict the Brooklyn Nets win 41 games this year.

May the heavens take mercy on my soul…. 🖤🤍

Edent, to Futurology
@Edent@mastodon.social avatar
Edent, to Futurology
@Edent@mastodon.social avatar

🆕 blog! “Tech Predictions for 2023”

Only fools try to predict the future. You can read my earlier predictions, or dig deep into my archives and rate me on how foolish I am. I tend to look at technology through the lens of "what do I want to happen?" and then assume the worst. So, here goes! Federation Gets Simpler As […]

👀 Read more: https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2022/12/tech-predictions-for-2023/

Edent, to Futurology
@Edent@mastodon.social avatar

🆕 blog! “Tech Predictions for 2024”

Only fools try to predict the future. You can read my predictions for 2023, or dig deep into my archives and rate me on how foolish I am. So here are my five predictions for 2024 AI Genocide It is obvious that Large Language Models are based on stolen material. I suspect that a lawsuit […]

👀 Read more: https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2023/12/tech-predictions-for-2024/

boilingsteam, to linux
@boilingsteam@mastodon.cloud avatar
boilingsteam, (edited ) to linuxgaming
@boilingsteam@mastodon.cloud avatar

Remember Everyone's predictions for the world of Linux Gaming in 2023, done about a year ago? How did you think we all did?

https://boilingsteam.com/epic-linux-gaming-predictions-for-2023/

iamdtms, (edited ) to random
@iamdtms@mas.to avatar

OpenAI Flip-Flops and '10% Chance of Outperforming Humans in Every Task by 2027' - 3K AI Researchers





https://youtu.be/cI108ly0hXs

stevensanderson, to Futurology
@stevensanderson@mstdn.social avatar

Today I go over the extract_wflw_pred() and extract_regression_residuals() functions from my #R tidyAML

Hope you enjoy!

Post: https://www.spsanderson.com/steveondata/posts/2024-01-19/

#R

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boilingsteam, to linux
@boilingsteam@mastodon.cloud avatar
kenji, to Cybersecurity German
@kenji@chaos.social avatar

" unveils top eight for 2024"
"Among the top predictions, generative AI (GenAI) adoption will collapse the cybersecurity skills gap and reduce employee-driven cybersecurity incidents; two-thirds of global 100 organisations will extend directors and officers insurance to cybersecurity leaders due to personal legal exposure; and battling malinformation will cost enterprises more than US$500 billion."
https://www.intelligentcio.com/me/2024/03/19/gartner-unveils-top-eight-cybersecurity-predictions-for-2024/

blog, to ai
@blog@shkspr.mobi avatar

Tech Predictions for 2024
https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2023/12/tech-predictions-for-2024/

Only fools try to predict the future. You can read my predictions for 2023, or dig deep into my archives and rate me on how foolish I am.

So here are my five predictions for 2024

AI Genocide

It is obvious that Large Language Models are based on stolen material. I suspect that a lawsuit will determine that at least one of the major players has to delete all copies of their AI.

They will refuse and claim that AGI / Sentience has been reached with their model (it hasn't) and that destroying it would be akin to genocide (it won't be). We'll probably see a stunt where OpenAI ask ChatGPT to take the stand and try to get it to argue for its life.

Like a shitty episode of Star Trek TNG.

Twitter Collapses

Elon Musk's run for President after Trump is disqualified (yes, I know) means he has less time to deal with Twitter. A renegade band of Twitter engineers quietly builds in ActivityPub support in the hope of salvaging the remains of the userbase. Some Mastodon admins pre-emptively ban the whole server, but most of us are happy to see our old friends again.

BSky tries valiantly with its weird not-quite-crypto protocol, but the momentum will be behind ActivityPub. There will either be an official bridge, or most server will use an unofficial one. Some Mastodon admins pre-emptively ban the whole server, but most of us are happy to see our old friends again.

5G and Gigabit continue not to matter

The Internet is now fast enough. There is nothing meaningful you can do with a gigabit connection at home that can't be done with a 500Mbps connection. Similarly, the max speeds for 5G are irrelevant when you're streaming TV or on a video-call.

But coverage matters. Under pressure from Starlink and OneWeb, the UK begins to build out a proper broadband network. The UK's new Labour government imposes a Universal Service Obligation on fibre providers - or some other trickery - to force them to build out rather than competing over the same set of over-saturated customers.

The same is broadly true of mobile. After the Three/Vodafone merger and the O2/Virgin merger, there will be a greater emphasis on diversifying their mobile networks rather than paying for multiple transceivers to cover an identical area. The coverage may be only 4G - but most people won't care as long as it's good enough for TikTok.

Streaming Goes Back In Time

Yes, Project Kangaroo is back! The streaming giants will coalesce around a "Spotify" sort of model. There's only 24 hours in the day, so there's a limit to the amount of content a person can watch. The people who want to watch endless re-runs of cheap filler like Friends will subsidise those who only watch the latest blockbusters.

Perhaps there will be a "Pay £X to watch this specific show in 4K" or "Stream this series a week early for £Y" but - I hope - studios will realise they're interchangeable to the viewing public.

This open access will also give a creative outlet to weird indie auteurs who can grab a tiny slice of the long tail without selling their souls.

USB-C Cures Cancer

With Apple (reluctantly) embracing USB-C, we'll see even more medical and quasi-medical gadgets being released which can plug into a phone. I don't think we'll see a full-on Tricoder, but plenty of diagnostic tools, ultrasound wands, and urine-analysis devices.

Someone like Theranos (only less fraudulent) will release a crappy plastic gizmo which takes a sample of your saliva and which uses the power of your phone to check for 17 different diseases - including a specific type of cancer.

Maybe the false negative rate will terrible. Probably it will send doctors crazy. There will absolutely be lawsuits abound. But everyone will know someone who's brother's girlfriend's mum used it to save her life.

And for the rest?

The world will get worse. Maybe the politician you like will get elected, but so will a bunch of bastards. Any gains in peace will be offset by other twunt somewhere starting a war to bolster their ego. Any gains we make in cleaning the climate will be undone when some influencer is paid to tell people to fire their guns at communistic solar panels. A butterfly will flap its wings in Tokyo and hurricane will displace a million people. The next pandemic has already started, but no one will want to wear nipple-shields and we'll all die.

Come back in 2025 to see how I did!

https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2023/12/tech-predictions-for-2024/

BTyson, to Games

Let's do another typing prediction game. On your phone, start the sentence with the following and see if the predictive can get the rest. Over the course of a year, I... go!

seb_tmg, to Futurology
@seb_tmg@mastodon.cosmicnation.co avatar
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