Quote: "Oceans North is celebrating the decision of the Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators (AECO) to avoid transiting through #Nunavut’s Eclipse Sound this summer—a decision that could provide some relief to the region’s struggling #narwhal population."
Today in 1950, the St. Roch arrived in Halifax, becoming the 1st vessel to circumnavigate North America, going from Halifax to Vancouver, then through the Arctic back to Halifax.
She is also the first vessel to complete a voyage through the Northwest Passage going west to east.
Anomalous warmth is projected over large portions of the #Arctic for the next week, including parts of northern Canada (around the Hudson Bay) and Siberia...
Sea surface temperature departures from 1991-2020 average around #Alaska for the week ending May 26, 2023 from NOAA/PSL/ESRL data. Intensifying differences across the Bering Sea due to late #seaice in Alaska waters. Gulf of Alaska #sst above average in the east and slightly below average in the west. #akwx#Arctic#Oceanography#ClimateMonitoring @Climatologist49
Early look at May 2023 temperature departures from average around the #Arctic (observed plus wx model forecast the remainder of the month) courtesy K. Haustein. European and especially the central Canadian Arctic warmest relative to average, northeast Canada and Greenland coolest. Alaska and Asian Russia mixed and mostly not extreme. #akwx#ClimateMonitoring@Climatologist49@Ruth_Mottram@SigneAaboe
So, it is possible for a group to make the collective decision to leave Twitter. Scientists "suffering insults and mass-spam are abandoning Twitter," and setting up shop on Mastodon.
"Glaciologist @Ruth_Mottram had more than 10,000 followers on Twitter but left in February and joined an alternative scientists' forum powered by Mastodon."
My April 'climate viz of the month' blog is now posted at https://zacklabe.com/climate-viz-of-the-month/. It broadly discusses why climate scientists consider model experiments called large ensembles, especially for thinking about climate change in the #Arctic. #SciComm#DataViz
The animation shows a climate change projection (moderate emission scenario) for the #Arctic from 2015 through 2100 using https://gfdl.noaa.gov/spear/.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) press release 17. May 2023 - "There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global #temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas."
Key points
The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024.
The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This is used as a baseline because it was before the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.
There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years is also 98%.
#Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the #Sahel, northern #Europe, #Alaska and northern #Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the #Amazon and parts of #Australia.
Woo hoo…as of 205am today (Tuesday) Fairbanks has entered the brightest ten weeks of the year: civil twilight is continuous now until the early hours of July 28th. Nights so brite you've gotta wear shades. 😎 #akwx#Arctic@Climatologist49
Have a good week! Here's my Monday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 13th lowest on record (JAXA data)...
• about 340,000 km² above the 2010s mean
• about 170,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 620,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 1,020,000 km² below the 1980s mean
Temperature anomalies over the last month (left), 3 months (center), and 12 months (right) in the #Arctic. The persistent warm anomalies closer to Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya are associated with low sea-ice concentration.
Have a great weekend! For your Friday update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 15th lowest on record (JAXA data)...
• about 210,000 km² above the 2010s mean
• about 190,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 580,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 1,060,000 km² below the 1980s mean